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Will cover $TSLAQ short @ $0
Twitter author Profile picture Dr Able Lawrence🦉MD DM Profile picture Machine Planet Profile picture 3 added to My Authors
3 Aug
1/ European🇪🇺 car sales has generally recovered from COVID. Let's take France🇫🇷, the largest market that's reported so far: up 3.9% YoY in July. It's around flat YoY in Europe.

2/ However, sales of PHEV's generally tripled, BEV's doubled YoY.

In Q2, bulls took victory laps about the lower-than-market decline of $TSLA. That was only compared to ICE, as $TSLAQ's BEV market share dropped steeply.

Let's see how it will look in Q3.
Read 2 tweets
1 Aug
1/ An awesome thread from @JonBryant421 on FCA's credit situation, that is almost all of Tesla's credit revenue. There is very little to add about Europe.

2/ Here are the #'s summarized. Note that w/o $140M deferred rev recognition in Q2, credit revenue would have been $288M in Q2. This $140M has been paid for as an advance or similar in 19Q1.
3/ FCA's commitment changes this year vs Tesla's revenues show a $7M difference. That could be rounding error, exchange rate mismatch, sales of US credits to someone else or China (or a mix). I've estimated $8M from China in Q1. Could be a coincidence.

Read 7 tweets
29 Jul
1/ @CathieDWood pushes the topic of Human RoboTaxis. Why? Because there are no RoboTaxis on the road and won't be any in the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, @ARKInvest continues to dump $TSLA while Cathie pumps on CNBC.

2/ In April 2019, Musk, among other things, has announced RoboTaxis, when #Tesla was at the brink of bankruptcy and urgently needed to raise capital.

It's now a fact that Tesla production never got close to 10k/wk in 2019 and, in fact, half a year later it's still not there.
3/ There obviously isn't "feature complete self-driving" either. Musk has been promising this since 2015. He knows full well the power of FSD: it's the Holy Grail of cars: most ppl don't like to drive and would be happy to hand the task over to a robot.…
Read 13 tweets
19 Jul
🚨🚨🚨 #Tesla European🇪🇺 market share already at record lows and falling 🚨🚨🚨

Q3 and Q4 are estimates, assuming flat Renault/PSA/Audi/Kia/Mini/Fiat/Jag, but an extra 30/100k in Q3/Q4 resp. via VW ID.3, Merc EQC ramp, new BMW iX3, add. Hyundai from CZ factory, Polestar 2. Probably very conservative.

Assuming Tesla to recover to 19/22k. Probably optimistic.
Q2 is a close estimate.

Thanks for @EconomicManBlog and @markbspiegel for the inspiration and setting the deadline :)
Read 3 tweets
12 Jul
1/ $TSLA YoY M3+MY "growth" in the US*:

19Q3 -34%
19Q4 -34%
20Q1 +20%**
20Q2 -32%**

20Q1: +8.5%***
20Q2: -34%****

2/ * US = (totals reported) - (all other regions summed up). 20Q2 has a margin of error of +-500 units due to missing
- Australia
- Hong Kong (May+Jun)
- MiUS China (Jun)
- South Korea (May, but <107)
3/ ** includes Model Y for 2020. Without that, figures would be worse. Base for Q1 is very low in the US due to 2019 Q1 demand pulled forward to 2018 Q4 because of FIT credit phaseout.
Read 6 tweets
7 Jul
If you think $TSLA is insanity, look at $NIO. Has a negative (!) 6-9% gross margin (on each car produced!), massively indebted, having sold ~3k cars in June for a record, yet "worth" more than Nissan or Peugeot-Citroen, or twice Renault.

In a perfectly normal 27% range today.

Up 150% in 2 weeks.
Who would have thought...
Read 5 tweets
11 Jun
1/ I've dug into Tesla's reg credit sales #'s, and found some surprising (to me) details about their FCA agreement.

In the thread, I've assumed that Tesla sells all its credits to FCA and FCA buys all from #Tesla.

Let's dig further.

2/ The Q1 surprise credit sales can have 3 reasons:

a) Tesla has recognized more sales in Europe
b) sold more ZEV/GHG in the US
c) they've started selling NEV credits in China
( d) sheer fraud)
3/ Let's start with Europe.

In Europe, there is no direct sales of credits. You need to sign a yearly pooling agreement (and you can obviously ask for $$ to do so). These agreements need to be filed with the EU, and they are public.
Read 24 tweets
7 Jun
1/ #Tesla has earned ~$.5B from green credits in the last 2 years and $354M already this year in Q1, yet couldn't turn a profit for 4 consecutive quarters. What does COVID-19 has to do with this?

