i read the 20pg natgas bull thesis presented by matt smith and @colossusmag

like their angle on deliverability/infrastucture limits (not resource size) as the binding constraint .....refreshingly novel approach

but here are 9 cracks in their logic (in no particular order) 🧵

https://twitter.com/colossusmag/status/2079545730390209007

1. they assume their supply model is 'the maximum', capped at 132 bcfd

commodity markets (especially ng) have an incredible history of making "maximum" production forecasts look silly

every cycle someone says 'we've modeled every well' .....then technology changes