RTÉ programming on the Catholic Church this past week has renewed the Q of whether it's a dying institution.

I used to think it was.

But I've come to understand the trends 📉📈 which point the opposite way.

It relates to my thesis on the "milestone recession".

1/

The rule-of-thumb most people follow is "linear decline".

Catholic identity and mass attendance used to be 90%+ some decades ago.

The 2022 census shows closer to 70%, with mass attendance dramatically lower.



2/thejournal.ie/irish-populati…

Landlords are selling and the rental crisis is probably going to worsen in the short-term.

I want to explore one reason why this is happening.

TL;DR - interest rates are rising and mortgage repayments will probably rise faster than rents.

1/

🧵 First, some structural facts:
- 59% of tenancies are with landlords who have just 1 or 2 properties
- At least 52% of rental properties have a mortgage against them, either a buy-to-let (BTL) or owner occupier (OO).

2/

Ireland's rental crisis is worsening.

It comes as thousands of students are seeking accommodation before the start of term.

You hear a lot about vacant homes, but we don't talk enough about vacant rooms.

Here are some numbers. 🧵

1/ Vacant rooms are in occupied dwellings.

The 2016 census shows us the mix of households by number of rooms.

For example, 42,239 households have 10 or more rooms.

That's 2.5% of total or 1 in every 40 homes.

2/

Today, over *400* pages of 📊 data was published by @RTBinfo. 😲🤓😃

They surveyed tenants and landlords on the rental market in Ireland 🇮🇪

A super comprehensive piece of work.

If you care about the housing crisis, this thread 🧵 is for you!

1/

⤵️ I will review the data that stood out to me.

They did 5 separate surveys, 1 of tenants and the rest of landlords and lettings agents.

Survey by @AmarachResearch.

Links to all here. rtb.ie/news/the-rtb-p…

2/

"Q1" ended yesterday.

Did Ireland 🇮🇪 meet its vaccine targets?

Answer: Yes ✅ and No 😡, but it depends on which target you compare against, and when.

Let's have a look at the evolution of what truly can be called a "moving target".

[THREAD] 🧵

1/ There are 3 ways the Q1 target has been measured in public statements:

1) Doses "received" (delivered)
2) Doses "administered"
3) People vaccinated (first doses)

2/

"Satire is essential to democracy" is something no one disagrees with.

But picking a personal, petty and public feud with someone you satirise is completely different.

We have a proud history of satire in Ireland where this does *not* usually happen.

THREAD

1/

https://twitter.com/EOBroin/status/1256614160324050944

Satire in Ireland is around for decades. This is covered in length on a great RTÉ documentary from 1983.

It interviews the late Frank Kelly who traces the origins of satire back to the Ancient Greeks and Romans.

rte.ie/radio1/doconon…

2/

We got new modelling today about COVID-19 in Ireland.

It continues to show the R value falling below 1 *after* the March 28th lockdown.

I still question whether this is truly the case.

1/ The chart says it is based off an "analysis of confirmed cases by specimen collection date".

Translation = Based on the date a swab was taken.

2/

Deaths from healthcare workers is still 5, despite a rise in cases to 5,627.

That's only a death rate of 0.088% (tiny)

1/ Most healthcare workers are <65. If you compare 0.088% to the wider <65 population (0.52%), that's nearly SIX times lower.

It's not unreasonable to assume, therefore, that the virus is six times more widespread and six times less deadly.

2/

Lots of reaction to this thread. And yes, there is a wide range around all numbers.

My core point is that Ireland's R value didn't just plummet below 1 after the March 28th lockdown

Voluntary social distancing pushed it lower days before.

A few more points on that...

1/

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1254519476923641867

This is the HSE modelling on the R value. It shows the sudden drop on March 28th.

This is a pure policy analysis of the R value. It measures the NPHET/government actions.

It doesn't appear to factor in people's behaviour.

2/

THREAD

This article is a challenging read. I had a go at replicating its findings for Ireland to assess the effectiveness of the two lockdown stages in March.

I'm quite surprise by what I've found.

1/

thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/04/62572/ Ireland went into lockdown in two stages.

The "first measures" were on March 12th with school closures, social distancing and a ban on large gatherings.

2/

rte.ie/news/coronavir…

There are a few economic takes out there that warrant further inspection.

Private/public sector issues and deficit spending.

1/ The first is around the state becomming larger, and that it will stick.

Increases in the public sector as a % of GDP are usually gradual, or they've been there forever (I'm thinking France/Nordics).

But now the size of government will increase suddenly, without planning.

2/

There's a lot of scaremongering going around about nursing homes.

Claims that residents are being "left to die".

A few points on that...

1/ The first is that there clearly *are* issues. The purpose of this thread isn't to claim there isn't.

I know of one nursing home where families were only informed of an outbreak after they saw a Facebook post about a resident who died of COVID-19!!

2/

This is a reply from a Sinn Féín TD on Facebook to a comment about the @HSELive response to COVID-19.

It's worthy of an entire Masters dissertation, but for now a thread on what it means will have to suffice.

1/20 Let's start with the opening sentence.

When she says "ha trolls, nobody gas people" does she mean "do not gas people"?

or

"ha trolls nobody, gas people" as in "Louise trolls nobody" followed by "funny people"?

A right mystery from the start 😕

2/20

If Ireland 🇮🇪 is heading for its first "Grand Coalition", then we better have a look at how other countries have gone about it. #ge2020 #twip

Yes, I have a data table. 📊

And yes, this is a [thread]. 😎

Let's begin. 🏃‍♂️

1/ So the first thing that jumps out is that there is no "rotating Chancellor" or "rotating Prime Minister".

The party that holds the most seats gets to appoint the Head of Government. 🏆

That's true even when the government parties have near-equal seats in parliament.

2/