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jake hofman Profile picture
jake hofman
@jakehofman
senior principal researcher at msr nyc, adjunct professor at columbia
Aug 9, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Excited to announce a new paper in PNAS today!

An illusion of predictability in scientific results: Even experts confuse inferential uncertainty and outcome variability



Joint w/ great coauthors @_szhang, @P_Heck, @MichelleNMeyer, @cfchabris & @dggoldstpnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn… The TL;DR is that one of the most common ways we communicate scientific findings can lead people to drastically overestimate the size and importance of those findings. But there's an easy fix. Read on for more.