Ex-founder. 20+ M&A deals. Now I underwrite public stocks like I bought private ones and publish it all. CPA-verified +52% on 8 figures in 2025.
Apr 18 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
$IREN 2026 Model --> OK this is complex to put in a full thread, as my models runs on an Excel sheet through 2030 (link at the end)
It starts with megawatts.
$IREN goes from 60 MW deployed today to 500 MW by year-end 2026. Sweetwater: one of the largest AI campuses globally, is getting energized this month.
At $7.4M/MW/year and 57% revenue recognition (capacity ramps through the year):
2026 AI ARR: $3.7B
2026 Recognized revenue: $2.1B
Feb 11 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
1/ I am sharing here an extract of my report on $IREN earnings. Better late than never. There's a bonus with my PTs at the end of the thread
TL;DR
Story: Unchanged. Price action: down 25%, Action: hold.
$IREN reported Q2 FY2026 results that reflect a company deep in its transformation from BTC miner to AI Cloud platform. Revenue came in at $185M (down 23% QoQ), driven by declining BTC mining as GPUs replace ASICs, while AI Cloud rev more than doubled to $17M. The net loss of $(155.4)M is almost entirely noise, $219M in non-cash/one-time items from convertible note mechanics and a debt conversion inducement expense.
The real story is what happened outside the P&L: $3.6 billion in GPU financing secured at <6%, a new 1.6GW site in Oklahoma, and $2.3 billion of AI Cloud ARR now under contract. They're on track to deploy 140k GPUs by end of CY2026, targeting $3.4B in AI ARR.
I am not concerned at all about the short term price action and holding my shares tight. If anything, I plan to add slowly as this, market wide, sell off resolves.
2/ Expectations vs. Reality Scorecard
In my expectations piece (sent before earnings), I estimated a 60% chance of positive capacity-related news and a 30% chance of a binding deal on par with Microsoft. Here's how each item landed:
Dec 15, 2025 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
When I size a position into the 7-figure range (think $APP, $IREN, $LMND), I run a simple 7-step checklist.
Not every name passes cleanly, but nothing scales without clearing a high bar.
Here’s the framework:
1) Business clarity
Can I explain in 2-3 sentences how this company makes money and why customers stay? If I need a 20-slide deck to justify it, I’m not ready to size it up.
