Climate-energy-macro modeling provides the missing link to evaluate how microeconomic policies such as the Inflation Reduction Act affect macroeconomic outcomes--including employment, wages, and costs.

The new CEA-OMB White Paper outlines how to deliver this missing link. 1/

https://twitter.com/WhiteHouseCEA/status/1780222154702819662

Ultimately, climate-energy-macro modeling will enable us to address important questions:

➡️How do climate risks affect the macro situation?
➡️How do climate and clean energy policies mitigate risks?
➡️How do policies interact with one another to affect the macro situation?

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To understand how @POTUS’ Investing in America agenda is going, let's dig into three questions:

1) What did forecasters expect *before* IIA passed?
2) What did they forecast *after* it passed?
3) What has *actually* happened?

A🧵on some initial answers to those questions. 1/ The Investing in America agenda was designed to produce affordable, clean energy and enable American manufacturing of critical goods. We’ve been tracking indicators that pertain to both of these goals. 2/

New data show that private companies have announced plans for about 94 GW of new clean power generation projects since @POTUS took office, representing an estimated $133 billion in investment as of August 2023. A thread (and new blog!) about clean energy job growth… 1/ These investments have spurred strong job growth. Between January 2021 and March 2023 (most recent data), the economy added 21,000 jobs in power generation and supply--reaching its highest level in more than a decade after a prolonged decline in the industry. 2/

There’s a lot of talk about Bidenomics out there. But what is Bidenomics? And 2+ years in to the Administration, how is it going?

A thread with figures—and maps! 1/ To understand Bidenomics, we have to start with the challenges. @POTUS entered office after half a century of rising inequality and racial gaps—between 1979 and 2020, workers’ productivity grew nearly 62%, but the average worker’s pay and benefits increased by just 18%. 2/

Last week, we learned that in August, real spending on the construction of manufacturing facilities hit a record high! A thread on what is happening with manufacturing and why manufacturing matters for our economy. 1/ The President has signed into law a set of laws that encourage and support investment in the domestic manufacturing of critical goods—things like semiconductors and clean energy technologies that are vital for economic growth and national security. 2/

This week marks the one-year anniversary of the CHIPS and Science Act—a historic investment that builds domestic semiconductor supply chains, strengthens our STEM workforce, and fosters national and economic security. Here’s an update on progress over the past year … 🧵 The CHIPS Act invests in America by providing $39 billion in incentives for domestic semiconductor facilities, $11 billion for research and workforce development, $10 billion for regional technology hubs, and more. 2/
nist.gov/chips#:~:text=…

Accessible, affordable, high-quality early care and education benefits parents, children, & their communities. But while nearly 60% of children under age six in the United States receive nonparental care on a regular basis, the early care market is fundamentally flawed. 1/ Last week, @WhiteHouseCEA outlined four key challenges in the early care market (@chloergibbs):
➡️low pay leads to high workforce turnover
➡️care is labor-intensive so expensive
➡️families are price-sensitive
➡️care business models are fragile 2/
whitehouse.gov/cea/written-ma…

NEW TODAY: This morning, DOJ and FTC released a draft of their updated Merger Guidelines for public comment. Our new CEA brief highlights why these Guidelines are economically important and some key highlights. 🧵 1/
whitehouse.gov/cea/written-ma… The Horizontal Merger Guidelines were last revised in 2010. Since then, a lot has changed, not only in the field of economics but also across the U.S. economy, including the rise of digital markets and platforms. @MSinkinson @PeggyLoudermilk 2/
https://t.co/SulkiOafAawhitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…

I’ve talked a lot about the recent surge in manufacturing construction, but what does that mean for economic growth? In the first quarter of 2023, ONE FIFTH of GDP growth came from manufacturing construction spending. A thread about why Bidenomics matters for growth. 1/n As described in a recent brief, the President’s Investing in America agenda—the first pillar of Bidenomics—includes a set of historic legislation, designed to grow the economy by working with the private sector to build the economy from the middle out. 2/
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…

Two years ago, on June 8, 2021, the White House released its 100-day supply chain review.

