Nafnlaus Profile picture
Tyl hаmynkju eff thú ketur leѕyth tettа. Endorsements: "Relentless!" - Gordon Johnson Pronouns: Dark Queen of the Firey Realm / Guardian of the Black Runes
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12 Apr
@AukeHoekstra @truth_tesla Huh? Corrosion is one of molten salt's *biggest* problems. And thorium does nothing with respect to corrosion (it's also very immature and has a lot of problems).

But that's just the start of problems.

First off is the fact that you're dealing with toxic materials. And not...
@AukeHoekstra @truth_tesla toxic in the normal sense, but *insanely* toxic, where even vanishingly small amounts of many radioisotopes, quantities you wouldn't give a rat's arse about in any other industry, are too unacceptably toxic for release.

Nuclear produces a broad spectrum of all sorts of these...
@AukeHoekstra @truth_tesla insanely toxic compounds, and each has its own physical and chemical properties. It can be a solid, a liquid, a gas, mobile or immobile in salt, mobile or immoble in water, compatible with steel but not alumium, compatible with alumium but not steel, compatible with this alloy...
Read 15 tweets
10 Apr
THREAD: For everyone who is making an argument akin to, "If Elon says it, then Karpathy must agree, and it must be true", let's take a look at just a tiny bit of the past five years of statements from Elon about FSD.
Remember back in early 2018 when you gained the ability to summon your car from NY to LA?

Okay okay, maybe that didn't happen, but remember when Tesla did it for real in 2019?

Read 9 tweets
2 Apr
A friendly old man lives near me and occasionally comes up to chat. Earlier this year we idly started talking about the stock market and I mentioned how well $TSLA had performed and why I think the company was so promising. Just idle chit chat.

Fast forward to the other day. I..
... am outside working on my greenhouse-trailer and he comes up to chat. He brings up Tesla again, and mentions that the price was down to $600. I smile and mention that one who invested at orders of magnitude lower prices hardly loses sleep over these sort of swings. Then...
...he seemed a little nervous and informs me that, based on what I had told him in our previous chat, he had bought $TSLA at $800, only to see it crash (I had no idea he was thinking about investing).

This is a guy who has never even heard of Model Y or Cybertruck. No clue...
Read 5 tweets
11 Mar
Thought: while not applicable to their initial purchases, @elonmusk may eventually end up with sea launch platforms that have no "platform" at all - just a tower.

Consider the new "rocket catching" approach. It's intriguing; it lets you cut a lot of mass off the rocket while...
letting you use as massive of a shock absorption system as you can dream up. Furthermore, a landed rocket cannot fall over. So long as it can navigate into roughly the right place, it's a good landing.

Now let's consider sea launch with a platform.

(1) Arm catches SH ...
(2) Arm rotates, sets it down
(3) Some sort of strongback attaches to it to keep it stable and reconnect GSE.
(4) Arm catches Starship
(5) Arm aligns Starship with SH for remating. SH isn't attached to the tower, so this may take adjustment.
(6) Something connects GSE to Starship
Read 10 tweets
10 Mar
Hey @Transport_EU, @AdinaValean - exactly why is your
Team Leader for Automated/Connected Vehicles and Safety sharing an attack article sourced from a short seller against a company he's in charge of regulating?…

The bias was obvious, but this is blatant
Please tell me that the guy in charge of approving features knows the difference between an SAE level (what the vehicle *makes the driver do*, for whatever regulatory or liability reasons) vs. how good it actually is at driving.
Please tell me that the guy in charge of approving features knows that mandating driver attention for "FSD City Streets" (aka "FSD Beta") has *always been the case*, would have been a shock if it wasn't going to be in wide release, and that "FSD Beta" != "FSD".
Read 6 tweets
15 Feb
Fascinating read from Jason about the Model S/X range loss issue. My initial take (and apparently his initial take as well) was wrong; I had interpreted charging limits then range loss as being due to new data about degradation with the new Si-bearing anodes, with concerns about
... longevity and fires. The media reporting on fires also affected Jason, misleading him into initially thinking it was an overvoltage issue.

Turns out it was due to sporadic misreadings of the voltage of individual cell groups, and the inability to distinguish them from...
A) legitimate voltage spikes, or B) a stuck MOSFET causing cell misbalancing. With no way to tell if the transients were real, they had to assume they were. Voltages were limited to the peak spike voltage, and the user's range indicator was switched to use the value calculated...
Read 8 tweets
30 Jan
Tesla's new steering yoke appears to be analogous to an airplane steering yoke. But an airplane's yoke does not only control roll, but also pitch. Indeed, there's the potential for *five* extra axes (up-down, left-right, front-back, & two extra roll axes)

Why do I bring this up?
In normal driving, I expect most drivers to prefer a traditional locked steering position. But we must remember that ***Plaid has three independent motors now***. The car is capable of so much more than traditional handling; it should even be able to do stunts like spin in place.
The degrees of freedom get even more extreme when you get to the Roadster with the SpaceX options package. Now you have *every degree of freedom possible* in terms of maneuvering.

