Demographer interested in improving how we measure the impact of epidemics in countries with limited civil registration. Professor @NYUAbuDhabi.
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May 7, 2021 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
IHME started publishing estimates of what they call “total mortality due to COVID-19” for nearly ALL COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD. They’re all over the press, in part because of their US results. Worse yet are their guesses for low and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs). A🧵1/n
In many LLMICs, the coverage of testing for SARS-CoV-2 is very low, so confirmed COVID deaths are a fraction of all COVID deaths. Unfortunately, few of those countries have death registration data that allow monitoring excess mortality from all causes 2/n bbc.com/news/world-afr…
Apr 21, 2020 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
A thread on the measurement of excess mortality and uncounted COVID19 deaths. Key point: be careful inferring number of uncounted COVID19 deaths from a look at all-cause mortality data 1/n
Excess mortality is generally understood as the number of deaths (from any cause of death) we are seeing now (e.g., this week), minus or divided by the number of deaths we would have seen IN THE ABSENCE OF THE COVID19 PANDEMIC. 2/n
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