How many negative tests are needed to obtain a "low" probability of a diagnosis? Look at the rudimentary figure and follow a small thread. 1/
Assumptions here include: 1. Sensitivity is 0.8, specificity is 0.99 2. Test performance does not change over time (this is not true in practice) 3. No ongoing therapy affects the test
Jan 25, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
.@f2harrell has important concerns on the conclusion of FLASH trial.
We tried to discuss some of these points in the editorial, but for those wondering we can do some simple Bayesian updating to better understand the results. Small thread. 1/
We can center a weak prior based on the expected baseline event rate for primary outcome and then update beta using Empirical Bayes. It looks something like this: 2/
Dec 18, 2019 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
So this great study was published and, as always, everyone is confused about interpreting non-inferior design.
Can a simple Bayesian approach help? @ADAlthousePhD, @Michael_Harhay, @otavio_ranzani, @reverendofdoubt, others pls
correct me if I am wrong!
jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
As with any Bayesian analysis, we should have a prior for the success rate of first attempt intubation. I am no expert on this, but in Brazil is it probably around 70%, but values of 60-80% are possible.
