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Evan Tindell Profile picture
Evan Tindell
@evantindell
Bireme Capital CIO / MIT '06 / I used to play poker https://t.co/nkVEbj4lri https://t.co/scqco3aC0h
Sep 25 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
As an investor in $BTI, we think nicotine is not so bad when removed from its cancer inducing wrappers.

But there's research showing nicotine itself helps cause cancer.

This would be bad, because the future of $BTI rests on Vuse and Velo's ability to improve health outcomes.

And those products don't have smoke, but certainly contain nicotine.

1/xImage There has been an interesting test case regarding smokeless tobacco use: Sweden

Traditional smoking has dropped precipitously in the country over the last 20 years, from 16% of adults to just 6%.

But rates of "Snus" use has grown, and currently around 20% of adults use some form or oral tobacco.Image
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Apr 26, 2022 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
Let's talk again about $NFLX amortization.

I see a lot of ppl worrying about it, but v few actually going deep on it (at least on here).

Here's an example of the questioning: Then there are many like this, dunking on $NFLX's accounting after the recent declines:



First, props to anyone who was short. I do a good amount of shorting and can recognize a good call!

But I don't think amortization accounting is the problem here.
Apr 14, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I recently did an “update” to my sumzero post partially related to this. I’m not too concerned and here’s why. First off, the key thing to understand is that nearly 100% of the gap between FCF and net income is due to Netflix- produced content.

For this content, $NFLX spends all the cash up front and amortizes over a period of years.
Apr 2, 2019 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
Many interesting slides in the JPM Q2 guide to the markets. Here are a few that caught my eye.
1) Debt to EBITDA by size and style box... large caps have the least debt
2) Valuations by sector... who is paying 17x for energy and 19x for utilities names? Not me... 3) Recessions and bear markets... typically have gone together
4) Household net assets up to 120 Trillion, and debt service rates down a bunch from 2007
5) Population growth: consensus says the US won't have any going forward
6) Yield curve: looks a lot different than 6 years ago