45-day Heat Flux at 10mb has been on a sharp and steady rise since record low numbers in late November, with more to come (orange line is forecast from NASA MERRA 2 model)
Strong heat flux thru the troposphere and stratosphere also indicated in the forecast here on the GFS
Dec 26, 2020 • 21 tweets • 6 min read
Euro Op run from 12z Dec 25 has an official SSW at day 10 on Jan 4.
Wind reversal at 1mb occurs on day 9 and at 10mb on day 10. Lofty heat flux spike is forecasted over the next 10 days as there are 2 big Siberian highs descending into EAsia during this timeframe