IEA report on Critical Minerals is out.

Good summary of the battery metals market - recommend to read. A bit too positive on supply side in my opinion.

Some of the most impactful figures below 🧵 Clean energies are already taking large share of battery metals supply. Lithium is definitely in the lead.

1/12
🧵90% of junior explorers lack a clear Exploration Strategy.

What is it?
Why do you need one?
And what are some examples? 2/12
Let's start with what a strategy is in the business terms.

1/x Geophysics is a powerful tool in mineral exploration, but many investors and geologists struggle to interpret its results.

🧵Here's a simplified explanation of how it works: 2/x Geophysics is the only tool that allows us to see below the surface of the Earth. With seismic and tomography methods, we can peer tens to hundreds of kilometers deep.

Check out the example of tomography imaging below 😲.

🧵Compilation of 20+ viral #mining #exploration posts.

Please retweet to help other investors learn and make the industry better 💪 Which regions generate most discoveries?

https://twitter.com/equivestinvest/status/1573733853067354117?s=20&t=2bzVdKhy-EXfyRzOEuiV7g

Over the last years, we have actively speculated in #exploration sector.

Our approach has changed over time.
One of our strategies is to participate early on in discoveries.

🧵👇Tips on how to do it below. Step #1: Stay up to date with exploration results announcements EVERY day.

For us #ASX and #TSX takes 10-20 min per day.
Success here comes down to:
• Know what you look for e.g. 20m @ 3% Cu
• Do not get distracted by noise
• You get faster over time
• Automate 😍

1/6 Most of the new #discovery announcements and good first holes ends up as a minor discovery.

How to spot significant discoveries as an investor? 2/6 Three steps to follow🪜:

1) Study significant discoveries
2) Study the failed discoveries
2) Learn the essentials of geology

Let's dig in.

🧵The #nickel #exploration success rates by #ASX companies are better in 2022 than the commonly cited 1/1000.

We counted 53 exploration campaigns that focused on new exploration targets. No appraisal, resource drilling.

Of these, 70% were maiden exploration. 2/5
30% of the companies drilled historical discoveries/mines. Not suprisingly these yielded no significant results.

Maiden exploration: 15 found no mineralisation, 13 only occurence, but we also had 1 discovery. Yet to be confirmed as significant.

What can we learn from $HUR $PANR $RECO. Geologists musings and personal opinions.

Best read with a glass of new years eve drink of your choice.
#oil #exploration
🧵👇 2/24 CHAPTER 1: "Story of geologists greed for discovery."

I first heard about $HUR fractured basement prospect as a student at Aberdeen Univ. I went to an evening lecture where geologist, Rob Trice HUR CEO was laughed by industry for his idea of oil in the basement rocks.

🧵28 significant #discovery announcements on #ASX this year so far.

Will Santa bring us more discoveries this year?

How many will turn significant over time? 2/5 If you wondering, we had no "significant discovery" announencements since the beginning of October.

Over the past years, I have read 100s of exploration news releases (NRs).

How to read them efficiently?

Breaking down my technique 🧵👇 Tip #1: Headline - important or not?

I will only read NR if:

• New discovery confirmed
• Significant assay
• New resource or bid
• Company on my watchlist

This simple techniques allows you to only focus on most important news and filter the noise.

1/x Commonly asked question. What is a significant #mining #discovery? 🧵

In our book it is upper Tier 2, Tier 1 discovery.

Okay, how do these tiers actually work? 2/x
Tier 1 deposits have NPV greater than 1 Bln USD. Typical discount rate used is 8% i.e. NPV8

They are rare to find! See the graph below from BHP showing frequency distribution of copper discoveries between 1985-2003.

🧵#Uranium deposits in the #Athabasca basin have some of the smallest lateral foot print from all commodities. This is due to a high grade nature.

