Thread:

Every UPI transaction eventually terminates at a Bank.

Banks have a 100% share of UPI payment terminations.

But they have less than 1% marketshare of the consumer interface on UPI.

They have simply handed their customers over to the Payment apps.

+ The Payment app: mobile-aware, context-aware, retains transaction history and interconnected across mobile apps and sensors.

The Bank app: appears to be designed for the bank, not the customer.

(I am a HDFC Bank customer, YMMV! 😀)

+

Thread:

Stock market are at lifetime highs and ALL izz WELL with the economy?

Not really.

There is NO paradox here.

The listed firms are a part of the formal economy. They are NOT the economy.

cnbctv18.com/economy/salari…
1/x The listed firms grow bigger & more profitable at COST of the informal economy (& smaller firms)

So, while the overall economy shrinks, these firms grow.

Competitive intensity is lowered resulting in gains for larger firms.

Of course, global flush of liquidity adds fuel.

2/x

What the Zerodha salaries are saying:

YES, we have built a hugely profitable, closely held company.

NO, unlike several exemplar Indian promoters we won’t twist and turn the law to avoid taxes and simply draw down fully tax-paid salaries.

This is the new India. Kudos👍 And here's a friendly reminder that India CANNOT become a 5 Trillion dollar economy without the FORCE of private enterprises.

The Government/laws need to encourage it, celebrate it.

And simply get out of the way - let the builders build!

Growth means more taxes!

Laws in India are continually revised and tested and tested again - against changing context and our Constitution.

This is just another test to refine it.

Why assume that the law-making has been a perfect process?

The other pillars exist for a reason.

https://twitter.com/news18dotcom/status/1397796279229419521

And this is not a foreign vs Indian debate or test.

This is a test of what privacy is and in what circumstances should it be discarded, and by what institutional process.

And how does that institutional process itself evolve with checks and balances.

Of course....

There a real danger of celebrating the end of the second wave when it has actually not happened.

The actual cases are probably on a different trajectory from what the reported numbers show.

Possibly the bulk of cases are from rural India, where testing is negligible...1/x ..and there is hesitancy to report both the illness and death.

The rural CFR rates could be at odds with urban India

We know from local press that death numbers are nowhere close to reconciling.

The entire data set being used for decision making could thus be compromised. 2/x

Consumer Surplus and Radhe

A pointless Sunday thread

Films are very curious economic entities.

For a fixed price they can deliver an very wide range of consumer surplus, from positive to negative.

Let me elaborate: Let’s take persons A and B

For a fixed price of 249, their experiences can vary

If A is a die-hard Salman fan - they bring the collective delight of their past experiences with his movies (case in point "Ready" - 4.7 on IMdB)

Their consumer surplus can be virtually unbounded

Unpopular Thread time:

The job is NOT just to unlock.

The job is to unlock SAFELY.

In a manner that saves lives and RESTARTS economic activity, without further stops and starts.

And avoid a third wave and a fourth wave. 2/n

This needs a debate BEYOND the noise around current vaccine ordering and shortage.

The supply constraint WILL resolve itself in a few weeks (imports, scaled+distributed manufacturing) but that’s NOT enough.

But we need meticulous planning on next steps.

Why?

The fault is ours.

For over 75 years we have voted in leadership who put votes over everything else. Over development, over infrastructure, over education, over rule of law, over strong institutions.

It’s not this Party or that Party. It’s not any Party.

It’s us. Come divide us.

Over caste, religion, agendas...

Celebrate decisions that make our “group” happy for the upcoming election, but suck the life out of the country in the future.

And of course, why do we need accountability when we can use the winning formula again, and again.

Why is this a discussion?

Just clear 1,00,000 cr or whatever it takes to get the vaccines as an “emergency budget.”

We will lose that money anyway if we have extended lockdowns, lives lost, working days lost!!

It’s a 10 minute decision.

It’s our taxes anyway!

https://twitter.com/shekhargupta/status/1383453470859038735

The economic losses from a deep second or third wave will far exceed the costs of vaccination.

And in any case, WE pay all the bills.

Post pandemic, it is time to relook at the digital opportunity in India.

We are on the cusp of a once-in-a-lifetime transformation of our Nation.

A thread from my conversation with @NandanNilekani on @FoundingF

👇 2/n The digital *consumption* economy (YouTube, Netflix, Facebook) in India will get dwarfed by the digital *transaction* economy (payments, shopping, digital services).

The change is happening as we speak.

NPCI’s marketshare capping on UPI payment platforms is a shot across the bows of Big-Tech which has cross-subsidised and (ab)used consumer data into market dominance.

The move will create precedent that will have far-reaching global impact.

