Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Just Me Profile picture
Just Me
@failure1991
Just Me - and believer in the 'Good Old Cause'
4 subscribers
Apr 3 • 25 tweets • 7 min read
Hi Everyone,

Time for a thread with a little bit of economics, economic history and speculation! This will be a bit of a dense one of undetermined length but I know RWA is asking a question many, many others are asking /1 So first what are tariffs. Tariffs, or customs duties, are an ad valorum nominal or percentage charge based on the import or export value of a product at the time it enters or leaves a point of entry into a country: usually a land border or port /2 Image
Mar 8 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
There are three types of people who disgust me right now over the events in Syria and all three shall be named in subsequent posts - and some of them overlap /1 1) Those who wailed for Ukraine, wailed at exaggerated or even fabricated Russian war crimes and now like Charles Lister cheer a bunch of jihadist terrorists going around and just shooting any civilians they see /2
Aug 17, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
Hi everyone,

Time to be proven wrong at a future date by making some predictions and analysis on the Battle of Kursk (2024) /1
(Pictured - the battle space) Image On 6 August the Ukrainians launched an attack into Kursk Oblast. It is widely taken and accepted in Western MSM - helped by some Russian Telegram channels who peddle negativity for subscriptions and some who hate the Russian government - that this was a surprise /2
Aug 1, 2024 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
So for those who might find this point here I make 'tiresome' - 1) too bad and 2) much more importantly I have a historical counterpoint that shows how this was a complete own goal on the Romanovs' part - Austria-Hungary /1 Austria-Hungary was a power in decline. It was, as some have pointed out, the last iteration of the Holy Roman Empire. But perversely it was a power in decline even as it was economically one of the fastest growing states in Europe /2 Image
Jul 31, 2024 • 22 tweets • 6 min read
Hi everyone,

Now time for the good things about Nicholas - and not 'he was a good father' nice for his personal life not too relevant in his effectiveness as a ruler and indeed his wonderful side as a father did not show up in his rulership often, sadly /1 First - Nicholas was an anti-semite but not a hard, inveterate one like his father. Silently, and more through quiet administrative action, the actual situation of Jews generally improved over where it had been under his father /2
Jul 17, 2024 • 27 tweets • 8 min read
Hi everyone,

Picking up where we left off - the bad of Nicholas II. His reign started badly. At his coronation free 'goodies' were passed out to the common people - mostly food. Indicative of the poverty of the time - and a rush ensued /1
Image At least 1,300 people were killed by being trampled and crushed - Nicholas was at best reserved or at worst insouciant in his private reactions. Disastrously though he listened to his uncle, Grand Duke Sergei and did not cancel a gala with the French Ambassador /2 Image
Jul 12, 2024 • 21 tweets • 5 min read
So time for another thread this time on something @RWApodcast said, specifically on why the top Russian political elite went for Minsk II and their long term disastrous policy in Ukraine before 2022 - I think they miss some things /1 Image Consider who the post-Soviet elite are. By and large they are either from or children of the old Soviet nomenklatura. This does NOT mean they are necessarily pro-Soviet or Socialist in their sympathies. So we first need to consider the motivations of the nomenklatura /2
Jul 5, 2024 • 24 tweets • 7 min read
To not keep everyone in suspense or suppose I had hit 'post' by accident and no follow up let me first start with the situation Nicholas II faced and his context. Men like him have the power to make their own destiny but their context is not one they own /1 Hanging over Russia was defeat in the Crimean War. Russia had almost no rail lines, barely existent industry, and its soldiers had muskets not rifles. Russia was crushed by the two mightiest industrial and military powers of the day - France and the UK /2 Image
Jun 18, 2024 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
So time for something a little different. Russian losses /1 The Twitter algorithm is passing me things I normally don't read much and I came across "Killed in Ukraine." It appears to be 1:1 to Mediazona where they trawl everything they possibly can in Russian social media to look for KIA officers. /2x.com/KilledInUkraine
Jun 11, 2024 • 21 tweets • 5 min read
So I thought I should do a bit of a controversial thread following up on this but not entirely related: namely how the Arab-Israeli wars and two Gulf Wars have warped our sense of what is militarily normal and possible /1 This is going to hurt a lot of sensibilities but the simple fact is that in the latter half of the 20th Century Arab militaries were probably the most incompetent on the planet. They punched well below their weight as well covered in numerous histories /2 Image
Feb 28, 2024 • 20 tweets • 5 min read
Hi everyone,

