“For all that I held the helm, and with a strong hand, the waves were even stronger. I was never in truth my own master; I was always governed by circumstance.”
Dec 8, 2025 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
history/biography/philosophy - excerpts & quotes from recent reading (part 4)
"But little do men perceive what solitude is, and how far it extendeth; for a crowd is not company, and faces are but a gallery of pictures, and talk but a tinkling cymbal, where there is no love."
Nov 13, 2025 • 7 tweets • 5 min read
some essays below for anyone sick of shallow, toxic and banal Twitter bullshit
I wrote them for people actively trying to reach their own potential: self-mastery, "shadow work," perfection of character...the facing of one's flaws.
topics: Duality, Passion, Energy, Pain, and God
ON DUALITY
Explores vices masked as virtues; "Your greatest weakness is your greatest strength taken too far."
"A harmless man isnt good; a good man is a dangerous man who has that under control."
References: Plutarch, Nietzsche, Jung, La Rochefoucauld
(1/10) "The years teach much which the days never know." --from Emerson's "Experience"...one of the finest paragraphs ever written
Oct 15, 2025 • 11 tweets • 10 min read
Thread on PRESSING WINNERS - arguably most important and most difficult part of the game...walking thru the cognitive dissonance, mental incongruence and various thinking errors that get in the way of "riding a multi-year winner in size."
(1/10) INTRO
That's the best phrase I can come up with...“riding a multi-year winner in size”...in terms of what historically generates the bulk of a manager's outperformance.
Go look at the greats, study how Buffett and Munger did it, and you'll recognize the following patterns and principles...
1. When they’re right, they’re RIGHT IN SIZE. A top idea can be sized 15-25% at cost and run to 40%+ at market.
2. They press their winners, and they're willing to buy more at higher prices.
3. They hold for multiple years, two to five, if not longer.
Oct 8, 2025 • 15 tweets • 22 min read
Thread on Blending Fundamentals vs Technicals in portfolio construction -- CHART FIRST -- Lazy thinking in long/short equity -- FY2 Vs. DCF -- Incremental Buyers/Sellers...capital velocity and avoiding "dead money"...duality, humility and arrogance.
"SUCCESS CLOUDS THE MIND."
(1/14) CHART FIRST
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“Any time I get into a position, I’ll look at the chart first...I always default to the chart. It is critical for entry points.” - Steve Cohen, SAC Capital
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Let’s talk about fundamental analysis and technical analysis.
Too often, people view them as an either/or proposition.
Fundamental analysts will dismiss charts as voodoo, claiming they have nothing to do with business analysis.
Technical analysts will dismiss fundamental analysis, claiming that the chart contains all the information they need.
The truth is that winning portfolio managers know how to use both, and blend them to varying degrees in portfolio construction and risk management.
Of the two styles, technical analysis is far easier to understand, and you can learn the basics in less than a year by reading books.
Fundamental analysis takes several years of study just to fully comprehend financial statements and how to value a business, which must also be followed by several years of real-time market experience: watching how equities are priced in real-time and getting familiar with the “embedded expectations” that each stock carries with it.
A portfolio manager is part analyst, part trader. The analyst side represents fundamental analysis, the trader side represents technical analysis. While not all portfolio managers use technical analysis, in long/short equity it is rare to find one who doesn’t.
This same mentality, “chart first,” is prevalent across the hedge fund industry.
Why?
Oct 6, 2025 • 18 tweets • 18 min read
Thread on "BECOMING A CONSISTENT WINNER" - Trading psychology, Mental Capital, emotional volatility, boom-and-bust P&L cycles, self-mastery, common trading errors, humility, patience, discipline, and equanimity.
(1/17) - INTRO
this is a MENTAL GAME...ideas matter, process matters, but at the end of the day your level of self-mastery is the ceiling.
in this thread I pull in a handful of quotes, checklists and frameworks from Mark Douglas and Ari Kiev, specifically "Trading In The Zone" by Douglas and four books by Kiev ("Trading to Win", "Trading in the Zone: Maximizing Performance with Focus and Discipline", "Psychology of Risk", and "Mastering Trading Stress").
also, even if you've "read" Munger, re-reading some of the things he's written (like "Psychology of Human Misjudgment" - fs.blog/great-talks/ps…) is a reminder that all great thinkers need to be re-read top-to-bottom every three to five years...the truth about books/reading is that you don't need to read all the books... there's maybe 500-1000 great books that you just need to reread over and over again as you grow and change.
Thread on SIGNAL VS NOISE - "Return on Time" for an analyst - Navigating FinTwit, figuring out WHAT MATTERS...Critical/independent thinking...predictive power, sample size, macro considerations, frameworks and mental models. Very long thread.
