The most significant successes of my business career were completely outside of the *rules* learned in business school. Also, answers or direction most likely cannot be taught as solutions are invented on the spot. 1/ Flashback to importing masks fr China at the onset of the pandemic. People were going into Chinese factories LITERALLY with suitcases with cash to jump the order priority. We had representatives sleeping in the factories 24/7 to maintain our priority. School didn't teach that. 2/

1/ I did not know what a bucket shop was until I read last year, "Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator" a really good 1923 book. Here is a link: thriftbooks.com/w/reminiscence… 2/ But here is an overview of what a bucket shop was (is) from Investopedia: "Historically, the term was used to refer to firms that allowed their customers to gamble on stock prices, often using dangerously high levels of leverage."

Evidenced based decision making in business: Entrepreneurs act WELL BEFORE there is data or evidence. If you wait for the data, you will more likely be late. But even the notion of evidence is different for entrepreneurs. 1/ In law, there is eyewitness evidence and forensic evidence. Both are used and abused. But in new businesses, "hard" forensic evidence or data takes a back seat to "soft" evidence. 2/

What are the basics of Exchange Economics? How do they make money? This is a short guide. If you read this thread, you REALLY should consider getting your Bitcoin off exchanges. FYI 99% of other shitcoins will be going to zero on or off exchange, so do whatever you want w/ 'em 1/ A) Exchanges charge a % of the transaction buying or selling.
B) Exchanges trade against clients. You put a buy limit order, they buy & sell to you and make the difference. You put a sell order at X, they make $ the other way
c) Exchanges lend out BTC, charge interest. 2/

What is a "full reserve exchange"? This is supposed to mean that they hold your assets and do not touch them. In theory, you should never have a problem withdrawing assets from "full reserve exchanges". Just because an exchange SAYS they are a full reserve exchange 1/ (as opposed to a fractional reserve exchange), it does not mean that they are IN FACT holding 1:1 . The tell tale sign of fuckery is DELAYING WITHDRAWALS. This usually precedes HALTING WITHDRAWALS due to not enough cash or BTC (or other crypto) to meet withdrawal demand. 2/

Those longtime readers of my tweets, I have used the refrain, Own Your Own Media. I discovered that few people really understand what media is. So a couple of months ago, reframed the mantra to "Own Your Own Data". Marketers understood this better.1/ On one of our companies' websites, I had the language changed to reflect the reframe. I felt distinctly stupid for not realizing this sooner. I would have iterated much sooner had I been selling, but I moved from selling to educating. 2/

How did slave holders keep the slaves in line? They would take the biggest slave, tie him to a tree and bring all the other slaves around to see. He would be whipped...and beaten... to an inch of his life to be an example. 1/ How did Middle East colonies stay in line? Whether U.S., England or France, a specific country (like Iraq) would be brutalized like a slave tied to the tree. This way, the other countries would *get the message". 2/

Friends, I am home from the hospital. Twitter can be toxic or filled with love & affection. I am overwhelmed by the prayers and well wishes and extremely humbled by them. What follows is this health episode outlined for it sure feels like a God wink as a Blessing. 1/ I went in Saturday for a routine MRI to monitor the size of a cyst on my pancreas (has not grown in 2 years). The technician happened to scan my heart and teh radiologist called my DR and said there was a heart irregularity that looked like a blood clot in my heart. 2/

My worldview concerning Saudi Arabia... Ever since the first king post WW I, the kingdom was a vassal state to those that created the monarchy. First the UK and then the U.S. Directionally, they obeyed the powers that guaranteed its existence. 1/ Of course there are divergences of interests, but when it is crunch time, U.S. interests MOST of the times will assert itself. Even the 1973 *oil embargo* was "allowed" to be levied for fear that the kingdom could be overthrown and it took > 2 wks from start of war to begin. 2/

There seems to be a bit of confusion in another thread about mass surveillance. I think it is a mistake to conflate the idea of mass surveillance with its effectiveness. The same can be said with corporate surveillance. BTW, this was one of the topics of my lecture Monday.1/ There are AI and data quants that lack humility to the limits of what data collection and processing can deliver. I referred the class to read Hayek's 1974 Nobel acceptance speech which was titled, "The Limits of Knowledge". 2/