There are a lot of people out there, including informed people who follow the war, who can't seem to believe that UKR KIA exceed 100k KIA, at most 150k KIA. They also tend to believe the loss ratio of UKR:RU must be less than 2:1. Here's why I think they're wrong /1 For a start there are the visual data points like all the videos of growing cemeteries in Ukraine - and the drastic expansion thereof confirmed in the UKR press /2
budport.com.ua/news/27275-kab…
Dec 8, 2023 • 25 tweets • 7 min read
Ooooh boy. This going to be a whopper and unpopular thread but people have been asking me to explain myself on my unpopular stance on Myanmar and why I support the Tatmadaw (I have many unpopular stances - and I am also just some guy, just me and nothing more). So here goes /1 Image To radically oversimplify Myanmar is a mostly jungle, resource rich, multi-ethnic and multi-religious country in Southeast Asia full of beautiful vistas but like all places to do with the jungle it has traditionally been underpopulated due to tropical diseases /2 Image
Nov 1, 2023 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
Quick thread on the difficulties and travails of Tzahal (AKA the IDF) /1 The terrorist outrage by Hamas on 7 October was rightly shocking and deeply angered Israeli society. People can talk about oppression and intervention or what not but if you go through a Charlie Hebdo, or Bataclan, or a 7/7 you don't care very much about that /2
Oct 19, 2023 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
Concluding thought for the day: Anti-semitism is about to burst out in the open and it won't be put back in the bottle and no one will be inclined to. Why? /1 Well, there have been warning signs for a while. Anti-semitism is deeply ingrained in world society. Jews are a tiny number of people but widely dispersed and also ostensibly at the top of power structures per what many conspiracies push (as a drug supplier pushes something) /2
Jun 17, 2023 • 18 tweets • 5 min read
Hi everyone,

Apparently it is time for a JM rant because ... why not? 🤷‍♂️

Things are just getting ridiculous at this point with how the Western MSM is describing the UKR counteroffensive (1) Image Last time I was set off by Rob Lee insouciantly commenting about how the offensive was demonstrating just how much better western equipment was at crew and passenger survivability. This is at best insouciant (2)
Jun 13, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
I am going to break my code of usually showing nothing with dead people in it from combat footage from the UKR war. It is - or should be - upsetting or sobering but this tweet by Rob Lee got me very angry (1) Image Lee suggests, through a bad jump cut video, that western gear guarantees the survivability of personnel a lot better than Soviet or Russian gear. I have seen too much from this war to believe that is true, having seen filmed aftermaths from inside burned out western vehicles (2)
Mar 23, 2023 • 23 tweets • 5 min read
Hi Everyone,

This first appeared on the Donbass Devushka channel, written by yours truly, please check it out. I call it Zaporozhye Dooming

(1) Image When reading this do not think that Russian Generals or the General Staff are 'traitors and fools' or 'slow.' As Alcibiades said in his post on 'Kharkov syndrome', Russian Generals have consistently out fought and out-generaled their Ukrainian opponents and NATO advisors.
(2)
Feb 14, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Hi Everyone,

In recent weeks there have been extravagant claims about Russians losses in and around the town of Ugledar south of Donetsk. Covered by the usual suspects such as Paul Massaro:

(1) At the tip of the Russian spear in this assault is the 155th Naval Infantry brigade. The 155th bde made some initially good progress, but including apparently even probing into Ugledar itself but then was pushed back from 26 January by determined UKR counterattacks (2).
Jan 12, 2023 • 22 tweets • 5 min read
Hi Everyone,

I am going to be writing today about the newly published ethnic/national identity data from Russia's 2021 Census. We will be looking at what it says and what I think it says about national identity and future developments in Russia in this direction (1) Image First, the population grew from 142,849,468 in 2010 to 147,189,123 in 2021. Much of this was driven both by the reincorporation of Crimea and immigration. Only in 2013, 2014 and 2015 did Russia experience positive population growth. (2)
Nov 11, 2022 • 26 tweets • 7 min read
Hi Everyone,

I wanted to do a thread about the Battle of Pavlovka both expanding on and continuing from my previous thread on the subject. The link is here :


(1) So first off an admission. I got the date the attack started wrong. It started on 29 October. Now onto the battle. Pavlovka is located southwest of Donetsk to the south of a town called Ugledar. To take Ugledar you need to take Pavlovka. (2)
Nov 10, 2022 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
Hi Everyone,

This is not a fun one as I respect Tom Fowdy and will continue to follow him, but here he is wrong. Why? (1) For a start UKR does not advance carefully. In April UKR was attacking towards Kherson. It failed horribly. There are videos - which I cannot share here - of the results of the UKR attack in Alexandrovka - an entire company of dead in one village alone. (2)