Le PLF, article 3, introduit un impôt minimum de 20% sur les très riches

En l’état cette mesure rapporterait assez peu, 2 milliards au plus

Mais avec de petites améliorations, elle pourrait rapporter 10 x plus, et changer radicalement l’équation budgétaire

Voici comment 🧵 Résumons : la France a un taux de prélèvements obligatoires relativement élevé

Toutes les catégories sociales payent donc, sans surprise, beaucoup d’impôts : peu ou prou 50% de leur revenu tous prélèvements confondus (TVA, impôt sur le revenu, impôt sur les sociétés, CSG, etc.)

Que penser de ce qui, d'après les dernières rumeurs, s’annonce comme l'une des innovations principales du budget Barnier — l’impôt minimum de 20% pour les très riches ?

🧵

lesechos.fr/economie-franc… Cet impôt minimum part d’un bon sentiment : combler une partie du déficit en mettant à contribution ceux qui ont à la fois des revenus très élevés et, grâce à l’optimisation fiscale, des taux faibles

Hélas, le dispositif proposé par Barnier rate sa cible

Delighted to release this paper on Auten & Splinter’s work, painstakingly going through their code & assumptions



We uncover key mistakes—and show that once fixed, their methodology implies the same rise of inequality as in Piketty-Saez-Zucman

🧵 gabriel-zucman.eu/files/PSZ2024.…
Since the first version of their work, AS has been a moving target

Key aspects of the methodology changed from one version to another, though the bottom line results never change

Now that their paper is published we can finally see what’s behind all that

A historic statement at the Rio summit today

There is now a consensus among G20 countries that the taxation of the super-rich must be fixed — and a commitment to work cooperatively to fix it

It’s an important step in the right direction 🧵

https://twitter.com/g20org/status/1816593483710230640

It is not easy to have all G20 Finance ministers agree on anything

Until February of this year, the taxation of the super-rich had never been discussed at the G20 — not once

In just five months, thanks to the leadership of @Haddad_Fernando, considerable progress has been made

Thrilled to release this report commissioned by the Brazilian G20 Presidency today

Just like we have a minimum tax on multinationals, we need a minimum tax on the world's super-rich—and it has become technically feasible

🧵with the main findings and proposals Our tax systems do not effectively tax the wealthiest individuals today

We know this thanks to pioneering research, often conducted in partnership with tax authorities, which shows a recurring pattern:

All taxes included, the super-rich pay less than ordinary workers

I was delighted to speak to the finance ministers of Latin America, reunited at @cepal_onu in 🇨🇱, to explain why it is necessary—and possible—to create a coordinated minimum tax on the super-rich

This is key to fight inequality, the climate crisis, and poverty

🧵 The Global Tax Evasion Report 2024, which our @taxobservatory released last year, estimates that a minimum tax on global billionaires equal to 2% of their wealth would generate ~$250 billion per year in tax revenue

$250 billion, from less than 3,000 under-taxed individuals

Back from the IMF/World Bank Spring meetings, where — six weeks after the beginning of the work at the G20 on a coordinated taxation of the super-rich — there was palpable "tax the rich" energy in the room

A few notable developments 🧵 First, two Nobel Prize winners — Esther Duflo and @JosephEStiglitz — endorsed the proposal for a coordinated minimum tax on global billionaires

My speech at the G20 today — making the case for a coordinated minimum tax on the super-rich, and more broadly calling for new era of multilateralism, focused on rooting out the inequalities that can corrode democratic societies

+some thoughts on the reactions... 1/n



In the response by the ministers, there was strong support for the idea that we need new forms of cooperation to tax the super rich, increase tax progressivity, and fight inequality

This in itself is a historic development — for too long these issues have been ignored

Is rising US inequality an illusion? For people who want to make an informed opinion, I suggest starting with the official US government series 🧵 Taking the series as published (no attempt at harmonizing, etc.) – just the official headline series

Start with CBO

Let's talk about Auten and Splinter's work on US inequality 🧵

gabriel-zucman.eu/files/as-respo…
There has been an enormous increase in the concentration of income visible in tax returns in the United States

Because it's directly observable, nobody denies it

Who pays taxes, and how tax reforms would affect the different economic groups, are arguably some of the most important questions in modern democratic societies

Excited to share this NBER working paper, out today, that proposes a new (& hopefully better) way to do tax incidence The current practice of tax incidence originated from foundational scholarship conducted in the middle of the 20th century

It then evolved somewhat organically—and today has quite severe issues

We try to overcome those by proposing a new framework founded on optimal tax theory

Thrilled to publish the Global Tax Evasion Report 2024

A first-of-its-kind international research collaboration, building on the work of more than 100 researchers, coordinated by the @eutaxobservatory

With striking new findings

Thread 🧵

https://twitter.com/taxobservatory/status/1716220384972857381

End of bank secrecy, global minimum tax for corporations… the fight against tax evasion has been at the center stage of the international policy agenda over the last decade

What are the results?

Like in Sergio Leone’s movie, there is the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly