Formerly, global strategist. Currently, global macro speculator. @chicagobooth, CAIA. Millennial. Not investment advice.
Apr 1 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
When real consumer goods spending has driven 50% of GDP growth post-pandemic, we should expect the message from the yield curve, that peaked in April of 2021, to agree with that of consumer discretionary stocks. Markets have been pricing slowing growth for a year now. 1/x #SPX
That was evident in growth stocks leading following the peak in the yield curve in Apr. ‘21. But then in October, STIR futures began selling off as Fed turned aggressive as short-end BEI made new highs and the appeal of growth stocks faded, while defensive stocks shined. 2/x
Mar 17 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
(1/x) Consumer spending has been running significantly above trend. As this growth was driven by govt. transfers and a shutdown in services, it looks non-recurring and prone to mean-revert as the pandemic wanes. But what would that look like? #SPX#consumer
(2/x) Consumer expectations for year-ahead spending growth from the FRBNY’s Survey of Consumer Expectations seem a good prognosticator of realized goods spending growth. The two are highly-anticorrelated.