(1/12) INTRO/FOLLOW-UP
"Success is a poison that should only be taken late in life and then only in small doses." Anthony Trollope
there's a few things I glossed over in the last thread (x.com/gregoryblotnic…)...for reference, all prior mkt threads and longform are here in the Highlights tab: x.com/gregoryblotnic….
The one thing I always kept taped to my desk was a table from Mauboussin's book of base rates (mjbaldbard.wordpress.com/wp-content/upl…), but I'd also add that a list of cognitive biases will serve you well...I'm not sure if there's one list that I'd recommend in particular (there's tons on Google Images) but they affect investors at all levels of the game and need to be mastered.
Two examples of biases from last thread that I should've labeled:
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1. "For any position, there exists some fact X that would invalidate your thesis and lead you to sell. This should ideally be planned for in advance ("pre-mortem"). There is also some other fact Y, that you didn’t see coming...it couldn’t have planned for because the future is unpredictable, and yet this fact ALSO invalidates your thesis. Thus, you should sell."
This is CONFIRMATION BIAS. The brain filters all incoming info in a way that conforms to your priors. The point of this statement was that on any given day, X could arrive or Y could arrive, and if they do, you sell and don't look back. Most people are trapped in confirmation bias and don't operate this way..have to step outside yourself and view the game like an omniscient narrator.
2. "I think about something like TSLA ten years ago...smart fundamental guys short. But just watching price action, it shook off bad news over and over and over, marched higher, traded well in tough tapes. If you were to ask a PM to step outside himself, and say... "just based on newsflow, price action, reaction to newsflow...which way is this stock going?" They'd tell you "absolutely no question - this stock is going much higher."
That's also confirmation bias to a degree, but it's ENDOWMENT BIAS - thinking of a position differently because you own it / P&L is attached - and that creates cognitive dissonance.
There's probably 10 more just in those two examples alone, but being able to identify and mitigate these (like in Munger's "Psychology of Human Misjudgment") is incredibly valuable.
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On overcoming these biases daily, the correct mindset is that each morning, if you wouldn't recreate your portfolio exactly as it is (enter each position at current price), you need to make changes. The pushback is "taxes" but in L/S there are no tax considerations, everything is short-term and you are expected thru portfolio turnover to overcome these tax disadvantages (hence the high fees). This was discussed in the Lee Ainslie "no holds" intvw (x.com/gregoryblotnic…).
Sep 18, 2025 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
history/philosophy/biography - excerpts and quotes from recent reading (pt 2) >>
1/10 - The decline of modern education (from Prideaux's Nietzche bio)
Sep 16, 2025 • 11 tweets • 12 min read
Thread on fundamental L/S analyst "tips and tricks," potential sources of edge & pockets of alpha, sustainable & AI-resistant areas where one can hope to pull dollars out of the mkt...unit economics/modeling, primary rsch, and translating qualitative input to quantitative output.
(1/10) INTRO
Some of this may seem obvious to a 20+ year professional, but at the same time, a lot of it wasn’t clear to me until 10+ years in as an analyst...file under "shit I wish I was told earlier"...because the first 5 years in L/S, you’re mostly just trying not to break anything, watching and learning markets, getting “reps,” and doing error-free work. That applies even if you came from IB/PE and understand financial statement analysis... "The Game" just takes time to learn.
It wasn’t until year 7 or 8 for me where I could pin down my “circle of competence” in Buffetts words, the tiny little corner of the market where I have a high hit rate, setups where I win more than I lose…and then even understanding all of that, I still have yet to execute on it consistently in a way that yields a 5-10 year track record of outperformance…that’s the only output, the sole arbiter of truth, and all “process” talk without a track record attached to it is a gigantic jerkoff slash mental masturbation.
So with that said, as with prior threads, I’m not "that guy," I'm one of the stupidest motherfuckers to ever work in L/S, and this thread is just me tossing a bunch of shit out onto the floor...you can pick up what’s potentially useful to you and trash the rest. Much is a work-in-progress in my mind as well, stream of consciousness, esp with alt data/AI/multi-mgr dominance which continues to “eat” or evolve fundamental L/S...and so while I'm wrong a lot, I'll try and point out what seems like fertile and sustainable hunting ground, vs what is getting arbed out.
Sep 8, 2025 • 19 tweets • 45 min read
PROTECTING “MENTAL CAPITAL" - Thread on DRAWDOWNS + Risk mgmt in theory and practice - the evolution of my own framework/philosophy driven by LOSSES and fuck-ups - Self-mastery, attitude, discipline, humility, careers, answering Q&A from prior posts. LONG THREAD (10-15 min read).