How do you control this with just a roll-only steering wheel? Answer: you can't.
Read 5 tweets
28 Jan
Honestly, I really want to know *how* they're getting a 0.208 Cd. That's significantly better than a car of this general shape would normally get.

Note that most manufacturers BS about their drag coefficients - but at least thusfar, Teslas usually match their claims in testing.
I wonder if this is all just a long slog of minor improvements, or whether they're implementing any of the long-proposed "cheats" for drag reduction, such as base bleed or suction to maintain flow attachment. I don't see any signs of that, but...
Either way, the claimed Cd is now 90% that of the claimed Cd for the Model 3. I suspect (whether from S not being as good as claimed, or 3 having since improved) that it's closer than that. But either way, it seems they're overcoming Model S's greater cross-sectional area.
Read 5 tweets
24 Dec 20
The "Meh" Factor Of Lithium Titanate Batteries

So there's been a lot of chatter about @Gfilche's rumours that Apple plans to use a Toshiba lithium titanate battery in their electric vehicle, due out four years from five years ago, and now four years from today.

But what is it?
@LimitingThe gave a pretty good description, but in short, it's an old technology where instead of graphite+silicon, the anode is lithium titanate nanocrystals. These offer a very stable structure with a massive surface area for high power densities and great longevity.
They also, however, are not only very expensive, but are a fundamentally lower voltage chemistry - and lithium intercalation densities are not great either (you have a lot of titanium and oxygen relative to how much lithium you can intercalate).
Read 13 tweets
23 Nov 20
Time for another #BearyTale - "The Tale of The Demand Limitation"!
According to this tale, Tesla gave the game away when they started listing peak capacities in their earnings reports, which surely can be assumed to have near-zero downtime related to holidays, upgrades, supplier limitations, etc, and pretty please don't read the fine print.
Gee, then, I wonder what happens when we plot out the ratio of peak capacity to production as total capacity changes dramatically due to new lines and COVID closures.

(Averaging between EOQ rates and not counting GF3 Q3 '19, as it's listed as "preproduction" and was near-zero)
Read 7 tweets
22 Nov 20
A quick thread for the #ButNorway! bears: Let's just check your acceptance of a few basic facts here.

1) You do realize that Tesla's global sales have consistently grown corresponding to *new capacity growth*, right?
2) You do realize that this corresponds to *production limitation*, regardless of where they choose to allocate production (wait times) or what pricing they choose - right?

3) You do realize that a company exponentially shifts demand with linear adjustments in prices, right?
4) You do realize that the indicator of how much a company needs to boost demand, relative to their prod. capacity, is encapsulated in their auto margins, right?

5) You do realize that Tesla's margins are *growing*, and are now a huge >27% wo/credits, >22% w/credits - right?
Read 14 tweets
16 Nov 20
@momsbyof3 @seastar898 @Creeks2013 @oldcanadaseries Their backstory is crazy. Maye's father was a member of Technocracy, which Canada feared aimed to overthrow the government. He worked in tons of random jobs, incl. help establish chiropracty in Canada. He took his whole fam to SA and they lived like Indiana Jones, looking for a..
@momsbyof3 @seastar898 @Creeks2013 @oldcanadaseries ... lost city (which they never found). In SA, Maye started dating Errol Musk, who she too late realized was a serious manipulator and abuser; he even manipulated her into marrying him by telling all her friends and family that she had said yes, so she'd be too embarassed to...
@momsbyof3 @seastar898 @Creeks2013 @oldcanadaseries ... back out. She finally did divorce him, with three children from the marriage. The older two wanted nothing to do with Errol, but Errol's mother convinced a young Elon that his father would be lonely without him, so he chose to stay - which he quickly came to regret. Errol...
Read 10 tweets
11 Nov 20
Elon: <some journalists are only interested in innuendo, namecalling, and outright falsehoods about me; I'm done being nice to them>

@nickbilton : <writes article full of innuendo, name calling, and outright falsehoods, while damning Musk for not being nice to people like him>
The lack of self-awareness by @nickbilton is staggering.

