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Jun 14, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Ever wonderered what this "Treasury General Account" (TGA) is that everyone seems to be talking about?

Here's a simple explanation.

🧵 ↓ ↓ ↓ Image Picture the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) as the government's checking account.

Just like you use your checking account to deposit your income and pay bills, the government does the same with the TGA. 2/9
Jun 13, 2023 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Lots of talk about the Fed's "Reverse Repo Facility" (RRF) recently.

But what exactly is it?

Quick thread: The RRF matches a borrower in need of short-term funds (in this case the central bank) with lenders who have a bunch of cash on hand (banks, Money Market Funds, and other institutional holders of cash). 2/7
Mar 27, 2023 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
Does @MichaelKantro's #HOPE framework indicate that we're in a recession?

Short answer: YES.

And we believe the model points to NEW LOWS in the S&P 500 before the end of this cycle. Our prior analyses of the #HOPE framework showed that it was a powerful indicative model of leading, coincident, and lagging recessionary indicators.

2007-09 analysis:
1973-75 analysis: