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Eli 🍑🥕 | 🦋 @elium2.com Profile picture
Eli 🍑🥕 | 🦋 @elium2.com
@elium2
Leftist political analyst with ADHD, focusing on Georgia & RI. Sometimes I talk about justice. | cishet, autistic, 26 | @elium2.com on Bluesky
Nov 11, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Thread for OR-05 updates OR-05 update from Marion Co.

Chavez-DeRemer (R) +3,518 (72.1%)
McLeod-Skinner (D) +1,351

Chavez-DeRemer previously had 67.4% of the vote in Marion.

Net: R +2,167
Districtwide margin now: R +6,993
bit.ly/22geTracking
Nov 10, 2022 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
What are some U.S. House races people would be interested in tracking spreadsheets from me for? I'm considering WA, OR, CA, and AZ in particular but am open to other states if people are interested
Nov 10, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Some municipal-level results in Fulton:
Dems won Sandy Springs in the Senate, Gov, LG, SoS, and AG races (although by only 2% for SoS)
Republicans won Alpharetta and Roswell by nontrivial margins in the four state races above, but Warnock won both cities by ~6% Mountain Park's Fulton portion went to Warnock, Bailey, and Jordan but also to Kemp and Raffensperger (a small part is in Cherokee Co.)

Warnock won Chattahoochee Hills, 49.8% to 48.1%, which I…admit I did not expect.
Nov 10, 2022 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
Running some legislative-district-level results for RI statewide candidates. Stay tuned… One striking result: James Lathrop (R) only lost SD 38 by 0.1% so far. Even if the final margin is bluer, he almost certainly had the best performance of any statewide Republican in that district in over a decade. (Yes, he lives nearby, but still.)
Nov 9, 2022 • 10 tweets • 1 min read
I'm about to run the numbers just to be safe, but, I mean, it's hard to imagine either Senate candidate winning outright. (Yes, I know DDHQ has already called it.)
Nov 9, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Yesterday, state treasurer Seth Magaziner (D) defeated former Cranston mayor Allan Fung (R) in Rhode Island's second congressional district, holding the seat for Democrats after longtime Rep. Jim Langevin retired. Map of the Nov. 8, 2022 gen... This was a hard-fought race, and some forecasters thought Fung was favored, but in the end he couldn’t overcome partisanship and an October blitz from Magaziner and Dems.
Nov 9, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
There will NOT be a statewide recount in Georgia for the Nov. 8 results unless Raffensperger decides he wants one. Our recount laws cover narrow losses, but not narrowly advancing (or not) to a runoff. This is basic math: Oliver is receiving well over 0.5% of the vote (the recount threshold), so Walker and Warnock can’t be within 0.5% of each other unless it’s going to a runoff anyway.
Nov 9, 2022 • 29 tweets • 6 min read
RI result coverage thread Voters in Newport are rejecting the regional school district with Middletown so far. ri.gov/election/resul…
Nov 9, 2022 • 60 tweets • 11 min read
Okay, I have some news for everyone about the Georgia election. Well, it's more of a reminder, really. I want everyone to know that… Georgia's election result will include legally cast ballots - and ONLY legally cast ballots. Period. Image
Nov 8, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Here's how much money some of the people being discussed for Georgia Speaker (and Ralston himself) donated to other political candidates in 2022 Q3 and in October.
M. Hatchett: $52.1K/$13.6K
Ralston: $62.5K/$10K
J. Jones: $55.6K/$3K
Powell: $33.5K/$1K
Fleming: $30.5K/$1K Yes, Hatchett appears to have given slightly more than Ralston himself. (I tallied these figures myself, and I should probably note that I'm pretty tired.)
Apr 9, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
In January, Raphael Warnock defeated Kelly Loeffler by just over 2% to become the first Black person ever elected to the U.S. Senate from Georgia. I calculated and mapped the results by state House district. Despite shifting party coalitions, the map retains a Republican bias. Map of the U.S. Senate special runoff on Jan. 5, 2021, in Ge Warnock won 47.78% of districts (47 & 7/9% to be exact)
Apr 8, 2021 • 8 tweets • 1 min read
Here's an updated list of my least favorite current heads of government:
1. Bolsonaro (Brazil)
2. Modi (India)
3. ErdoÄźan (Turkey)
4. Duterte (Philippines)
5. el-Sisi (Egypt)
6. Netanyahu (Israel)
7. Duque (Colombia)
8. Morrison (Australia) ErdoÄźan will always hold a special place in my heart but there just isn't enough to justify ranking the leader of the 19th largest country over the leaders of two of the top six, I don't think
Mar 19, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Georgia pres-by-HD update: I am retracting my previous statement that Donald Trump won HD 117 in 2020, pending closer analysis of the results in Jackson County. I had already examined them to death, but there are some red flags regarding my calculations that suggest I underestimated Biden by a couple hundred votes. On a related note, I believe Kelly Loeffler won the district by about 0.5% (I previously had her margin at 1%).
Mar 19, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Spot the issue with this resolution (besides the fact that it isn't signed)
Mar 18, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Adding to the list of Biden and/or Warnock flips (so far I have Roswell, Alpharetta, Loganville, Pooler, Hephzibah, Suwanee and Dacula).

Bainbridge: Kemp +0.5% → Warnock +2.1%
Tyrone: Kemp +3.4% → Warnock +2.1%
Mar 18, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Thread for 06/15 special elections in Georgia. I've added the races to replace Gary Barham (R) in Henry County Commission D3 and Mike Edmondson (NP) in Muscogee County (Columbus) School Board District 2 to start off my list. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Political tensions have already arisen regarding the temporary appointment to fill Barham's seat until the June 15 special. A local law signed March 8 requires the appointee to be a Republican (because Barham was). henryherald.com/news/henry-boa…
Mar 17, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I hate to break this to everyone but Georgia Democrats did not lose the State House because of a lack of money It was a mix of gerrymandering, ticket-splitting, and the fact that only one Democrat won even a plurality in the state on November 3
Mar 17, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
who at the @ajc approved this headline??? The police may have decided to do PR for this guy but you don’t have to help them!
Mar 16, 2021 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Georgia's election result will include legally cast ballots - and ONLY legally cast ballots. Period. Image The polls have closed! This will be a thread of results for today's Georgia elections.
Mar 16, 2021 • 39 tweets • 8 min read
Here's the electorate in Warner Robins through last night. Nearly 2,000 people have voted already, almost half the total Nov. 2019 turnout there. While it was still majority-Black with some room to spare (58.5%), Black voters only made up 53.9% of voters from 03/05 to 03/15. American Indian or Alaskan ... About 1% of Election Day voters from the Senate runoff had voted through yesterday among both Black and white voters. But 12.4% of Black early runoff voters had voted, versus just 6.6% of white early runoff voters.
Feb 6, 2021 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
Atlanta: Felicia Moore reports that she raised $43,528.00 for her mayoral campaign from January 20-31, none of which came from her campaign account for Council President. She spent $3,530.00 (including $3,500.00 on fundraising consulting), leaving her with $39,998.00 on hand. The first page of Moore's report, evidencing that the documeThe summary page of Moore's report, which backs up what I sa Moore received $101.00 from Fair Fight Action COO/CFO Glen Freedman. I didn't see any other contributions from notable figures, although one donor does happen to share the name of a U.S. Senator (not one from Georgia).