Yesterday, the Serbian President said the vital national interests of Serbia & Republika Srpska are under threat. He said Serbia will fight & win.

His message became viral and many people got scared thinking it’s a war provocation.

What’s going on there? 🧵 I follow the Balkans very closely and I’ll be blunt: I don’t know.

However, there are several theories circulating around especially in Russia and Serbia. Moscow is often using such situations to set informational conductions for more chaos.

This is what they say 1/

There has been a massive propaganda campaign against NATO for the past few days.

It’s time to give Putin a taste of his own medicine and fight back in the information space. How? 🧵 Background: this week marked the 25th anniversary of NATO’s intervention against Serbia in 1999 to halt the human rights abuses perpetrated against the ethnic Albanian population in Kosovo. At Russia’s request, UNSC plans to discuss NATO’s intervention. 2/

After the terrorist attack in Russia, the President of Serbia openly says that anti-Putin Russians who are in Serbia are a threat to 🇷🇸 security and they the Serbian government be merciless. New measures are on the horizon… 1/ 🧵

Serbian President had a national security council meeting right after the terrorist attack in Russia.

Now, they will go after Russian opposition in Serbia to completely silence them.

This is how Serbian and Russian intelligence cooperate 2/ ⤵️

Russia is setting informational conditions for more chaos in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo.

Today Putin met with Dodik and 🇷🇺 Telegram channel has accused Germany of preparing a war in Bosnia. Also, they accuse the UK of plotting war in Kosovo 🧵 1/ Usually, I write about the big picture re the Balkans and 🇷🇺 & 🇷🇸 strategy behind it. Today, I just want to share two disinfo from 🇷🇺 telegram channels that are telling 2/

As Serbs are protesting against manipulated elections and Vucic’s dictatorship, Russia’s propaganda is now gaslighting and undermining protests with the following narratives: THREAD (I’ll update it)🧵

P.S. I follow 🇷🇺 media, Telegram (which is important), VK, Instagram & blogs. The most common message on all platforms is that Serbia’s protests are a pretext for another color revolution and “the Serbian Maidan”. Russia already started this narrative a few months ago and 🇷🇺 Military Review announced it last week. 1/

I just watched Putin’s discussion related to the Balkans from this morning…

I firmly believe that a conflict just below the threshold of war will intensify next year in the region… so it doesn’t trigger foreign intervention but it’s powerful enough to undermine the West. 🧵 1/ I speak with foreign analysts and policymakers and many believe no conflict is possible. Well… Serbia and Russia don’t need to use conventional military tools with tanks and jets…because paramilitary groups will do the job. That’s what many in the West don’t understand 2/

Viktor Orban is in Washington to push for an end to 🇺🇸 military support for 🇺🇦.

His target audience? 🇺🇸 conservatives.

Dear fellow conservatives,

Orban is no conservative. He is an opportunist who is far from a model for American values.

Don’t fall for Orban’s game🧵 Orban is using culture wars to achieve his foreign policy objectives. He said that Hungary is the laboratory…with the antidote for progressive dominance.”

He has portrayed Hungary as a defender of “spiritual, moral and traditional values.” This is 🇷🇺intelligence playbook 2/

🚨 Russian ambassador to Serbia is dangerously warmongering & provoking Serbs to fight in Kosovo. The Kosovo situation is “on the last line”, beyond which a hot stage of confrontation is possible”.

The West should counter Russian information operations and humiliate 🇷🇺 How? 🧵 Instead of being outraged and send cheap & pathetic words related to maintaining peace in the Balkans, Western diplomats should put 🇷🇺 on defensive and think like the Kremlin and Serbs. They should remind Serbs that Russian brotherhood is nothing more than a myth. How? 2/

The situation in Kosovo has been escalating for months and 🇷🇸 and 🇷🇺 have been setting informational conditions for today’s events. Nothing new. This will be a 🧵for more information. First, to give you some background please read my warnings here. 1/
foreignaffairs.com/articles/russi… I will write a separate analysis of the situation to put everything in the context but ill use this 🧵 mostly to share local news from russia and Serbia to understand how they create informational conditions for this crisis and where this might go. 2/