THREAD

How much does China spend on defense?

A hardy perennial question!

US officials and analysts suggest it now exceeds $700B—rapidly approaching the level of the US defense budget.

1/ The @washingtonpost reports that INDO-PACOM Commander Paparo states that "China’s military budget is likely three times what Beijing publicly claims"—about $700B



2/washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/…

Xi may have introduced a new "tifa" or formulation for China's foreign policy at the NPC to address China's "profound and complex changes in the international and domestic environment":

沉着冷静、保持定力，稳中求进、积极作为，团结一致、敢于斗争

news.cn/politics/leade… 1/ Loose translation:

"Be calm and maintain determination, seek progress through stability, actively achieve something, unite and dare to struggle"

2/

This story on Wang Huning is really making the rounds. The main claim is that he stayed on the Politburo Standing Committee to focus on Taiwan and unification. However, the story’s sourcing and reasoning is somewhat weak.

asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks… First, the story’s main source is “source familiar with the inner workings” of the CCP. The descriptor is so vague that the credibility of the information is not easily assessed. And it is a single source.

Important article by Xu Qiliang, outgoing vice chair of the China’s Central Military Commission, in the People’s Daily.

A thread:

paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2022… 1/ The article is entitled “Achieving the 100-year goal of building the army as scheduled,” focusing on the PLA’s modernization over the next five years through 2027.

It is part of a series of articles to “earnestly study and implement the spirit of the 20th Party Congress.” 2/

In assessments of the national defense section of the work report XJP delivered at the opening of 20th Party Congress, there is much discussion about 2027 and the what it means for the PLA, and whether the report signals that PLA modernization is accelerating. 1/ See, for example, a great thread by @LyleJMorris 2/

https://twitter.com/LyleJMorris/status/1582441202485719040?s=20&t=A40dSkPVzr_D6ZZVMoyjLQ

Xinhua releases read-out of Xi-Putin meeting:

news.cn/politics/leade…

No mention of either Ukraine or "no limits" in the China-Russia relationship. 1/ Per Xinhua, Xi said

1. China and Russia have maintained "effective communication" this year

2. China/Russia should give "strong support" on issues concerning each other's core interests

3. China/Russia should deepen "practical" cooperation in trade/ag/connectivity, etc. 2/

China has conducted ballistic missile tests with 16 missiles.

They landed in three closure areas to Taiwan's northeast, east, and southeast.

A short thread. 1/ Video from the PRC MOD

-- shows the DF-15 short-range ballistic missile being fired from several locations
-- unclear if other missiles were used
-- includes a map showing 16 pins landing in closure areas 2/

Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is confirmed via @CNN, @FT and @WSJ (though not yet publicly by the Speaker or her staff).

How will China respond?

A short thread 1/ A few things to bear in mind:

First, since last fall, after Biden's two gaffes in October, senior Chinese leaders have expressed elevated concern about changes in the US "One China" policy and US policy toward Taiwan. 2/

US-China relations are entering perilous period. A short thread. 1/ The upcoming Biden-Xi phone call later this week, reported by @Dimi, is likely to force both sides into a box from which it will be hard to escape. 2/

ft.com/content/7f2bbb…

Some new tidbits on China's position on Ukraine in Wang Yi's press conference during the National People's Congress:

fmprc.gov.cn/wjbzhd/202203/… 1/ — Xi told Putin during their Feb 25 call he hoped to see peace talks as early as possible 2/

China’s statement at the open meeting of the UN Security Council convened to discuss the situation in Ukraine 1/

chnun.chinamission.org.cn/eng/hyyfy/2022… TL; DR

Much continuity with the position Wang Yi conveyed to Blinken, but more detailed. 2/

https://twitter.com/fravel/status/1486710710138589193?s=21

China's readout of SecState Blinken's phone call with FM Wang Yi contains new language on China's position in the Ukraine crisis—it contains China's most detailed public statement to date. 1/ English (news.cn/world/2022-01/…) and Chinese versions (english.news.cn/20220127/4f5c6…) of China's readout have been published and appear to contain roughly the same text. 2/

China’s curious silence over the growing crisis in Ukraine.

1. The MFA press conference transcripts include not a single question on the topic (I’m sure it was asked but the non answer was not posted.) 2. The only article in the People’s Daily (and news item on the MFA website) describes Xi Jinping’s congratulatory note to Ukraine’s president on the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties with Ukraine.

Parsing the DoD China Military Power Report and whether it concludes China seeks to compel negotiations with Taiwan by 2027. 0/ A few stories based on the report are drawing such conclusions, such as taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4334990 1/

Interesting authoritative "commentator" article page 2 of today's PLA Daily newspaper, on weapons development:

81.cn/jfjbmap/conten… 1/ On the one hand:

Since the 18th Party Congress, "...the technical situation of weapons and equipment has been greatly improved, and the overall level of weapons and equipment has been significantly improved." 2/

Remarkable document just released by DoD, “General Milley's Engagements with the People's Liberation Army Leaders” [PDF] cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2021/image… It affirms the high level of concern about conflict: "Mid-Sep: PLA officials claimed that PRC leadership remains concerned of a plot to provoke a conflict with the PRC."

Will China soon outgun the United States? Will procurement spending by China’s military surpass that of the United States in 2024?

A short thread This projection comes from a report by the Long Term Strategy Group, as described in @politico’s China newsletter.

politico.com/newsletters/po…

Since late Nov 2020, @US7thFleet has issued press releases for freedom of navigation operations it conducts. Targeted maritime claims include those of Russia, Japan, China, Vietnam, the Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, India, and the Maldives. The reports below provide details about what claims were challenged and how they were challenged.

Is Taiwan a US treaty ally?

Is the PRC's "One China" principle the same as the "One China" policy of the United States?

No.

A brief thread on some useful reference sources. 1/ Here's a short explainer from @BonnieGlaser and Mike Green (@JapanChair) at @CSIS: csis.org/analysis/what-… 2/

Big news — the good folks from ⁦@CASI_Research⁩ have posted a complete and downloadable translation of an important Chinese military text, the 2013 edition of the Science of Military Strategy (战略学). h/t ⁦@CollinSLKoh⁩ 1/ The translation can be downloaded here: airuniversity.af.edu/CASI/In-Their-… 2/

Lengthy readout from Xinhua of the Blinken-Yang call yesterday xinhuanet.com/english/2021-0… Interesting tidbit from PRC readouts of Blinken-Yang call:

- Chinese version states Blinken affirmed the US “one-China policy” (一个中国政策)
xinhuanet.com/world/2021-02/…

- However, the English version translates this as “one-China principle,” which is not the US position