A real masterclass in competition among electrolyser manufacturers from BNEF's Head of Hydrogen Martin Tengler during a recent Hydrogen Europe webinar.

Here's what you need to know to be up to speed.

1) Electrolyser demand is not keeping up with planned mfg capacity. 2) Chinese electrolyser systems are 3-6 times cheaper than Western competitors. Key factors:

🧑‍🏭 Cheaper labour
🏭 World's most developed supply chains
🔩 Lower quality materials
🥵 Overestimating product specs (remember this one it's important!)

Pursuing lax rules for accessing hydrogen production tax credits under the IRA might result in more electrolyser sales domestically.

However this would come at a cost of ceding U.S. potential to become the world's green chemical exporting superpower to CN. Thread 1/10 You see, US has loads of land and good renewable resopurces, but China has some of the world's best renewable resources to produce electrolytic hydrogen. 2/10

Map taken from: iea.org/data-and-stati…

Will green hydrogen cost declines follow a solar-like pathway? Or are they more like batteries? Perhaps something else entirely?

In an excellent report Ramboll - an EPC firm - makes the case that electrolyser plants could be a mix of all 3.

Here's what that means for H2 capex: Most of the public forecasts of electrolyser plant costs use learning curves to determine future costs. This has worked well for predicting solar and battery prices in the past, and learning curves can. be constructed for electrolyser stacks too. However...

Most discussions of electrolysis revolve around the competition between alkaline and PEM technologies.

But what about solid oxide (aka SOEC)?

Proud to announce the release of my technology deep dive in collaboration with @cleanaircatf ! A couple of key findings: Solid oxide electrolysers are also known as 'high-temperature' electrolysers because they operate at >500C, and take steam, rather than an aqueous solution, as an input.

Ever wondered what is the true cost of an electrolyser system?

Electric Hydrogen - the most funded startup to emerge in the last two years - just released a super interesting white paper. They claim to be twice as cheap as incumbents.

How will they do it? 🧵 While other manufacturers might provide just the stack (1/2 the cost of a system), EH2’s offer includes the stack, the balance of plant, and commissioning services. This close integration likely allows EH2 to pass on the margin of EPC contractors as cost declines to the customer.

Slow than expected demand ramp up, and massive overcapacity - that's the state of today's electrolyser industry.

BloombergNEF expects just 5 GWs of shipments next year against 30+ GW of manufacturing capacity. And yet, lead times for bankable electrolysers are 2+ years!

Short🧵

Some electrolyser manufacturers like ITM have already pared back their gigafactory ambitions. I suspect many others will be running their factories at low utilisation.

hydrogeninsight.com/electrolysers/…

Geologic hydrogen is a hot topic right now. Is this another hyped up play, or is there something more to it? I've taken a deeper dive, and here's what I found (1/n)

hydrogeninsight.com/production/it-… First, a little context. We've known for decades that hydrogen does seep out of the earth, despite many articles claiming that it 'doesn't occur naturally'.

The greatest example is a well in Mali which powered the local village for over a decade. 2/n

science.org/content/articl…

One where the venerable Rowan Atkinson comes out in favour of hydrogen vehicles and synthetic fuels.

Rowan claims to "drill into the facts" but what he's really doing is rehashing time and again debunked myths.

theguardian.com/commentisfree/… First, he points to the high embodied emissions of lithium ion batteries, which he says are full of rare minerals and 'only last about 10 years'.

I feel like I should issue a correction to this: electrolyser manufacturing has yet to fully automate, but it's well on the way there. Once that state is achieved, there are relatively few 'breakthrough' mfg techniques that can supplant what's on the horizon.

https://twitter.com/gnievchenko/status/1663834278881288196

I do believe obsolescence of currently gigafactories might come with new, radically improved electrolyser designs (+ those breakthrough mfg techniques like dry coating). BUT as @chemical_ben and
@ETH_EPG have pointed out, this probably won't be as drastic as for solar.

🔋Last two weeks saw two really good explainers on novel battery tech.

