Anyone who says tomorrow’s FOMC meeting is so important or the most important one of your life should be avoided like the plague.

Let me tell you what will likely happen. The Fed moves like the Titanic, they’re almost always behind the curve. But the real way to say it is 👇 They’re almost always behind the market. So, the 2yr UST currently trades with a 4.24% yield. After a cut tomorrow Fed funds will be set in a 4.25-4.5% range.

The Fed was done being restrictive as inflation has normalized as best as it’s going to, but they’re not ready to…

Quick 🧵on Putin’s speech/

I’ve never once said anything positive about Putin, but to be honest he said a lot of things that ring to me.

Western leaders are preventing their own people from freedom of thought & they are destroying family which is what binds 🇺🇸’s together..Cont They want to normalize becoming a trans, it’s not normal. It’s a mental illness. And that’s fine if you want to do it, but keep it yourself. I’m sure I have other mental illnesses also, like trading options 😂

I’m not homophobic, have gay friends and love them, but…cont.

Been meaning to post this 🧵 for the tweeps who haven’t been around since 2000 👇

1/ Similar to traditional bear markets not everything tops together and not everything bottoms together. 2/ If you think about high beta, profitless tech companies, small caps etc most of those all peaked in early 2021 and have been in bear markets for 18+ months.

A quick vol 🧵

1/ Since the pandemic began vol of vol e.g. $VVIX has been elevated relative to the years before the pandemic, but in May/June that finally abated. 2/ Since late January/early February 2022 vol of vol e.g. the price of vol has done nothing, but grind lower, but just over the last 2 weeks that downtrend has seemingly ended.

1/ In regards to my tweet yesterday about fraud and markets not being random here is one footprint of two periods 14 years apart with precisely repetitive behavior.

🧵 2/ Back in 2008, $ES drew a similar pattern as it has this year(by now we’re all aware of this), but what many might not have noticed is the spike of the 200 day on August 16th 2022 precisely mirrored the spike on May 19th 2008 with factors other than just a chart pattern.

Had dinner last night with partners of a 30+yr old securities firm that specializes in trading equities and derivatives for top quant funds and other HF’s.

I asked them if they had the expertise to explain how market makers effect prices and this is what I learned. 🧵 2/ For starters, and as we all know there are really only 3 or 4 MM’s that control most of the flow.

This CEO had dinner just 2 weeks ago with the CEO of one of the top mkt making firms, won’t say who.

In the words of that market maker, being one “is like living in the matrix”.

The effects of de-globalizing due to a great reset will have inflationary repercussions that linger for quarters and very possibly years. 🧵 It is clear that Russia and China are attempting to drive a global reset which doesn’t include the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

The system that exists today was built on the U.S exporting dollars and importing goods.

So let me get this straight. The fraud mother fuckers buying 10, 20,30 contracts of ES right now trying to hold futures up when all major markets in the world are closed are sure that the last 20 minutes today was all the selling we’ll see for now.

Futures should be abolished. This industry is a cesspool of frauds. They rigged LIBOR, a market tied to 300 TRILLION in derivatives. If they can rig LIBOR the whole thing is a complete fraud if and when they want it to be.

1/ Regarding my tweet about a potential 1987 tech led crash, here is a thread.

For disclosure, I do not manage money other than my own, nor do I have any insights/advantage over anyone else.

I head a secondary private mkts team for an IB in NYC & this is my opinion. 2/ Again, I do not work in any regard with public mkt securities.

Ok, now that that’s out of the way, here we go. This is solely my opinion and may not at all play out...I’m open to all outcomes and will change my opinion/not marry it for very long should this not develop.

I think the entire market is a Ponzi scheme. Hear me out...

Thread/

Es breaks todays low tonight and just gets slowly bid back up. This happens over and over again when key lows get broken and volume fades.

Who can possibly have the confidence to buy every single broken low? Intellectually it doesn’t make any sense, technically it does.

Technically meaning dealers trade to increase order flow and often trade with each other.

If somebody sells stock X down from 105 to 100 & a couple dealers take the inventory they have a blended cost basis above 100

Thread:

From an anesthesiologist friend that works in a top hospital.

Columbia Med school grad....Chimed in about the Gilead study: I saw that. Hopefully it works. On the other hand, no control group, their exclusion criteria were basically people you know would do worse, and the data/talk from China and Italy wasn't great.

I'm changing my profile name to Endless Capital LLC temporarily. I'm doing it because I want to make a prediction that Fed policies have led to unforeseen risks in the marketplace.

Risks we cannot quantify because liquidity has masked them. Those who trade the market know... ...exactly what i'm talking about. There is an endless capital buffer underneath the market that wakes up on every downward volume spike, whether it be 1 day, 1 hour or 1 minute. It's always there and seems completely mechanical. And its driven asset values for the majority...

Thread:

1/My wife works in the fashion industry for a private company that sells through a major U.S retailer and other outfits. Today she received an email from a factory that partially reopened. 2/ In the email the woman describes the situation in China as a political mess in each province. She goes on to say most factories are either opening in 2+ weeks from now or not opening indefinitely.

Those wondering about what’s going on in repo land, I think I have the answer....

The treasury issuance that many macro’s have been talking about is the answer but what makes this story so interesting is the timing of Dudley’s piece regarding how the Fed shouldn’t.... Enable Donald Trump. Mark my words, Powell is going to be grilled on this tomorrow. The Fed essentially holds the key to Trump’s future as president or not. It’s because the funding shortage in the repo markets might be due to the treasury issuance draining reserves out of...