I love Odd Lots. However, this interview was disappointing.

The premise was an “update on this thing that was overhyped 10 years ago”—self-driving cars. What it revealed is how little has changed—and that the challenges that dog AV dreams persist.

🧵on a few big open questions:

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1699830395733213197

Tim's thesis here is fairly limited: self-driving taxis will become a much bigger deal. I have no view on that, but I'm also not sure how much it matters. And, I think sketching the implications is the hard part. So there's a motte/bailey thing going on that I found frustrating.

It is often overlooked that capitalism is a liberal idea. One of humanity’s greatest inventions—the corporation—is built to pursue profit even if the king denounces its owners or plans. Toleration of firms, w/needed controls, has been essential to not only prosperity but freedom.

https://twitter.com/patrickdeneen/status/1659387578317955075

When I say capitalism is a liberal idea, I mean classically but also, perhaps more controversially, in modern terms. Individual self-actualization, eg, as laborers, consumers, investors, believers, etc. is far richer under the sorta-capitalism of the large majority of the OECD.

At the risk of annoying some followers, if you do a master’s in urban planning and want to earn a reasonable living, you will likely work for a consulting firm that does this sort of work, whereas if you go to law school you have many other options—immediately and long term.

https://twitter.com/kounkuey/status/1659256781305171968

Some law schools also have very generous loan repayment programs. Plus there’s the various government programs.

News organizations just seem constitutionally unable to assign agency when the agent in question uses a car. Imagine a headline reporting "Man Whose Gun Fired Bullets" where the police and witnesses had identified him as the one squeezing the trigger. To state the obvious, identifying the agent as an agent (rather than merely the owner of the gun or car) is not dispositive of the question whether he is legally culpable for their deaths. He still receives a presumption of innocence, can mount affirmative defenses, etc.

Thrilled to share "Regulating the Pedestrian Safety Crisis," just published

The motivation was simple: ped deaths are up 50%+ since 2010, but @NHTSAgov is the only responsible agency that has failed even to notionally prioritize pedestrian safety. Short 🧵ssrn.com/abstract=41765… @NHTSAgov @nyulawreview (Ungated link to the full Essay is in top tweet and here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…)

"In 2018 analysts put the market value of Waymo…at $175B. Its most recent funding round [estimated it at] $30B."

"Forget about profits—what’s the combined revenue of all the [AV] companies? Is it a million dollars? Maybe. I think it’s more like zero."

bloomberg.com/news/features/… Robots are great at many things (and improving), but the human brain is simply superior technology for many everyday applications in human world. (In a world created by computers, there would be more reasons to prefer robots.)

One way to think about the role of lease timing in return-to-office plans:

Imagine two peer firms with 10-year large-footprint leases, one that expires in December 2029 and the other in December 2022. Which one would you expect to put more effort behind mandatory in-person work?

https://twitter.com/emmabgo/status/1566505111735545857

Relevant background:

—Subleasing would be at a loss, if feasible at all
—Managers & owners reportedly favor in-person work more than employees
—In theory, remote work (still) involves more unknowns than in-office c. 2019*

*No one seems to think 2019-level face time is possible

Anyone have a theory on what's going to slow house prices?

On the demand side, we have low rates, equities & savings ⬆️, delayed HH formation now materializing, stimulus, some increase in telework, etc.; supply: zoning, raw materials & labor shortages, empty nesters staying put. Love the sentiment, but sadly this would probably increase prices by further reducing supply :(

https://twitter.com/nonmouse/status/1386003879540649985?s=20

A great post for its realism & sensible disaggregation of linked issues. In the US, EVs have extraordinary climate mitigation potential. They don’t solve everything (eg road deaths, congestion). But given land use constraints they’re a very promising strategy in near/medium term.

https://twitter.com/noahpinion/status/1369264203781996549

I’m even more optimistic on EVs as decarbonization than this. They mechanically replace ICE 🚗 trips ~1:1; no transit intervention does. And, it’s easier to make few centralized changes to the grid than countless distributed ones to transpo infra/behavior.
noahpinion.substack.com/p/we-will-not-…

May have to write on this, but policies to reduce car deaths no more require a personal opinion about cars than policies to reduce theater fires do about theaters. It’s mystifying how regularly I get notes—from smart people!—to the effect of “cars RULE” or “cars SUCK.” Anyway. Countries with traffic death rates one half, one quarter of ours per population. Do you think they “hate” cars? Lol.