Or maybe he literally is this blind to his extensive use of innuendo, name calling, and outright falsehoods? Nick, would it help if I held up a mirror to you and your work?
"vainglorious" - @elonmusk's Twitter feed is a *constant* stream of him pushing away praise of himself and heaping it on others. Here, less than 24 hours ago:

"villain" - Gee, why would Elon think negatively of you?
Read 21 tweets
11 Oct 20
Every now and then, the old lie, "Martin Eberhard founded Tesla, Elon Musk stole it from him!" crops up.

Facts matter, so let's break down the actual timeline.

'94: Musk does a summer internship developing advanced capacitors in hopes of being able to use them for EVs.
'94: AC Propulsion (Gage, Cocconi) release the first version of the AC-150 powertrain.

'94: Musk founds Zip2 along with Kimbal and Greg Kouri. Musk's investment was the PC.
Fall, '94: Musk moves to California to attend Stanford for postgraduate physics studies, but immediately drops out due to the internet boom and the rising success of his company Zip2.

'97: Gage starts tzero construction. Cocconi further develops the powertrain.
Read 33 tweets
9 Oct 20
Why does Marty keep insisting on destroying his own life? What's wrong with him? No, seriously, what medically is wrong with him?

Threats of violence the CEO of the company you're in a lawsuit with....? This goes beyond the phrase "not legally advisable"... Image
He's not just hurting himself. His TSLAQ hedge fund benefactors who saw him as some sort of weapon to use against Tesla are potentially going to pay the price for his actions. Image
Read 4 tweets
4 Oct 20
Oceanic Cargo Electrification, In Four "Easy" Steps

(given that even @elonmusk's Roadrunner packs aren't sufficiently power dense or low cost for the role)

Step 1) Build floating wind farms...…
Or floating solar....…
... ditching all of the costs associated with the right half of this image.
Read 11 tweets
4 Oct 20
@ReflexFunds The media's failure to notice the invention of flight in 1903 was one of its most staggering failures in history. After the first flight, most reporters either ignored the news (either considering a short hop irrelevant, or outright fake). A couple published ridiculous, ...
@ReflexFunds sensationalized-to-the point-of-unbelievability accounts, which led the brothers to distrust the press, so they stopped sending press releases. Meanwhile they kept flying and improving outside Dayton. All the locals knew about this and regularly saw Wilbur flying overhead, but...
@ReflexFunds was essentially unknown outside the area - and claims about what was going on there were scoffed at by outsiders. It took a column written by a beekeeping supplier in "Gleanings in Bee Culture" in 1905 to get them attention. He had offered it to Scientific American, but they...
Read 5 tweets
23 Sep 20
Thread: Looking At Tesla's New Raw Materials

While most media coverage seems focused on Plaid, this was a battery event, and among the flood of fundamental rethinks about the way batteries are made are the changes in raw materials.
Anodes: traditionally these are milled graphite (natural or synthetic) optionally alongside a *small* amount of silicon. Tesla appears to be using *no* graphite. All of those graphite resources people have been trying to secure? Worthless. It's metallurgical silicon instead.
I've discussed how much of a step-up silicon is previously - ~3600mAh/g vs 372mAh/g for graphite, and nearly as good as Li metal (3860mAh/g, albeit at a slightly higher voltage). Note that Tesla won't *actually* be in the ~3600 range, as the polymer encapsulant adds mass.
Read 24 tweets
22 Sep 20
23 minutes to the event - hope you have your charity Battery Day Bingo cards in!

I'll be calling out things as they come in replies to this post, but you don't have to wait for me; they just need *official* confirmation in the event.
Things that happen at the shareholder meeting count, so long as they're specifically battery related! "Delayed start" will be relative to when the livestream starts, vs. the nominal start time. Stock prices relative to the price at 1:30.

Have fun!
Well, that's "Delayed start to the event" checked off!
Read 28 tweets
22 Sep 20
1/7 Love this:…

The government is trying to throw out an Egyptian political refugee family, but they went into hiding. So the police asked for tips. As a result, people are flooding the tip line with fake tips, sending the police on a wild goose chase.
2/7 This person told them that he saw them every day at the swimming pool in Eskifjörður. Which is a tiny town that's a nine hour drive away from the capital.
3/7 This person offered them a tip... that Sweet Chili PopCorners are a delicious, healthy snack, and offers a long list of reasons why one should choose them.
Read 8 tweets
21 Sep 20
As a reminder, tomorrow is our charity Battery Day Bingo, so if you haven't posted a card yet, make sure you do so before 1:30 PST tomorrow! Jackpot is $300 for the charity of your choice.

Generate a card here:

Rules here:
(Right before the Battery Bay event, I'll post a new thread, and call off card entries as they happen. Any card entries related to the stock price will be relative to the price at 1:30 PM PST. Anything more than 5 minutes will be interpreted as "Delated start to the event" :) )
** Delayed
Read 4 tweets