INTRO/Feedback from prior thread:
“You’re putting effort into these threads that I really should be putting in, but I’m not.” – appreciate older/wiser pros who reached out with some version of this...if you are "real" you can still help the reader by putting your stamp/co-sign on what you deem good advice, doesnt have to be mine, can be anyone. A name/CV plus "co-sign" goes a LONG way in helping readers cut through the noise on here.
For jr analyst DMs, you are asking excellent questions…I was hoping to tweet about something besides markets, but many of you have correctly identified what appear to be gaps in my logic, inconsistencies or contradictions, and I am compelled to answer. (last thread: x.com/gregoryblotnic…).
That, and I also just know that if you get 3 DMs asking about something, there are 30 people who have the same question and didn’t reach out. As for the non-markets material, I will just have to gracefully weave it in..."trading in the key of life," you could say...although anyone with experience in both endeavors knows that they’re really two sides of the same coin.
As always, in the event you disagree with anything written here, “you’re wrong” doesn’t really help the reader...show us what “right” looks like, write up your own philosophy and post it, I will gladly point to yours as superior. Like I said before, I’m bottom 10% of this industry, I KNOW the upper 90% are lurking on here somewhere, and they have wisdom that I need.
But until they surface, we remain firmly in the land of “those who speak don’t know, those who know don’t speak.” Where am I, you may ask? Just as philosopher-king Gerry Rafferty once sang...stuck in the middle with you.
Sep 3, 2025 • 13 tweets • 33 min read
advice I wish I'd been given at a younger age - "stock pitch" thread Q&A - modeling - the L/S industry - answering DM's en masse - a brief note to the professionals - discipline, process versus outcome, general career shit, path for "outsiders," and other FAQs...Very long thread.
(1/12) A HUMBLE NOTE
One brief note to the professionals...allow me to make an observation, which is that there is a severe imbalance on here of students vs teachers.
It's possible I'm just an antiquated fossil from the days of old FinTwit, where posting your work in real-time, pitches and models, respectful discourse, "poke holes in my thesis," like, that was just the norm...clearly we lost that...Gresham's law but for tweets, where the bad drove out the good.
That said, I'm definitely not "that guy" nor am I fit to be... meaning, I started in the hf industry in 2009, I've met thousands of equity analysts since then, and I know where I stand...somewhere in the bottom ~10% of intelligence and ability. But those other 90%, they're all definitely on here - in 2016 trump got elected and twitter became de rigueur...moves markets...ya gotta be on it.
I haven't posted anything special, jr/mid-level pitches and analysis...but to have 10-20 new DMs each time I log in, something is off...answering them doesn't bother me, I wouldn't be posting if it did, but my reaction each time is sort of just, like...really?...where the f is everyone lol
Plus, having been on here for a while...as soon as someone gets engagement, it awakens the crabs in a bucket...like..."oh he wants to be THAT GUY? F him...I'ma get his ass." Bro... I do not care about this twitter shit, trust me...I'm not here to be somebody. The brattlestcap account had a pretty big following, and the only thing it taught me is that this nonsense, grown men playing "engagement games," spending 9 hours a day chasing anonymous clout and defending imaginary avatars of themselves...the whole snippy, snarky, faux-intellectual "gotcha" subculture... its a gigantic jerkoff. "Vanitas vanitatum, omnia vanitas."
To spend all day on here arguing with people...as if you're going to singlehandedly eradicate ignorance from the internet...is no different than when Caligula declared war against the sea. I look back at all the hours I've ever pissed away on "scrolly apps" and am hard pressed to think of a bigger waste... literally jail is a more productive use of time.
I pop in a few times each week here to try and share something helpful, but I'm 99% in DMs, I stay off the feed and I become more anti-social media...anti-internet really...each day. This shit rots your brain and destroys your attention span, and if you try reading a paperback after a day of scrolling, you'll see what I mean...as the great philosopher-king George Carlin once said, "It's bad for ya"...and rarely a day goes by where I don't think about just hucking my phone into the intercoastal.
The times I do post, out of my 630 tweets, 620 have nothing to do with markets. The other ten are all prefaced by some degree of "FYI, I'm absolutely fucking retarded"... to borrow Seneca's analogy, I'm speaking from the hospital bed next to you... no answers to give, just another sick patient searching for cures. Even putting aside my own fuck-ups, every single year I watch guys 10x older and wiser than me, my old role models and idols, continue to get blown out or fired. Trading markets is eternally humbling, an absolutely brutal way to make a living...L/S in 2025 exponentially harder than 2015...it's been 16+ years since I started, yet many times I feel like I'm stupider than when I began.
anyway, look...to the professionals who are lurking...this app has a major "those who know dont talk, those who talk dont know" issue. I'm not "that guy," but I know many of you are...if you ever decide to take 2 mins of your day and scribble some shit out, it will be VERY well-received on here, because the supply of wisdom is vastly outstripped by the demand to learn. There's an entire galaxy of potential content that doesn't even touch "compliance land."