Today, critical supply chains are stronger and more resilient—and in the latest data, the NY Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index was at its lowest level on record. A thread. 1/ As described in the White House Supply Chain Report Card released today, in the months since the 100-day supply chain review was published, more than 70 of the recommendations in the review have been implemented. 2/
whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…

I am saddened to learn that last night, Bill Spriggs passed away. Chief Economist to the AFL-CIO and a professor at Howard University, Bill dedicated his life to understanding and deconstructing institutions of inequality. He was an excellent researcher, colleague, and friend. 1/ Bill represented the *very best* of economics, with a steadfast determination to shape and inform policy that works for *all* Americans. 2/

A new website for the investing in America agenda, released today, shows that since @POTUS took office, private companies have announced over $470B in manufacturing & clean energy investments & the Admin has awarded over $220B in infrastructure funding. 1/
whitehouse.gov/invest/?utm_so… And it’s not just data on *announcements* that show the private sector responding. In April alone, *inflation-adjusted manufacturing construction spending* rose by 9 percent. 2/

Good news in today’s jobs data—339k more jobs, strongest prime-age labor force participation rate in 16 years, & strongest prime-age women’s participation rate on record.

We've seen almost 800K manufacturing jobs under @POTUS, but in May we lost 2,000— Should we be worried? 1/ We expect that we’ll need 100s of 1,000s of workers to implement the President’s invest in America agenda. Although we’ve seen a slowdown in manufacturing and (to a lesser degree) construction job gains, there are reasons to think these numbers will improve. 2/

Last week, Energy Innovation released a new tool to help us better understand the state-level benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). It presents a picture of how the IRA is building our clean energy economy state by state. 🧵/
energyinnovation.org/publication/fe… Energy Innovation models the effect of IRA incentives for both American consumers and producers to shift toward cleaner projects and technologies—namely, tax credits for electric vehicles and for producing or investing in facilities that produce clean energy. 2/

TODAY: @commercegov released a new funding opportunity to build semiconductor facilities in the US through the #CHIPSandScience Act! How does this bring together clean energy, good paying jobs, affordable childcare, economic resilience, and more?🧵
nist.gov/news-events/ne… Today’s announcement is emblematic of using public incentives to simultaneously deliver on building strategic supply chains for our economic and national security while also investing in our care infrastructure. 2/

This week, the White House hosted a convening on Blue Chip Climate-Risk Macroeconomic forecasting, bringing together climate and macroeconomists from the public and private sector. A thread on why this is essential and some of what we learned... 1/
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/… Economic forecasts shape our understanding of the economic moment. They make use of proprietary and public data, and a variety of models and analytic tools to put trends affecting the economy into a narrative that makes sense. 2/

In honor of tonight’s State of the Union address, a reminder of the economic progress the Biden-Harris administration has made over the past two years building an economy from the bottom up and middle out. THREAD 1/ @POTUS faced historic challenges when he took office; only 1 percent of the population was fully vaccinated, we had an unemployment rate of 6.3%, and the economy had 9.4 million fewer jobs than before the pandemic 2/

Today marks the 30th anniversary of President Clinton signing the Family and Medical Leave Act into law, the *FIRST* bill he signed as POTUS. It is the foundational piece of a policy agenda to support workers and their families. A thread ... (photo at end!) The FMLA provides eligible employees 12 weeks of unpaid leave without fear of losing their job or group health insurance. Leave can be used to care for a loved one or one’s own health and can be extended to 26 weeks to care for a family member who is a servicemember. 2/

A new database launched last week by @WB_DOL @USDOL includes county-level child care prices across the U.S. and makes clear the unmanageably high costs of child care for American families – and the dire need for policy solutions. THREAD. 1/
dol.gov/agencies/wb/to… The database, and accompanying brief, documents that, in 2018, median annual child care prices ranged between $5,000 and $18,000 (in 2022 dollars) per child--the equivalent of between 8% and 19% of median family income. 2/
dol.gov/sites/dolgov/f…

The Inflation Reduction Act makes historic investments in clean energy. To learn more about trends in energy jobs, we dug into @BLS_gov’s Quarterly Census of Earnings and Wages for Q1 2022. This data allows us to look at what’s happening for all kinds of energy jobs. THREAD/ In the first quarter of 2022, job gains in the energy sector were relatively broad-based: large sectors like electric power generation, electric power distribution and storage, and coal mining gained jobs, as did key renewables industries such as solar, wind, & hydroelectric. 2/

This morning we learned that in September, the unemployment rate declined to 3.5% and the economy added 263k jobs, with strong gains in healthcare and leisure and hospitality. 1/
whitehouse.gov/cea/written-ma… And there were other bright spots – the Hispanic unemployment rate, for example, hit a record low since the series began in 1973. 2/