2/ Europe is currently the 2nd largest market for BEV's, and with the ~20-50% growth seen in most country markets in 1-5/2020, it's growing rapidly despite the virus. It's tough to see clearly how China looks like, but it's probably flattish.
3/ Tesla earns most of its green credits via their FCA pooling agreement in Europe. FCA is merging with PSA, and, as of December 2019, they've planned to achieve CO2 compliance without the current pooling agreement with Tesla.
Read 15 tweets
4 Jun
1/ In Germany🇩🇪, and Germany only, you can only buy a single Model 3 version: the Model 3 2020. There are no SR+, LR and Perf versions.

Oh, wait, there are. These are all options to the base Model 3 2020. Sounds sus? It's Occam's #Tesla, bro.

2/ It's because the net price of the base model (w/o options) shall be below €40k to be eligible for the €6k subsidy, which is to be increased to €9k soon. €3k is to be covered by the OEM, another €3k (soon to be €6k, retroactively!) is covered by the state.
3/ That means that with this "Model 3 2020" in Germany, all Model 3's are eligible for the subsidy of €3k.
Read 10 tweets
1 Jun
It's 6/1. No ships have arrived this Q to 🇪🇺 so no new inventory. There are ~700 Model 3's and virtually an infinite # of SuX available to choose from, according to Lockdowns have mostly ended, not that it had stopped $TSLA from delivering.

Note that usually only a small fraction of inventory cars are shown on the website, so real inventory is most probably higher.

Don't blame it on the sunshine
Don't blame it on the moonlight
Don't blame it on good times
Blame it on the COVID!

Read 2 tweets
24 May
1/ 1st $TSLA ship this Q went to APAC instead of Europe, as everyone expected*.

The second ship? When is there going to be a second ship? Both candidates are far away from the port, doing nothing (h/t @TESLAcharts).

2/ * Shipments to Europe are the firsts because it takes longer to ship to Europe. This is the Musk way of managing Cash Flow: fill distant locations first, near ones the last, so EOQ cash will look good, helped by ABL.
3/ I have a theory that Musk will kitchen sink EU Q2, blame it on COVID and try to get away with it. As the markets stand, he might succeed.

Read 9 tweets
17 May
1/ Now that COVID-19 lockdowns have mostly ended or lightened up in 🇪🇺, let's see what the aftermath will be for our favorite California, Shanghai, Berlin, Texas and Mars carmaker.

2/ Will there be a V-shape rebound? An U? Or an L? We'll see. But we know that lots of ppl have lost their jobs, so the car market will take a while to recover. This will have at least 2 effects.
3/ First, 🇪🇺 demand for BEV's will go down (or not go up as much as w/o C19). That will leave most legacy OEM with battery (and other parts) purchase commitments, but less demand. Remember: BEV's have the highest % of purchased parts.
Read 9 tweets
12 May
1/ Why did Sasha Zahnd, European🇪🇺 sales head of $TSLA quit #Tesla, after less than half a year? His predecessor, Jan Oehmicke (telling name!) fared twice as better: he quit after a full year

Word is that both top managers had disagreements with Musk. What could that be?

2/ Of course, we don't know. But we can guess.

Tesla has sent 7 ships to Europe in Q1, after 8 in 19Q4. Despite all those cars available, #Tesla has only delivered less 2/3 of the cars in Q1 compared to Q4. If my math serves me right, 2/3 << 7/8.
3/ Why so few in Q1 if cars were available, and demand is still through the roof, justifying the sky-high market cap? Well, blame scapeCovid. It worked: the market gave Tesla a pass for Q1.
Read 10 tweets
1 Jan
1/ I know close to nothing about automotive software. But I know software in general, including other niche verticals. It's clear to anyone who ever worked with software that code complexity and bugs/functional errors/security holes are exponentially related.
2/ Bulls praise Tesla's single CPU approach vs the distributed systems of legacy auto. True, it gives the opportunity the develop new features much faster and cheaper.
3/ It also enables Tesla to OTA new features that are impossible for legacy to do with their distributed systems, especially that some come from contractors. Asterisk impossible and rephrase it to take an extremely long time and cost.
Read 11 tweets
28 Dec 19
1/ There have been lots of discussions around UK among $TSLA and $TSLAQ. Will the UK be the next Netherlands due to tax changes coming into effect on 4/6 in the UK?
2/ As most of you are well aware, the tax hike (affecting mostly the Model 3) in the Netherlands from 1/1/20 caused Tesla's Model 3 to become the best selling vehicle in NL, obviously the best selling BEV too, by far.
3/ In the UK, the direction is the opposite: they are decreasing the BiK rate by 4/6/20.

