Associate Dir. Institute for Future Conflict. Author: Last Refuge. New book in-progress. PhD: @princeton Formerly @buzzfeed & UN Yemen Panel. Personal Views
Jan 12 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
Thread: A few things to keep in mind as the US watches to see if, when, and how the Houthis respond to last night's strikes. First, the Houthis need and, in many ways, want this war for reasons that have nothing to do with Gaza.
On the regional front, this gives Iran some plausible deniability. Iran can uses the Houthis to escalate, while maintaining publicly that the Houthis are independent actors.
Jan 12 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The U.S. simply does not have good options in Yemen. Option 1: Do nothing. Result: Houthis continue to attack commercial shipping.
Option 2: Limited airstrikes. Result: risk a spiraling conflict and Houthis likely to continue attacking commercial shipping.
Option 3: Sustained and continuous airstrikes. Result: risk getting caught in another war in the Middle East.
Apr 7, 2022 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
1. A not so short thread on tonight's news on Yemen from Riyadh. There is a lot to parse, but Hadi removed Vice President Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar and then transferred the power of the presidency to an 8-man presidential council.
2. This is, obviously, a major shift. Presidential councils are unwieldy creations at best, and this one is likely more of a Frankenstein than most.
Jan 19, 2022 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
With the news that the UAE is asking to US to re-list the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, a (maybe not so) short thread on how US policy toward Yemen, over the past three administrations, has been the worst of all possible worlds.
First: the Obama administration. In early 2015, the US mostly wanted to ease regional concerns over the JCPOA deal that was about to be signed. 2/
Jan 17, 2022 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
A couple of notes on today's claimed attack by the Houthis in the UAE.
First, it will be important to confirm that the Houthis actually carried out the attack. Previously, in 2019, the Houthis claimed an attack on Abqaiq in Saudi Arabia that later turned out to have been conducted by Iran. 2/X
Feb 16, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
In the summer of 2018, the US had leverage on Saudi Arabia and the UAE and was able to stop a military offensive on Hudaydah that many in the humanitarian community worried would lead to many preventable deaths.
The US currently lacks leverage with the Houthis, and as a result it is unlikely that the US will be able to halt the Houthi offensive on Marib, which has been ongoing - in fits and starts - since early 2020.
Feb 10, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The current UN Security Council Resolution on Yemen (2511) expires on February 26. A good indication of where the Biden admin is headed in Yemen should be evident from what the US presses for in the new resolution.
Every UN resolution since 2015 has used UNSC Resolution 2216 as its basis. This, as many people including myself believe, is no longer a helpful framework.
Feb 10, 2021 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
Thread on Yemen: There are a lot of important questions for the US to answer about Yemen in the near future. But from a strategic point of view perhaps the most important is: can Yemen be reconstituted as a single country?
If the answer is "yes" then that is what the US should work towards.
Jul 26, 2018 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
A quick thread on what is happening in and around Yemen and what it (might, maybe, possibly) means.
On Wednesday the Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, causing light damage to both ships. reuters.com/article/us-yem…
Jun 12, 2018 • 27 tweets • 3 min read
A brief thread on Yemen, the Houthis, and how we got here
The first Houthi war starts in June 2004 when the Yemeni government under Ali Abdullah Saleh attempts to arrest Husayn Badr al-Din al-Houthi.