Thread.

livemint.com/industry/banki… 2/n While the merits and demerits of a 30% marketshare limit can be debated, it’s clear that Society and regulators have begun to think through the mechanics of limiting Platform Power.

Note: NPCI is not-for-profit entity run by consortium of Indian banks

The thread below was written on 19th March.

Today is 19th May.

It hasn’t aged well. Unfortunately.

The stimulus package of 20L crore is largely “indirect" & will take long to percolate down the chains of firms.

Liquidity without Demand is like Ajit’s Liquid Oxygen.

1/

https://twitter.com/hchawlah/status/1240541341945192455

We now face the prospect of losing more lives to poverty than disease.

As we exit lockdown, the cases will inevitably BALLOON.

OTOH, not resuming economic activity, will delay getting to herd immunity, and push millions below the poverty line.

There is no choice anymore

2/

1/n The NUMBER of transactions in the economy have come down.

That’s the core issue.

Liquidity is a necessary, but not a sufficient condition.

Liquidity is fuel, but we need to jumpstart the economy’s frozen battery.

Most of the the current 20B$ "package" is... 2/n Most of the the current 20B$ "package" is Monetary, where credit & timing of cashflows has been made flexible.

Cutting my TDS will not incentivise me to spend - I may not even notice it. It's my money anyway.

It doesn't thaw the demand "freeze" - doesn't make me transact.

This is the most poignant, heartbreaking story on the plight of the migrants, and their state of mind.

We have failed them.

We may not realise this but we are losing vital knowledge.

Labelling them simply as migrant workers is missing the point.



+ They are micro-knowledge workers.

Trained on the job, apprenticed with skilled workers.

They carry the know-how of how things are done - how a lathe is oiled, how paint mixes with thinner, how a collar is stitched

Small things vital to the flow of work in an enterprise.

+

1/n

Question:

It is INEVITABLE that resumption of economic activity will lead to some level of increase in cases, and unfortunately consequent fatalities.

A Green area could move to Orange and then to Red and to Containment.

Does that mean... 2/n Does that mean it becomes a case of rolling lockdowns and START-STOP in economic activity?

or

Should it become a case for redirecting RESOURCES?

Redirect testing, tracing and isolation resources to the affected area, and restoring normalcy.

1/n This is going to be an unpopular thread:

The PURPOSE of COVID lockdown should be:

1. Have FEWER interactions involving as FEW humans as possible.

2. Ensure they are TRACEABLE, in case of any spread. 2/n Of course, we need to keep emergency services and essential supplies on.

But we need to do that with military precision, else the purpose is simply DEFEATED.

So here’s FIVE points we could consider:

1/n Let's spin time forward.

Clearly, a prolonged lockdown is UNSUSTAINABLE.

At some inflection point, the damage from the economic hit will surpass the health hit - despite all the economic boost that we apply.

We WILL need to find a way to resume economic activity. 2/n How will we do that?

How do we re-start activity while balancing it with health risks?

Till we find an effective treatment protocol or scientists engineer a vaccine (could be months/years away)

It means allowing people to slowly get back to work!

1/n While we mull economic packages, the IMMEDIATE PRIORITY should be to procure FULL protective gear (not just masks and gowns) for our healthcare workforce (Doctors, Nurses, Assistants).

No matter what it costs.

Else we face two dire consequences: 2/n They need protective gear that isolates them a 100%, else:

1- They fall ill themselves

2- They become super spreaders.

They are risking their lives and handling multiple patients.

A a small tear in their suit or masks, a little oversight and it can be lethal.

1/n The Chinese experience with COVID has handed the world a DOUBLE whammy. A thread: 2/n The FIRST whammy: suppression of information within its own bureaucracy. Hundreds of thousands people escaped Wuhan before quarantine was imposed.

Face-saving social behaviour propagated this - it has been compare to Russia’s Chernobyl.

Much has been written about it.

1/n About 4 weeks ago (23rd Feb) I tweeted that the fatality rate for Covid has been under-stated as it reflected numbers of infected who got ICU level care.

https://twitter.com/hchawlah/status/1231401046058184704?s=20

2/n Since then, unfortunately, the virus overwhelmed healthcare capacity in nation after nation.

Italy, Spain, USA...and the list grows.

We cannot allow that to happen in India.

This graph explains more:

1/n I hope this thread DOES NOT age well.

I hope we discover most Indians are immune to Covid19. Our healthcare/testing infrastructure does not collapse and this crisis blows over in weeks.

Life goes back to normal - kids go to school and spouses to work.

However.. 2/n However, if the above doesn’t happen - here are some things to think about:

We are possibly facing the biggest ECONOMIC DISLOCATON of Independent India.

There is no playbook, no living memory of such an event.