You can write out "10 things I've learned about L/S", or about risk mgmt, about port construction..."the time I blew up my PA"...advice on getting hired....how to pitch a stock...traits of good vs bad analysts...SM vs pod, generalist vs sector focus... "what I learned dating a girl with 232k insta followers"...what I learned mixing leverage with stimulant abuse...theres endless stuff to write about that will help the 21-year old version of yourself, who is on here desperately searching for it.
to sum this all up: I'm 38 and no different than many of you - disillusioned and cynical, the inevitable toll of trading markets for a living - but you gotta step outside yourself, my brother...the 18-25 yr olds, they still have that fire that many of us lost lol.
And for those of you "old heads" of fintwit, yes, the vibes have drastically deteriorated, and yes, the last chopper out of Saigon took off a bit ago...think Obama was still in office...but complaining and whining is lame as fuck, and its foolish to ask the universe for energy that you arent putting out first...whatever this app may be, you may as well carve out a slice that "is" whatever you make of it.
To wrap this note up... if you believe in karma, believe in God, believe in paying it forward...twtr, as much as I'm burnt out on it, is like democracy in that it is "the worst form of internet except for all the others." It remains an incredible force multiplier...and while I know you're busy, I will gently plant the seed...if a time should ever come where you feel like sharing, it takes only a small effort on your part to have a large impact.
/fin
Aug 26, 2025 • 14 tweets • 14 min read
for jr/mid-level analysts, or IB/PE going into L/S equity, or "outsiders" trying to get a seat...I pulled together a handful of "live" investment pitches from back when I was interviewing for HF analyst roles...there is a lot in here that may be of use to you, take what you need.
as a disclaimer, these are all 5+ years old, they're probably not actionable, I'm not involved in any of them, do your own due dili -- educational/informational use only. They are most valuable from the standpoint of process, template, formatting, checklist/criteria, and how to organize your thoughts in an "industry-standard" way... some are better than others, I'll point out weaknesses/flaws in each
Mostly, as I was going through these, I asked myself: "If I was in my mid-20's, would I have found these useful?" And the answer is ABSOLUTELY...back in 2012 or 2013, I was on Twitter as a young analyst trying to step my game up...these pitches would've saved me a ton of time, because most of what I know, I learned from getting laughed out of interviews. pitching stocks is EVERYTHING in L/S, and it's all reps...even if you're coming from IB/PE and understand basic biz analysis, there's still a multi-year learning curve to the "pitch"...PM's are busy and you really have 60 seconds verbal or one page written to drive your point home.
lets get into it >>
Aug 21, 2025 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
excerpts and quotes from recent reading >>
(1/10) from Bertrand Russell’s autobio... very X dot com:
“I shared the general belief that the motive of self-preservation is a very powerful one, which, when it comes into operation, generally overrides all others...
...I found this was a mistake.
There is a motive which is stronger than self-preservation: it is the desire to get the better of the other fellow.
I have discovered an important political fact that is often overlooked, as it had been by me: people do not care so much for their own survival—or, indeed, that of the human race—as for the extermination of their enemies.”
Jul 22, 2025 • 11 tweets • 9 min read
assorted thoughts on fintwit, on L/S equity, fund management, analyst vs pm, knowledge of self, mental capital…some lesser known, underdiscussed parts of the game…long, loooong thread.
(1/10) first...to be clearr, I’m not a talented investor/analyst/PM, and in HF world I’m a nobody…I’ve been in the industry since 2009, I've had the honor to work for and work with a lot of unbelievably talented PM’s, I've made an enormous amt of mistakes, and that’s really all I can offer. Having a good attitude, being humble, loyal, relentlessly optimistic and having passion for the game is the only reason I ever got anywhere…God knows how many doors were opened for me that I didn’t deserve. I say this as not to be held in any higher esteem than is merited.
ultimately my #1 rule of FinTwit is below...and so a lot of the discourse on here, I don’t participate…I haven’t earned the right to x.com/gregoryblotnic…
Jul 16, 2025 • 14 tweets • 6 min read
long-ass thread on health, habits, discipline, mindset and attitude...adjustments that changed the trajectory of my life..."put yourself first"
"HARD CHOICES, EASY LIFE"
in their late thirties men embark on two entirely separate paths: guys who commit to their physical health, and guys who don’t. This decision basically determines what your life looks like from age 50 on
the guys who committed, they all look way younger than their age and are full of energy. The guys who don’t look like absolute shit, their bodies, faces, demeanor, physiognomy... at worst, the entry of health problems that plague you until you die
