What’s your preference when it comes to risk?

Are you a risk-seeker, or are you risk-averse?

Have you always been?

Risk preferences are often described as like personality traits…

…idiosyncratically different between people, but largely stable over time.

Thread, 1/21 (In a rush? Here's a 1 min video version of this thread:
)youtube.com/shorts/_s6evl0…

The preprint is here osf.io/hwczr/

2/n We were concerned about the absence of confidence intervals that would tell us the plausible range of treatment effects, so we reanalysed the data using Bayesian statistics.

This also allowed us to directly to evaluate the strength of the evidence for the treatments. 3/n

What is ergodicity? ...and does it matter for human behavior?

In this paper we explain what it is,

why it constrains how people should make decisions when facing risk,

and we present (the first?) direct experimental evidence that it does matter. Here is the pre-print, loosely summarised below.

arxiv.org/pdf/1906.04652…

(do tell me if this was done before, or somehow predicted by Aristotle).