Middle East Expert | Jihadist groups. Bylines @AFP @AJArabic @AlQudsAlarabi, @The_NewArab, @Syriawise, @Arabnews.
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First, I will present to you the latest field developments of the Israeli military operation that was launched on Syrian territory: 
On the ground: 
The Syrian regime is no longer as militarily and security-wise as it was in 2011, and its allies in #Iran are no longer as strong and as powerful as they were in 2013 when they began their military intervention in #Syria. Similarly, #Hezbollah is no longer as it was in 2012 when it penetrated #Damascus and the southern countryside of #Homs and #Russia today is not Russia of 2015. On the other hand, the armed Syrian opposition today is no more numerous than it was in the first years of the revolution, and it does not have the allies and friends it had before. The Sunni countries in the region abandoned them, and #Europe forgot about #Assad's crimes and recently knocked on his door in preparation for restoring diplomatic relations. With Trump coming to the White House, it has become clear that the withdrawal of #US forces from eastern Syria is a matter of time. So, what happened? In my opinion, beyond politics and military, freedom triumphs again over dictatorship, no matter how solid and cohesive this dictatorship seems. 
This #Hezbollah militia missile attack on northern Israel was not a surprise to me personally, just as I was not surprised by the Israeli strikes that targeted the militia’s violating moves in #Lebanon. It was naive for anyone in Netanyahu’s government to expect that Hezbollah would abide by the terms of the agreement, the content of which would limit their influence over the Lebanese state and the region. From the point of view of the militia’s leadership and their masters in Tehran, their approval of this agreement is what is known as taqiyya, which is to show something other than what you mean. They wanted to stop the militia’s human and military depletion in the hope that they would do what they did after the 2006 war, and that Netanyahu’s government would not be prepared to engage in war again once it stopped.
Before going into the political analysis of the scene in #Beirut and #Jerusalem, I will start with the latest updates on the field reality on both sides of the border: 
In a series of tweets published by the account of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei on the X platform, it was clearly indicated that the Iranian response to Israel is coming and will be strong, and the threat was also directed at the American side. In an eye-catching post, Khamenei recalled the attack by Khomeini’s followers on the American embassy in #Tehran in November 1979, which may carry implicit messages directed towards America that must be taken into consideration.
On the ground, it can be said that the #IDF began a new advance in southern #Lebanon at dawn today by penetrating towards the strategic town of Al-Khiyam, which is located about 6 km from the Israeli border. This movement comes after the IDF took complete control of all the Lebanese border villages, with the increase in air strikes in the governorates of Bekaa, Hermel, Nabatieh and the city of Tyre. The border area between #Syria and Lebanon also witnessed broader strikes, some of which targeted crossings and some of which targeted military points of the #Hezbollah militia inside Syrian territory in the southern #Homs countryside and Qalamoun. 
#Gaza file
There is no doubt that this conflict is complex and has regional and international ramifications, but it can be said that there are four active players in it, that need to be studied individually in terms of their vision of this war, whether diplomatically or militarily. These are: #Israel - #Hezbollah - #Iran - #USA. 
First, it is necessary to clarify the military deployment of #Hezbollah within the Syrian geography, as the border area with Lebanon constitutes the most important point of concentration of the militia within the Syrian geography, from the western and southern countryside of Homs, to Qalamoun, reaching the western countryside of #Damascus, with mobile concentration points in the Quneitra Governorate on the border with #Israel. Hezbollah also has a military advisory presence in eastern #Syria, with combat points in the Aleppo Governorate. 
First of all, it must be emphasized that Sinwar was not just the head of the #Hamas political bureau in #Gaza and outside it, that can be replaced without changing the militia’s policy and plans, as was the case after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. However, we are dealing with a figure with great influence and weight in the political and military leadership, and his word within the militia has been considered as of the highest gravity in recent years. Therefore, in my opinion, Hamas will be forced to make changes in its policy, whether in the file of negotiations, war, or hostages. 
In an interview with Al Jazeera, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati confirmed that Lebanon is ready to implement #UN Resolution 1701 as a basis for restoring calm on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border. He indicated that the Lebanese army has the ability to deploy in southern #Lebanon. This positive statement is still unrealistic considering the fact that the Lebanese government is unable to impose any of its decisions on the #Hezbollah militia, and what happened on May 7, 2008 is a sufficient example of the weakness of the Lebanese state and its helplessness in confronting the militia. 
While #Hezbollah militia is trying to reorganize its command and control, which has been severely damaged in recent weeks, it seems that in #Tehran there are new arrangements being worked on to draw up the strategy that Hezbollah must adopt to survive from Israeli military pressure with the least damage and without being politically liquidated. 
At the outset, it must be emphasized that the #Biden administration has always stressed its rejection of escalation in the Middle East. Since the first day after the October 7 attack, American officials have worked intensively to prevent war in #Gaza and confirmed their support for a hostage exchange deal at the price of responding to some of Hamas’s demands. The American justification at the time was that the war against #Hamas could lead to a regional war in which Iran and its militias in the region would participate, and that ground battles in Gaza would be very costly militarily and humanly. 
Α security source confirmed to me that last Thursday evening, special forces from the |#IDF carried out a special operation against a military facility belonging to the #IRGC, six kilometers southwest of the Syrian city of Masyaf.