To my Americans: BiK applies to you if you have a company car that you use for private purposes (you do). You basically add % of the car price to your salary and pay PIT after it.
Read 19 tweets
3 Nov 19
1/ The only place (I'm aware of) is the Netherlands where car dealers have to register car prices along with all the other info with the local DMV (in this case, RDW). Why? Because one has to pay taxes based on this data.
2/ And taxes, man, taxes in 🇳🇱 are insane. If you drive a company car, you pay 22% per annum (!) of the gross price (net+21% VAT) plus change, unless it's an electric car, which is being taxed at 4% only for the first €50k (8% up to €45k from 2020, hence the unreal M3 push).
3/ For example, if you drive a €60k M3, you pay €50k*4%=€2k + €10k*22%=€2.2k for a total of €4.4k every year. For a €120k Model X, which is dirt cheap compared to previous prices, you pay €2k+€70k*22%=€15.4k for a total of €15.4k per annum.
Read 11 tweets
19 Aug 19
$TSLA weekly 🇪🇺 UPDATE

♣101 NO Aug M3 regs (5/19: 705), NL 356 (414), SP 28 (122)
♦Norway should pick up this wk as ships have arrived
♠SuX: NO 41 sold (vs 195 in 8/18) 30S11X, NL 26 (600) 10S16X, SP 22 (26) 9S13X
♥ASP's down to $47k/$88k 3/SuX

🃏Maybe 6 ships only to EU?
Ships have started to arrive to Norway, so I'm expecting deliveries to be picking up. Not much help in terms of ASP/GM though:
In Q1 there were 8 ships going to Europe with M3's on them. Had a significant amount of leftovers for Q2 (5 ships), with only ~3.5k for Q3. A bit early to tell as there are 2 more weeks to ship cars for Q3 delivery, but it seems that in Q3 there will be 6 ships only.
Read 5 tweets
15 Aug 19
Final European #Tesla registration data for July: M3 with 3,009 registrations (ex-UK) down 74% from June and 20% from April, SuX up 2% YoY due to price cuts and discounting.

European ASP's look quite bleak:

M3 down to $47k, SuX down to $87k and declining. Figures are list prices, don't account for any discounts. These include shipping costs, so net ~$2k less than shown to #Tesla.

To clarify: ASP data in USD is after FX and taxes (you can do the math to double check: 21% VAT, 10% tariffs, 1.11 USD to EUR)
Read 3 tweets
17 Jun 19
1/ 🇪🇺 $TSLA M3 registrations are doing much better than I expected. As many of you know, I've nailed Q1 #'s very accurately, but I had the invoice # method to use, which isn't available in Q2. Actually we can mostly rely on trackers and forums for Q2, which don't seem to be good.
2/ April and May came in quite bad, 3,759 and 2,859 respectively. #Tesla had much bigger inventory available in both months, and results were worse than my estimates. June runs much higher though.

3/ Trackers and forums seemed to be almost dead, so compared to that, June numbers are a surprise. But, we have 3 countries to follow daily: Norway, the second largest market after the US, the Netherlands, which used to be a strong 3rd and Spain, a tiny one.
Read 10 tweets
17 Apr 19
1/ 🇪🇺 isn't $TSLA 's savior.

Today marks the day when Audi's E-Tron outsold $TSLAQ's Model S+X combined in #Tesla's 2nd largest market, Norway, on a yearly level, while E-Tron has only been shipping since last month (946 vs 945). Jaguar's i-Pace stands at 1,111.
2/ Model S+X sales collapsed by half YoY in Europe in Q1 (maybe more if TMC's UK estimate is too high, as I think).
3/ Norway S+X sales stands at 53, so prob good for 100 in April. Compares to 716 in April 2018. The Netherlands: 4 (so maybe 10 in Apr?) vs 75. Spain looks better but that includes used imports. Based on these figures, we can expect a 70% freefall YoY for S+X in Europe in Apr.
Read 15 tweets
9 Apr 19
1/ If you order an M3 in Europe today, you get a May delivery date. As per @skabooshka $TSLA hasn't been building EU cars since early March. It's reasonable to assume that all EU cars made have been shipped to the EU by March with no EU cars left in Fremont.
2/ Since shipping to EU + delivering the cars takes 4 weeks at least, vessels to EU for May delivery should depart latest in the first days of May, but better in the end of April. We have ~3 weeks until then.
3/ This means that at a rate of 5k/wk of production, there is certainly less than 3x5k=15k orders from Europe, including new orders and any backlog from Q1 and earlier.
Read 5 tweets