1⃣ Sphere Energy review of solid state batteries:

static1.squarespace.com/static/62920f0… 2⃣ Why you should start paying attention to sodium ion.

https://twitter.com/IntercalationSt/status/1648786561775828996?s=20

I don't understand what the point of all these hydrogen conferences is. It's the same people patting each other on the back over and over again. You can take any quote from any dude from any panel and it will be the same cringe hopium. Hydrogen conference bingo

>rare minerals
>EVs not suitable for every one
>heavy duty
>quick refuelling
>exports
>ammonia
>efficiency isn’t everything
>pipelines
>Japan

The Clean Hydrogen Liftoff report from the DOE is a stunning piece of work. I’m absolutely loving the estimates on willingness to pay. Quick remarks on new paradigms:

🚛 Hydrogen trucks can be well in the money in the US
🛩️ As can H2 aircraft (liquid included!) Residential heating, blending with natural gas, and baseload power still don’t make sense H2 PTC notwithstanding.

Report can be found below
liftoff.energy.gov

This is such a misleading comparison.

First, putting a pioneering LH2 ship against 50 years of development in LNG carriers.

Second, assuming same liquefaction and boil off for a scaled up LH2 ship.

Apples to mandarins to oranges. Though I don’t think we’ll be shipping liquid hydrogen globally, I wouldn’t be surprised if some does happen.

You wanna get smart on this? IRENA has a solid analysis.

irena.org/-/media/Files/…

@mikehemsley @david_joffe @andiwagner IRENA has a series of reports in 3 parts looking at hydrogen trade, with Part II focussing on hydrogen carriers

irena.org/publications/2… @mikehemsley @david_joffe @andiwagner EU's JRC has recently released a report on hydrogen delivery options as well

publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/han…

Here's why you shouldn't write off hydrogen trucks just yet:

https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/1592191807592402944

Yes we've seen studies from T&E, The ICCT, Auke & others still time and again showing battery electric trucks have the lowest TCO in most cases. But don't underestimate the challenges of permitting and local opposition to charging & power infrastructure rollout!

🚢What is the future fuel of shipping? Too early to tell, but there are some interesting developments.

🔋Most alternative fuel ships in operation and on order are either LNG or... battery!

⚗️Note also 56 methanol ships and 0 ammonia.

Data from @DNV_Group AFI Battery ships are mostly coastal like ferries or offshore supply vessels. A recent paper argued they could make sense even for ultra large vessels but to me recharging would become quickly challenging - 300 MW supply to recharge one ship per day!

nature.com/articles/s4156…

Wow, the response has been incredible, thanks everyone!

Unfortunately, I must admit to making two errors.

https://twitter.com/gnievchenko/status/1545409816130207744

First, the degradation of Hysata might not be as much of an issue as I claimed. If true, it means we’re closer to ultra-high efficiency electrolysis than I assumed.

https://twitter.com/trez97/status/1545488845155835906?s=20&t=Ypa38b4ulNllxSnwkwS1Ng

Hydrogen efficiency will beat expectations🥊

After spending the last six months looking at cutting edge hydrogen tech I believe that the prevailing view that hydrogen is inefficient needs an update.

There’s much innovation to be excited about on the horizon. Take this T&E chart for instance, which assumes that electrolysis is 76% efficient, and fuel cells are only 54%, which together account for the bulk of the losses. Almost every paper out there uses similar, often worse, numbers.

Have you ever asked yourself ‘what is the role of #hydrogen in climate neutrality🐢?’ We’ve spent the last 11 months trying to piece together a picture from the wealth of research and analyses out there. Below highlights from our recent publication 12 Insights on Hydrogen?📺1/8 In European 1.5C scenarios, hydrogen and hydrogen-based products are most useful in industry🧑‍🏭and transport ✈️🚢, with a potentially large role in the power sector⚡️. Building heat🏘️sees minimal hydrogen. 2/7

Lots and lots of tangy insights in @IEA's freshly pressed Global Hydrogen Review 🍊

It's a big piece of work but worth getting to the bottom. Congratulations! 👏

Below 5 of my favourite graphs 📊

iea.org/reports/global… 1. Though hydrogen is crucial, renewables and electrification are still the most important drivers of emissions reductions.

🚨ICYMI: Last week, @ETC_energy released two exciting deep dives; one on electrification, the other on #hydrogen

🧵with some of my favorite charts 👇(1/9) 🏭Debates around future hydrogen demand are heated, but we can all agree on it's importance for the industrial sector.

🔥 Small role in building heat

🚛🚢✈️Important role in transport, but sub-sectoral allocation varies

⚡️I'd say power is the wildcard here (2/9)