The President just proposed a $2,000 tariff “dividend” for each person, excluding high-income earners.

If the cutoff is $100,000, 150M adults would qualify, for a cost near $300 billion. If kids qualify, that grows.

Only problem, new tariffs have raised $120 billion so far. The math gets worse accounting for the full budgetary impact of tariffs: a dollar of tariff revenue offsets about 24 cents of income and payroll tax revenue.

Adjusting for that, tariffs have raised $90 billion of net revenues compared to Trump’s proposed $300 billion rebate.

There are at least five falsehoods in the first paragraph of the Trump administration’s brief to the Court. 🧵
1. Trade deficits are not inherently harmful. They reflect capital inflows and saving-investment balances, not “country-killing” weakness.

taxfoundation.org/blog/trade-def…

The Fed’s Beige Book (Oct 2025) is full of real-world stories about tariffs—businesses large and small describing higher costs, price hikes, and uncertainty.
Here’s a district-by-district look 👇 Boston (1st District)

Smaller manufacturers passed through a larger share of tariff-induced cost increases to customers.

One [firm] shed workers to offset tariff-related cost increases.

Construction costs continued to face upward pressure from tariffs and labor shortages.

The White House claims tariffs work. Let’s look at each study they cite to see if they’re correct. 1 and 2. Protection protects, but that says little about the economy-wide effect.

Study 1 is likely from a tariff advocacy group that looks only at protected sectors, not downstream sectors.

Study 2, a USITC report, likewise excludes downstream costs for 301s, and includes a warning about interpretation because of that exclusion.

The USITC does look at downstream costs for 232s. Tariffs boosted the value of steel and aluminum production, but by raising input costs, led to an even larger reduction in manufacturing output in sectors that rely on steel and aluminum.

25% tariffs on all Canadian and Mexican imports plus 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports would raise taxes by $111 billion in 2025 and shrink US output by 0.4% before retaliation.

Several industries would experience severe disruption, including autos, oil & gas, and agriculture. Keep up to date with President Trump’s tariff threats and actions with @TaxFoundation’s tariff tracker. taxfoundation.org/research/all/f…

We estimate a 25% tariff on all goods imports from Canada and Mexico plus a 10% tariff on all goods imports from China would raise $1.2 trillion over 10 years.

We make 4 main adjustments to arrive at our 10-year score of $1.2 trillion. 🧵 First, imports would not stay at their baseline level when facing a higher import tax burden. We use an import elasticity of -0.997 to estimate how imports would shrink.

Calling the latest round of tariffs “strategic” does not change the underlying reality: these policies are just another form of protectionism, and therefore, subject to all the same economic problems. taxfoundation.org/blog/biden-tar…
🧵Some of the reasons discussed for maintaining all Trump’s 301 tariffs and imposing additional tariffs include national security concerns over a subset of the goods in question and wanting to offset Chinese subsidies.

We have a new @TaxFoundation report out today detailing how a permanent overhaul of the income tax system could reduce economic, administrative, and compliance costs and lead to improvements in the well-being of families and children. Improvements in the long-run standard of living largely depend on peoples’ willingness to work and ability to invest in capital. And while all tax systems contain features that affect such decisions, income taxes tend to impose steeper economic costs than consumption taxes.

Happy Tax Day! Here are some stats on taxes in the United States. 🧵 IRS data on individual income taxes shows the federal income tax system is progressive, as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates.

🧵Biden’s budget contains $4.7 trillion in tax increases on businesses and high-net-worth individuals and would result in top tax rates that are out of step with international averages. New with @GS_Watson and @alex_durante_

taxfoundation.org/biden-budget-t… Corporate taxes ⬆️ $2.9 trillion

Individual and pass-through business taxes ⬆️ $1.8 trillion

President Biden's budget will contain two changes to Medicare taxes.

1) Increase Medicare tax rates from 3.8% to 5% on income above $400,000
2) Expand the tax base of the NIIT to apply to active pass-through business income above $400,000

whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/… Currently, earnings and investment income (like cap gains, dividends, passive business income) above $200K face a 3.8% tax.

The tax on earnings is made up of a 2.9% Health Insurance (HI) tax split between employers and employees plus the 0.9% Additional Medicare Tax above $200K

I'll be tuning in and live tweeting today's Senate Finance Committee hearing titled "Made in America: Effect of the U.S. Tax Code on Domestic Manufacturing" starting at 10am 👇

finance.senate.gov/hearings/made-… Witnesses:

George S. Davis
EVP CFO Intel Corporation

Jonathan Jennings
VP Ford Motor Company

Jay Timmons
President & CEO National Association of Manufacturers

Michelle Hanlon Ph.D.
Howard W. Johnson Professor MIT

Donnie Blatt District Director United Steelworkers

Goods imports from Mexico totaled $346.5 billion in 2018 (ustr.gov/COUNTRIES-REGI…)

A 5% tariff on that flow of goods amounts to a $17 billion tax increase. In 2018, we imported $93 billion of vehicles, $64 billion of electrical machinery, $63 billion of machinery, $16 billion of mineral fuels, and $15 billion of optical and medical instruments from Mexico.