UEX has some brilliant visuals of Shea Creek deposits that we can learn from. 2/x Kianna and Anne deposits of "Shea Creek discovery" are the most interesting. These are 250-500 m long and c. 40-100 m wide. The high grade part is even smaller!

Kianna has 34 mln lbs @ 1.5% U3O8
Anne 24 mln lbs @ 2% U3O8

1/x🧵
Most of remaining global #copper "yet to find" resources are estimated to be in sedimentary copper deposits.

Major sedimentary copper deposits occur on 170km lithosphere thickness boundary🌎👀

Nature likes order 📏

Why does it happen?

How can you use it as an investor? 2/x
Below paper summarised for non geos 👇

I read it so you do not have to.

1/x Looks like everyone is starting to catch up on nickel laterite HPAL Indonesian projects impact on #nickel market.

Detailed thread below - been flagging since Q1.

Bye, bye 👋 low grade nickel sulphides. If you hold one of those I would seriously rethink.

https://twitter.com/equivestinvest/status/1550503482767118337

2/x Does it mean nickel sulphide discoveries are worthless? 🤔

No! Large, tonnage and high grade nickel sulphides projects have superior economics and will produce profits at lower nickel prices.

They are also rare to discover and are acquired quickly at 1bln+ usd valuations.

A lot of investors that is starting in #exploration stocks asks: "What is the bare minimum that I need to know about #geology to understand #mining exploration?"

"Faults", "folds" and "fractures" are must to know!

Why? 🧐🧵 1⃣ They form important trapping sites for mineralised fluids and also hydrocarbons.

1/x
Out of 111 significant/major #discovery announcements on #ASX only 12% delivered returns greater than 200% after holding for 12 months.

Key learnings for #portfolio below ⬇️ 2/x
1. You need a good strategy for separating winners 🏅 from losers 💰.

2. You need to know what winners look like at an early stage. Know what size, grade, geology etc. you are looking for.

If you need help with this I run the course for non geologists.

1/x What makes quality #mining deposit❓

Summary of Mines vs Mineralisation research paper.

Four key elements that need to work together:
1. Social Licence
2. Geological Factors
3. Financial engineering
4. Operating factors

Geology underpins linkages between the elements. 2/x For mineral deposit to be economic it must able to meet challenges related to high energy costs or even social license to operate.

i.e. Significant size and grade in a stable geographic location are important.

1/x
"What is one of the errors investors make in the mining space?"

Focusing too much on individual holes vs understanding the size of opportunity 📐.

So is 20 m @ 2% Ni good result? Let's see! 🤔 2/x
Below are two possible scenarios of what 20m at 2% nickel can look like in terms of ore body dimensions.

We can already see that 2nd case - a 300m long body parallel to the surface should be more attractive due to larger tonnage + open pit.

Let's look at the map view!🗺️

1/x If you are investing in #nickel projects pay attention to sulphide vs laterite.

20 m @ 1% Ni

✅ good intercept for sulphide deposit
🔴 poor intercept for laterite 2/x I am surprised how poorly companies label their projects as laterite.. Run search in NR for "laterite" 🔎

1/x
Commodity cycle start or end?

Note: I am not commodity analyst, but exploration geo at the bottom of the commodity chain for metals/hydrocarbons.

Sharing some stats in the 🧵
#mintwit #commodity #batterymetals #mining 2/x
Reading macro analysts, following arguments emerge.

Current commodity run is:
- supply chain related only
- speculation fueled
- long term secular shortage in commodities
- caused by geopolitics, sanctions etc.
- going to end soon
- going to last a decade

1/x Would you support more onshore conventional #gas drilling in #Europe to replace Russian gas dependence?

Please vote as I want to share with European Commission. #EnergySecurity 2/x European onshore exploration was primarily focused on oil. From 60-70s focus shifted to the North Sea, especially for gas.

Below map of onshore oil & gas fields and pipelines in Europe's Southern Permian Basin. There are several other producing basins in Europe.