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Emil Goldfarb Profile picture
Emil Goldfarb
@emilio_gold
Hebrew profile: https://t.co/IPApjoNHiY
Aug 26, 2023 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
$DIS has just reached a ten-year low and fintwit is full of bad takes when the real story is fairly simple.
imo the reason that investors fail to grasp Disney is that the actual business is differentfrom the perceived business
Image The superficial view is that Disney is a content flywheel. You've got the unique IPs in the middle which drive everything like a well-oiled machine, but reality is different.
First let's establish that Basically Disney consists of 2 main businesses:
1. Parks
2. Linear networks
Feb 23, 2022 • 27 tweets • 7 min read
I've been fascinated with $APP. It is one of the better run companies and the founder is great, but I can't shake the notion the business is under a huge risk from $AAPL privacy crusade. I'll summarize my findings in the following thread and be happy to get feedback Applovin started as a marketing tool for mobile games (under the AppDiscovery brand). the service is straightforward: Let's say I have a game app and I want to increase my user base. I go to Applovin and tell them I'm willing to pay 1$ for each install
shorturl.at/yzSV7
Dec 12, 2021 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
The situation in $SFIX is fascinating to me. Underneath it all, there is a really strong niche business with fabulous unit economics but because of the Silicon Valley "change the world" mentality, the company is straying away from its niche and hurting the core business I've seen comparisons to $APRN and claims that Stich Fix doesn't really have a business and those primarily stem from the high churn figures. Yes, $SFIX churn is really high, but that is not a problem in itself as long as the unit economics work
Dec 14, 2020 • 18 tweets • 5 min read
We've already established that $INTC is about to lose serious market share in the PC market but truth be told, Intel's most important segment is probably what it terms as the "Data Center Group", it's data center business. So what are Intel's prospects there? Let's do a deep dive While Intel's CCG segment (the PC segment) is fairly stagnant, The Data center segment (henceforth DCG) has been growing nicely for years. 2019 revenue are ~50% above 2015 and the segment has shown nice growth 2020 so far
Dec 2, 2020 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
$INTC might be the best short opportunity since Nokia circa 2008. Why?
Black. Magic. Fuckery.
Follow me on the path to Intel's destruction and it all starts with the M1
singhkays.com/blog/apple-sil… By all indications the $AAPL M1 is a major breakthrough. A $999 M1 powered Macbook Air blows out of the water a fully fledged $4,000 Intel based Macbook Pro in both performance and battery life. it's completely staggering
Apr 23, 2020 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
1) I'm contemplating a short on $DIS. let's crowdsource it fintwit. I'll lay the basis of the short thesis and be happy to receive feedback, especially from the long crowd. this is going to be an ongoing project as I'm only beginning the research, so we'll see what happens 2) I'm taking a SOTP approach, basically treating $DIS as 3 distinct businesses:
a) Media networks
b) parks
c) Studio + DTC
I'll be using Deutsche's SOTP valuation from October as the foundation
Sep 25, 2019 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
I've become mega bullish on $SFIX, at current valuation it's the best opportunity I've encountered in a long time. I'm looking for some pushback, what do you have for me fintwit? I guess most are kind of familiar with the company. for those who aren't, here is an excellent thread on the company from @svafier
Jan 29, 2019 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
1) a quick $ROKU thread: I don't get the $ROKU thesis. a bunch of smart folks seem to love it, so I'm probably missing something.
I'll lay my brief back of the envelope here and be happy to get feedback 2) Roku is currently at 27M active accounts and $25 platform ARPU, growing really fast. The hardware business is a de facto break even marketing function and is not relevant for the long term business so I'm just ignoring it.
Jan 23, 2019 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
$NFLX let's go Obviously, no hard data on viewership on Netflix but there are indications that originals make about 35% of the time spend and it's rapidly increasing.
I argue it is already at critical mass and Netflix is not vulnerable to rising content costs from external suppliers
Dec 14, 2018 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
1) OK I thought the Robinhood scam was common knowledge, let's go through it. TLDR: Robinhood fees are hidden. It charges much more than $IBKR per trade (by some calculations, more than 50x!) 2) Robinhood sales client orderflows. That's not debatable, it's in the fine print somewhere hidden at the edge of the website.
I'll let them explain what they do:
support.robinhood.com/hc/en-us/artic…
Nov 29, 2018 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
1) Had a little back & forth with @Fritz844 on Netflix's cash "burn" and whether $NFLX will need to cut content spend substantially in case of a stock price decline or in a event where the capital markets access will be shut 2) That is a common misunderstanding and is fairly easy do disprove by quickly skimming through the financials. I will get there in a sec, but it might be instructive to explain Netflix's contend spend strategy real quick before.
Sep 17, 2018 • 36 tweets • 10 min read
OK let's talk $UBNT

Discussion on the company has been dominated by the fraud/shenanigans crowd since the @CitronResearch hit piece

I want do change that so let's do a deep dive on the fundamentals of the company with the wild assumption that the company is completely legit short history:
@RobertPera has founded the company as a side project while working at Apple. he officially left and started Ubiquiti in 2005.
Pera had an idea for an outdoor wireless WiFi product and successfully launched it later that year for a great success
Jul 2, 2018 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
might be an opportunity to clarify my views on Apple vs Spotify.
TLDR Apple will surely win on iOS (and by extension in the US), at maturity market will probably be split around 60%/40% in Apple's favour. On Android apple isn't relevant and Spotify will be the dominant platform. long version:
1. Apple benefits from being pre-installed on iPhones. the competitive landscape is similar to the Apple/Google map wars. despite Apple maps being significantly worse than Google maps, it was used 3.5x more.
educba.com/highlights-of-…
May 30, 2018 • 24 tweets • 4 min read
Mega $SPOT thread incoming... 1/23) In the past year I've done a lot of work on $NFLX. My well documented conclusion was that Netflix is the structural winner in the global video market thanks to the inherent fixed costs nature of its business model, and will be highly profitable at scale