some CPI thoughts for December print this week:

- Oil was up 10% during the month of december and will add headline basis points to this months print and will not act as a disinflationary tailwind as it has for many months to headline core goods which have been the largest driver of the disinflation story over the past couple years have bottomed and are beginning to move higher.

Let me tell you a story about the man with 750k uninsured deposits at his bank

You have 1m in a bank - that means 750k is uninsured, 250k insured

ur in a good bank but u look and ur like: "damn, im only getting 1% bank yield at this bank and im exposing 750k to possible loss. i think my bank is fine but who knows. plus, i could take that 750k out and go to treasury direct and earn 5% in t bills instead of 1%, plus i would no longer have any sort of risk!"

Mmk fine time for a thread on my thoughts of SVB and this banking crisis as a whole and where the potential landmines lie and what matters. so i definitely put this in the category of "the fed will keeping hiking until something breaks" camp.

if it does properly break here this fits the bill of something that forces the fed to ease, the question being what does that easing look like

Analyzing the current Debt Ceiling debacle and its impact on liquidity over the next few months - a thread from my recent report at @ReflexivityRes Congress holds the power of setting a limit on the amount of National Debt that the government can have.

When the Debt hits the ceiling, Treasury shifts into using extraordinary measures to ensure that it can remain solvent since it can no longer issue new debt.

USD Central bank swap lines are the wrong tool for the ongoing global currency crises that are emerging and shows how the Fed is once again fighting the last war, not the emerging one.

A thread and thought experiment! First, what are swap lines?

When a foreign central bank draws on its swap line with the Fed, the foreign central bank sells a specified amount of its currency to the fed in exchange for USD. The Fed holds the foreign currency in an account at the foreign central bank.

We're about to experience a sovereign debt crisis caused by the Europe energy crisis, all a capstone on the 100 year fiat expirement.

Here's how I think the next 6-8 months go down: Putin strongarms Europe by shutting off Energy pipelines, causing a spike in prices.

This causes energy prices to skyrocket in Europe which is a major component of CPI - This causes inflation to explode higher

I see a lot of CT looking at the yield curve inversion and trying to figure out what's next.

Markets don't tank when we're inverted, it's the re-steepening of the curve as fed cuts while markets tank that does it.

A thread on possibilities below:

(2y-10y YC vs SPX below) Yield curve inversions normalize through two ways:

- 2y yield (defacto current fed positioning) comes lower due to the fed either pivoting or cutting rates

- 10y yield goes higher back above the 2y yield (long duration bonds get bid during recession and growth fears).