Masters maintained their control over slaves thru getting the house slaves to support the enterprise. Oligarchs do something similar and maintain influence by getting ENOUGH plebs to defend the status quo vigorously. 1/ Tom Sawyer in Mark Twains novel *tricked* the folks into painting his fence. Oligarchs *trick* the plebs into supporting the Oligarchy. The plebs will not just willingly paint Oligarch's fence, they do so with great enthusiasm. 2/

I have spent a great amount of time trying to understand the *essence* of entrepreneurship. This was part of what drew me to Nassim's "Incerto". The "absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence" is one key. 1/ But there is more. What constitutes "evidence" is different. Way before there is data or scientific *evidence* (whether on UFOs, media, pandemics, or innovations like BTC), entrepreneurs "see" things. 2/

The notion that governments influence/control media is not a conspiracy. In order to survive, Oligarchs MUST CONTROL THE COMMONS. Real world experience. On 8/31/1997 Princess Diana died. The next day, our company decided to do an infomercial selling a video biography. 1/ Problem? No home video company had one so I called my uncle and asked if he could have ABC News produce one. At the time, ABC News had a deal w/ the BBC. Within a week, the BBC said they would rush to produce one. 2/

My father-in-law taught me Gresham's Law. He was a simple man with a H.S. degree, worked as a janitor most of his life. Not only did he not formally know Gresham's Law, I doubt he could spell it (said affectionately). But he demonstrated a keen understanding of it. How? 1/ Before 1965, all quarter coins in the U.S. were made of 90% silver. From 1965 on, quarters were made of a mixture of cheaper nickel and copper. Both the pre-1965 silver quarters and post copper & nickel ones were both *worth* 25 cents in circulation. 2/

I know first hand that ABC News purposely would not have Noam Chomsky on Nightline. Whether *left* (real left) of *right*, media seeks to narrow the narrative margins that challenge prevailing myths & narratives. In other words, limiting dissent is the goal. 1/ Social media is now where the eyeballs are and top down decisions aided by algorithms limit the commons. Our friend Pietro is already algorithmically handcuffed with "deboosting". That is Twitter's term for limiting who sees his replies which counter prevailing narratives. 2/

Supply chain problems usually work themselves out rather quickly. The REAL PROBLEM occurs when there is a DEMAND PROBLEM. Supply side folks generally miss this because they think supply is everything. This is such a common problem. 1/ Curing supply chain problems *can* affect demand but this is only one vector. The REASON forecasting is so difficult is BECAUSE future demand is not reducible to formula. BTW, the discounted cash flow wonks are manifestly delusional as the real world destroys their models. 2/

The ability to adapt to a changing landscape is THE #1 attribute of successful entrepreneurs. Kevin O'Leary gets it :-) Also, the successful entrepreneur will FEEL the need for pivoting before the evidence shows up on a spreadsheet.

Friends, I firmly believe in the power of knowledge, but spend more time trying to understand the limits and use of knowledge that leads us astray. This is one reason I attended RWRI 5X (I am a slow learner).

Over the years, I became aware that entrepreneurs like myself 1/ make decisions differently than reductionists. Innovation and/or novelty does not give way to models and math. AI, data nerds and reducing a landscape to mathematical equations is hampering the intuitive spark that lies at the essence of the entrepreneurial spirit. 2/

Currencies benefit from the Network Effect, Money does not necessarily do so. Bitcoiners and many pundits in the industry are confused because so many still believe that BTC is a good currency. It is NOT and WILL NOT become a good currency (Lightning Network not applicable) 1/ BTC might become "money" if it emerges as a store of value. That status is unresolved until a critical mass of people decide and act as if the digital property can store value. Its volatility seems to be cooked into the asset due to speculation, but directionally, it might 2/

Let's talk about the real world and Bitcoin. Both no-coiners and BTC maxis will not like this thread.

Central banksters are powerful oligarchs. Include the IMF and World Bank in this group. Combined, they control all global currencies. 1/ Lesson #1: They WILL NOT RELINQUISH control of currency willingly. BTC maxis may dream of BTC replacing national and global currencies but fughhetaboutit. Absent a violent global revolution, not gonna happen. 2/

When there is a new industry or asset class, it is normal to look at it with a prism of past, analogous comps. When the Home Video industry emerged, people used music, magazines or books to understand the new industry. 1/ Eventually the home video industry developed its own prism and separated from analogous industries. I was a home video *native* and was part of its beginning. When the Internet emerged, analogous comparisons of telephony and telegraphy were used to understand it. 2/