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fly4dat Profile picture
fly4dat
@fly4dat
Will cover $TSLAQ short @ $0 fly4dat on Threads, Bluesky and Mastodon
4 subscribers
Aug 28, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1/ The shipping window has closed, no Chinese ship departing after today could arrive in Europe on time for Q3 deliveries. Let's sum up where we are. $TSLA Image 2/ It is likely that we are ending Q3 with 7 ships from Shanghai, carrying M3, MY RWD and all RHD MY (UK). 1 of them went to the UK, the rest to Continental Europe. This compares to 14 total in Q2, of which 5 went to the UK.
Aug 25, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
24h $TSLA summary:
- @TroyTeslike lowers his Q3 est to 451k, down 3.5% QoQ
- NHTSA is about to conclude its investigation into AP/FSD soon
- DOJ sues SpaceX for discrimination
- more US MY discounting
- used prices plummet
- VW has better powertrain
- Funding secured payouts
Feb 22, 2023 • 8 tweets • 7 min read
1/ $TSLA bulls are expecting a Model 2 announcement (not even an unveil) in March that will save Tesla.

Even if it doesn't get delayed by 4-5 years as CT, there is one thing that bulls don't understand: competition.

$TSLAQ 2/ Model 3 created a market of its own (sporty acceleration with cool UX cheaper than a MS). Model Y was a bit late but since others still can't meet demand, there was space for it outside the US, and in the US, it's still mostly uncontested.
Feb 21, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Terrible, and trending down (1-quarter trendline). A collapse of 11.3% from 3 months ago, despite ~30% combined price cuts since.

You'll see the same in Europe.

It's over. Biden can give Musk another $6B/yr, that won't save the co.

$TSLA $TSLAQ Bad, worse, Tesla

Feb 4, 2023 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
1. Musk has settled with the SEC in 2018 bc "banks would have cut off financing and Tesla would have died".

2. Musk hasn't lied by tweeting "Funding Secured", because he could raise any amount of money and had lots of his own, for example in SpaceX.

Some ppl have it both ways. 1. That's what he said after having settled with the SEC. "No admission of guilt, but if I hadn't settled, the consequences would have been deadly for Tesla. Banks would have cut off credit lines and Tesla would have died" (not word by word, anyone can look it up)
Feb 3, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
If the jurors in Musk's Funding Secured case could learn implied volatility from a lawyer in a few minutes and hence award damages to the Plaintiff, my faith in humanity will dramatically change. If only I could reply to Spiro's self-contradicting BS
Feb 1, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
VIX @ 18

JPow poured petrol on the fireworks
Jan 31, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
$TSLA 10-K is out, unusually early. @elonmusk dump incoming?

$TSLAQ

@elonmusk $11B in automotive inventory is ~300k completely assembled cars at COGS (I used $38k). That's a LOT of cars, parts, raw material, and maybe scrap put in inventory? Image
Jan 31, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
🚨🚨🚨BOOM: "100k new orders"

Tesla is dead outside the US.

$TSLA $TSLAQ I'm sure that @garyblack00 is busy preparing his tweet about the WoW growth.

Jan 31, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
@bgiromini I'm somewhat paranoid by profession, so I never believed her for a second. Reasons:

1. She was out within days saying that Musk has solved the problem which whole teams working with relevant orgs couldn't for years (and won't ever succeed by the nature of this)

/ @bgiromini 2) She was pumped by Musk and Musk's shills. Always sus.

3) She didn't act like a victim at all. Real victims are either very introverted (90%) or even more sl*tty. Not a 100% proof but adds to the pic.

/
Jan 31, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
👀
Jan 30, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Not too many, only 2,719 new Teslas to be sold in Europe from inventory. And that's with many ships not even departed and ~25k MY not made in Berlin!

$TSLA $TSLAQ Image This is a big jump. I suspect that someone accidentally unhid a lot of inventory, or added the ones from ships without hiding them first.
Jan 21, 2023 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
1/ A good week (or two in China) after the huge $TSLA price cuts it's time to delve into the data and see where things stand.

Let's start with China🇨🇳

$TSLAQ. 2/ 1st week was terrible, but okay, it takes time, it only included Fri-Sun. 2nd week was much better at 12.6k, but is that good? (h/t @MoneybaII_R)

Bulls say yes, it's a huge WoW increase, similarly good compared to the 2nd week of Q4. I disagree.

Jan 1, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Berlin ramping up while European backlog going away and demand collapsing in both Europe and China will make Shanghai capacity obsolete. Shanghai will make fewer cars in each of 2023 quarters than in 22Q4.

$TSLA $TSLAQ 2/ Steep price cuts are needed in all theatres. Not only ASP will fall but unit costs will go up (even if COGS goes down, which is unlikely IMO) due to worsening scales of economy in Shanghai.
Jan 1, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
"Otherwise a great car"

Luxury vehicle handover experiences from Germany.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
Dec 29, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
1/ I've read the rumors about the thousands of unsold Teslas waiting at the Berlin airport. Apart from the fact that I haven't seen pics, it's important to note that there is still a little backlog in Europe. However, it's impossible to say how big. I'll tell you why 🧵 2/ Most importantly: it used to be possible to postpone delivery (some ordered well in advance for the car to be ready by the time their leases end; in Germany to get a new car every 6mo and sell the "old" one, to max out reg credit, etc).
Dec 27, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
OMFG

$TSLA $TSLAQ Note the Model 3... Worst quarter in at least 3 years.

Dec 19, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Place your bets for tomorrow's CPCA, @TroyTeslike @TSLAFanMtl @scidood

$TSLA So everyone, how many cars has Tesla delivered last week (we'll get confirmation from CPCA tomorrow morning)
Dec 18, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Not even many $TSLA bears understand how bad the new order situation is. Despite that Tesla is set to have a huge record quarter in Q4. This 🧵is to explain how it is possible, and what comes next.

$TSLAQ

2/ To make things simpler, let's assume that "Tesla sells all the cars it can make", so production = deliveries. In the last couple of quarters, this was more or less true

We'll have to estimate an opening backlog and new order rates. In the following tweet, they are theoretical
Oct 24, 2022 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
1/ European demand 🧵

Germany, UK, France and Norway account for ~70% of European $TSLA sales. As I can mostly observe Germany together with Austria and Switzerland, their share approaches 80%. Pretty clear picture.

$TSLAQ 2/ Sadly, it's quite difficult to find reliable data from the UK, but forums are pretty active in the German-speaking countries and France, and there is some acceptable data from Norway too.
Oct 24, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/ $TSLA cutting prices now means at least one of the following two:

- @elonmusk is done selling his shares for the $TWTR deal
- the situation is this bad

Make your bet.

$TSLAQ 2/ Tesla China already operated at much lower end-user prices than the US, yet in 2021, it accounted for more than 100% of profits.

Regardless, given that the vast majority of the volume comes from MY SR and some from MY LR, this is a 30% margin cut.