Rewarding PMs or any other kind of product team lead with promotions based on outcomes, as opposed to quality of decision making and execution, is essentially saying to your team: /1 "Your luck (or maneuvering) in getting on the right project is more important than anything else." And it takes attention away from the real task at hand for everyone: making quality decisions and reacting well when some of those decisions are inevitably wrong. /2

1/ had a couple conversations where senior prod leaders felt stymied by their boss in terms of implementing their values; then got into trouble because teams/people under them weren't executing well 2/ "I wasn't allowed to do X" doesn't play well at the senior level. Acceptable and realistic at junior level, but not really at senior.

1/ for a decade now, entrepreneurs have been asking themselves "do I have product/market fit?" They usually answer it wrong. 2/ pm-fit does *not* merely mean growth. Growth can be forced for a time (even years) with clever hacks and heavy spend, but the piper comes calling with churn rates.