My preliminary out-of-consensus reaction to the Moody's downgrade of Pemex debt is that it signals a slight reduction in Mexico country risk. In this thread, I explain why:

1/ As my coauthor @deliyo and I noted here last fall, , we see Pemex as a threat to Mexico's sovereign rating insofar as the sovereign signals open-ended fiscal support for Pemex.

2/transeconomics.com/timoneconomico…

Will be live-tweeting speech by @yanisvaroufakis
convention from the Mexican Institute of Financial Executives annual. Thread:

Estaré tuiteando en vivo un discurso de Yanis Varoufakis de la convención @IMEFOficial. Abro hilo: "Capitalism is going through a spasm". Yet, markets are going extremely well. The disconnect, the chasm between the world of money and the world of enterprise tells us that
"we don't even have capitalism any more".

Abro hilo sobre huelga femenina en México el 9 de marzo.

Hermanas, recordemos: un día de huelga es un día de trabajo (social y política).

/1 Un día de no salir a la calle puede ser un día para educarnos y reflexionar sobre las propuestas de políticas públicas siendo debatidas orientadas a frenar la violencia de género y sobre medidas privadas que cada una puede tomar. Comparto algunas reflexiones al respecto:
/2

Back finally from travels, I comment on the Mexican Treasury's fiscal stimulus announced last July 29. It does not alter my dismal outlook. I see four reasons for today's slump: /1 1) investor confidence has been wiped out by 1a) the policy direction; 1b) the president's authoritarian rhetoric (he is irrational, anti-accountability, anti-institutions, in general anti-modern, infusing business leaders with the sense that the country is moving backward), /2

1/n
Dear American followers, I recommend giving Mexico risk a more prominent spot on your world watching radar. A crisis here would make your life tough (ask Colombia). Institutions are under attack, irrational decisions are being made, and our leader has

https://twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/status/1157344846752944128

2/n a strong authoritarian bent. I understand that these things are happening in the USA too, but your institutions are older and stronger than ours and your president is far less popular. We who are worried are not right-wingers. My own political orientation is

1/n
Diario se me pregunta ¿qué va a pasar y cómo puedo protegerme/mi patrimonio? Mi respuesta sin o con AMLO/Trump/guerra comercial/inversión curva rendimientos EEUU/riesgo Pemex/riesgo pérdida calificación grado de inversión/ebola/secuestro ... es la misma hoy que siempre: 2/n

Nadie sabe. Para protegerte: (quizás asesorado), identifica los diversos escenarios. De los escenarios negativos, identifica los intolerables. De los escenarios (riesgos) intolerables, identifica los que puedes cubrir ...