Our pre-print on "The epidemiology of long COVID in US adults two years after the start of the US SARS-CoV-2 pandemic". 7.3% of the US adult population (~18.5 million) reported having long COVID by July. What does the epidemiology look like? bit.ly/CUNYlongcovid [thread] Persistence of symptoms: One-quarter (25.3% [18.2-32.4%]) of respondents with long COVID reported their day-to-day activities were impacted 'a lot' and 28.9% had SARS-CoV-2 infection >12 months ago.

1. In our new (not yet peer reviewed) pre-print on NYC's BA.2/BA.2.12.1 surge, in a population-representative sample, we estimated SARS-CoV-2 prevalence to be 22.1% during April 23-May 8 (about 1.8M adults). About 31 times the official case count. medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 2. We examined a lot of other key measures, like the prevalence among those who are most vulnerable to severe outcomes, hybrid protection (i.e., from vaccination and prior infection), and awareness/uptake of the antiviral Paxlovid(TM). Here are some more highlights:

In our new (not yet peer reviewed) pre-print, we estimated the period prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 to be 27.4% (95%CI: 22.8%-32.0%) among adults during the latter half of NYC's BA.1 omicron surge, corresponding to about 1.8M people (95%CI: 1.6-2.1 million). medrxiv.org/content/10.110… The 27.4% estimate includes: 1) 14.1% (95%CI 10.4%-17.8%) who were positive on a test with a provider; 2) 5.2% (95%CI 3.1%-7.3%) who were positive exclusively on at-home rapid tests; and 3) 8.1% (95%CI 5.4%-10.9%) who met the definition for possible SARS-CoV-2 infection.

In an op-Ed for Barron’s, I highlight the need for more use of evidence-based strategies to limit the impact of the omicron surge on the healthcare system and other sectors in society. Vaccines and boosters alone will not get us to the other side. 1/8 barrons.com/articles/cdc-g… Omicron may be so much more infectious in part because of a longer infectious period vs delta. With omicron, many people report they are still positive on rapid antigen tests out to day 8, 9, 10 after diagnosis. This is new, and at odds with recent CDC isolation guidance. 2/8

https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1477672925755027464

Daily cases from labs and testing providers have always massively undercounted the true number of cases. And they are subject to all sorts of secular trends in testing practices, like the increasing use of at home rapid tests. Going forward, maybe we can.. nytimes.com/2021/12/30/us/… complement routine case data with daily phone/web-based surveys of households to count people with a recent at home positive rapid test who didn’t get it confirmed by a testing provider. We can also ascertain the point prevalence of people with symptoms who didn’t test at all…

This is a huge development. With regard to the science, there is still a lot to be learned about why omicron may be much more transmissible than prior variants. It could be that there is a longer infectious period with omicron. Masking will be critical for infected/exposed. 1/3

https://twitter.com/cdcdirector/status/1475608660139298821

Also, since so many people’s immune systems now recognize covid (because of prior vaccination or infection), the first symptoms many experience may be immune-response related, and occur prior to the infectious period. See great thread on this from @michaelmina_lab below.

https://twitter.com/epi_dude/status/1472267083832512517

I am speechless that it is coming to this, and that our politicians and governments would implement a policy like this without (and before) other needed drastic measures to reduce the potential for pandemic surges to burden the health care system…
gothamist.com/news/hochul-an… When our frontline health care workers are getting covid, either while at work, on the way to and from work, or in their own communities and households, we have failed them and society.

In the @nytimes article below, I said I didn't think it was a good idea to hold a New Year's celebration in NYC's Times Square 8 days from now. Reasonable people have disagreed. I thought I should explain why it might be a bad idea (1/10) nyti.ms/3elrMnb NYC is once again the U.S. epicenter for a big surge. The omicron variant has reached the highest case levels ever documented here. It has not yet peaked. Should 15K distanced and vaccinated people with masks to gather in Times Square 8 days from today? (2/10)

Vaccine hesitancy/resistance is dynamic within individuals, as shown in this Sankey plot of repeated measures on vaccine hesitancy in our national CHASING COVID Cohort showing how the proportion hesitant/resistant decreased over time and how people moved between groups. (n~5K) Of 2,302 participants who initially responded as vaccine hesitant in September 2020, 1,110 (48.2%) reported that they would immediately get the vaccine when it comes available to them in December 2020. More details below and in our pre-print: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

1. The pre-print (not yet peer reviewed) of recent results from our national, community-based CHASING COVID Cohort study of SARS-CoV-2 is out (bit.ly/3arAvmB). We looked potential risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection and public health outcomes. Here are some highlights: 2. We observed 145 seroconversions during May 2020-January 2021 among 3,280 persons who were seronegative during May-August, for an incidence rate of 9.3 per 100 person years (95% CI 7.9-11.0).

Encouraging news about @pfizer's COVID vaccine; But our data show that COVID vaccine hesitancy has substantially increased during September to October. Most people in our national cohort (~60%) now say they plan to delay getting or never get the vaccine when it is available. Among 4,700 adults responding in both September and October, non-Hispanic Whites, college grads, and those who strongly disagreed that the "fed. government (White House) is prioritizing citizen safety” were more likely to become COVID vaccine hesitant or avoidant.

1/9. If 3,000 New Yorkers are diagnosed with Coronavirus this week, what percentage of them were likely infected because they had close contact with a known case -OR- dined out at a restaurant or bar -OR- began working on-site recently -OR- 2/9. -OR- recently returned from Florida -OR- is an essential worker whose employer is not providing them with adequate PPE -OR- is a retail or service employee whose employer is not serious about protecting their employee's health? We need to know sooner rather than later.

I could be wrong, but I worry that the decision late yesterday (bit.ly/38g8rhS) to move forward with the #croi2020 conference in Boston may not have been the right one from a public health and pandemics management standpoint, given 1. Thousands of people will be coming together from all around the world for several days together at the Hynes Convention Center in Boston and staying at the same hotels at and around the convention center.Some attendees will be coming from areas where community transmission may