Middle East Expert | Jihadist groups. Bylines @AFP @AJArabic @AlQudsAlarabi, @The_NewArab, @Syriawise, @Arabnews.
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Before going into the political analysis of the scene in #Beirut and #Jerusalem, I will start with the latest updates on the field reality on both sides of the border: 
In a series of tweets published by the account of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei on the X platform, it was clearly indicated that the Iranian response to Israel is coming and will be strong, and the threat was also directed at the American side. In an eye-catching post, Khamenei recalled the attack by Khomeini’s followers on the American embassy in #Tehran in November 1979, which may carry implicit messages directed towards America that must be taken into consideration.
On the ground, it can be said that the #IDF began a new advance in southern #Lebanon at dawn today by penetrating towards the strategic town of Al-Khiyam, which is located about 6 km from the Israeli border. This movement comes after the IDF took complete control of all the Lebanese border villages, with the increase in air strikes in the governorates of Bekaa, Hermel, Nabatieh and the city of Tyre. The border area between #Syria and Lebanon also witnessed broader strikes, some of which targeted crossings and some of which targeted military points of the #Hezbollah militia inside Syrian territory in the southern #Homs countryside and Qalamoun. 
#Gaza file
There is no doubt that this conflict is complex and has regional and international ramifications, but it can be said that there are four active players in it, that need to be studied individually in terms of their vision of this war, whether diplomatically or militarily. These are: #Israel - #Hezbollah - #Iran - #USA. 
First, it is necessary to clarify the military deployment of #Hezbollah within the Syrian geography, as the border area with Lebanon constitutes the most important point of concentration of the militia within the Syrian geography, from the western and southern countryside of Homs, to Qalamoun, reaching the western countryside of #Damascus, with mobile concentration points in the Quneitra Governorate on the border with #Israel. Hezbollah also has a military advisory presence in eastern #Syria, with combat points in the Aleppo Governorate. 
First of all, it must be emphasized that Sinwar was not just the head of the #Hamas political bureau in #Gaza and outside it, that can be replaced without changing the militia’s policy and plans, as was the case after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. However, we are dealing with a figure with great influence and weight in the political and military leadership, and his word within the militia has been considered as of the highest gravity in recent years. Therefore, in my opinion, Hamas will be forced to make changes in its policy, whether in the file of negotiations, war, or hostages. 
In an interview with Al Jazeera, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati confirmed that Lebanon is ready to implement #UN Resolution 1701 as a basis for restoring calm on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border. He indicated that the Lebanese army has the ability to deploy in southern #Lebanon. This positive statement is still unrealistic considering the fact that the Lebanese government is unable to impose any of its decisions on the #Hezbollah militia, and what happened on May 7, 2008 is a sufficient example of the weakness of the Lebanese state and its helplessness in confronting the militia. 
While #Hezbollah militia is trying to reorganize its command and control, which has been severely damaged in recent weeks, it seems that in #Tehran there are new arrangements being worked on to draw up the strategy that Hezbollah must adopt to survive from Israeli military pressure with the least damage and without being politically liquidated. 
At the outset, it must be emphasized that the #Biden administration has always stressed its rejection of escalation in the Middle East. Since the first day after the October 7 attack, American officials have worked intensively to prevent war in #Gaza and confirmed their support for a hostage exchange deal at the price of responding to some of Hamas’s demands. The American justification at the time was that the war against #Hamas could lead to a regional war in which Iran and its militias in the region would participate, and that ground battles in Gaza would be very costly militarily and humanly. 
Α security source confirmed to me that last Thursday evening, special forces from the |#IDF carried out a special operation against a military facility belonging to the #IRGC, six kilometers southwest of the Syrian city of Masyaf.
The speech carried many messages, the most important of which was #Nasrallah’s emphasis on continuing to support #Gaza until there is a ceasefire there, despite internal and international pressure led by the Americans and the French. 
Although one of the terms of this truce is that it will last for four days, during these four days both #Qatar and the #US will work to intensify negotiations between the two sides of the war to extend this truce in exchange for the release of more hostages.