[THREAD]
Update on rest of $PAVM's biz segments.
- Minimally Invasive Surgery (CarpX)
- Infusion Therapy (PortIO + NextFlo)
- Emerging Innovations (DisappEAR + Solys)

Exercise is to discuss product/potential but also analyze changes in Mgmt commentary over time.

Please DYODD. 1/ Minimally Invasive Surgery...

Carpal Tunnel Syndrome ("CTS")
- Median nerve compression
- Numbness/weakness/pain
- >50% of occupational injuries
- 5mm U.S. adults
- 2mm visits but 600K procedures/yr
- Typical sol'n is open surgery (long recovery time)
- 1mm+ silent patients

[THREAD]
Couple more thoughts on Lucid before we move on.
- What a Binary EsoGuard Test Means
- Revisiting Treatable Population + Test Frequency
- Is EsoCheck Uncomfortable?
- Learning Curve for NPs
- Highlighted by NCI as Advance in Cancer Prevention

Enjoy! 1/ One of the most bullish arguments that I believe strongly applies to $PAVM is that GI physicians will be supportive of the technology.

EsoGuard Test is binary. What this means is that results literally just show "Positive" or "Negative".

What does this mean?

[THREAD]
Deep Dive on Lucid Diagnostics $PAVM
- Product Offering
- $EXAS for esophageal cancer?
- Market Sizing
- Go-to-Market Strategy
- Massive Return Potential (>10x)

Future $PAVM threads on other segments and risk.

Have a starter position.
Please DYODD.
Let's dig in. 1/ GI Health segment operates under Lucid Diagnostics, 74% owned by $PAVM per Needham Conf. (81.9% per 10K).
Founded '18.
$PAVM financed $17.5mm.

Patent licensed from Case Western (CWRU) for EsoCheck & EsoGuard.

Per 10K, CWRU holds 8.4%. 3 physician inventors each w/ 2.9%.

[THREAD]
After re-listening to parts of Panel Meeting, I think it is safe to assume:

- $TMDX would only be used for extended-criteria hearts only. For ex. >=4hrs ECCT

- Existing SOC volume won't convert over to OCS (unless run back PROCEED Trial to prove OCS better than SOC) 1/
Updated U.S. TAM table above...

- Total Donors (DBD + DCD) same as previous version (30.4K) per $TMDX 10K

- "Already utilized" organs now reflect actual '20 OPTN data (instead of back-calc from 10K)

- Split in unutilized organs between DBD and DCD extrapolated from 10K

Schroder just started presenting at $TMDX Meeting Schroder crushed it with his closing sentence for his segment saying OCS technology not only solves current quantity in the waitlist but can also allow an increase in waitlist size.

He literally said that there are plenty of good hearts out there - - just need to use OCS.

1/ $TMDX results are positive, but FDA's job is to question things every step of the way.

In spirit of being informed / keeping a balanced view, below are some FDA concerns:

- Trial design (single-arm study)
- $TMDX's subjective definition of extended-criteria hearts
... 2/ - Extended-criteria hearts in EXPAND also include single-criterion >=4hr cross-clamp time, which actually make it somewhat overlap w/ PROCEED group

(i.e. imperfect definition extended-criteria heart)

1/ We've mentioned before that extra utilization for DBD Hearts is 81% when using $TMDX.

The comparison between OCS and UNOS SRTR in the tables below is pretty powerful. Look at % in p. 36.

OCS can expand pool into donors w/ various risk factors (previously unused organs). 2/ 19% of 93 hearts in study turned down.

Main reason being lactate rising, which is a biomarker mentioned by Dr. Schroder in presentation earlier.

Out of 75 hearts used...
24% age >65%
64% history of mechanical circ support
16% F-to-M mismatch
15% renal dysfunction
...

[THREAD] Detailed thoughts on $TMDX below

- "Key Geographies" Supply-Driven TAM
- U.S. Supply-Driven TAM
- Demand for Organ Transplants (Lung/Heart/Liver)
- Larger donor list --> larger recipient list
- Quick revenue sizing based on current demand
- More positive catalysts 1/ Company-provided TAM from $TMDX's 10K of $8.02Bn for lung, heart and liver.

This is supply-driven i.e., sizing opp by unlocking utilization of previously unused organs.

"Key Geographies" per $TMDX include US, Canada, EU and Australia.

1/ Senator Bill Frist, MD ($TDOC Board Member for 7 years) on CEO Jason Gorevic:
“One thing that obviously impressed me about your leadership is your ability to say where you’re going based on, as you've said, a plan from 7 years ago - the pyramid that you’ve always presented... 2/ ...that this is where we’re going to be someday. Everybody presents that, but you made it real block by block. I still have those initial slides of your presentation. As you’ve said, none of this is new in your mind.”
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