Reform UK have had a genuinely seismic showing in the local elections; a 10-point vote lead is far beyond anyone expected. It is not just a protest party anymore and could completely reshape politics. There are, I think, now broadly 3 possible paths for the years ahead 🧵 1⃣ The status quo continues: Reform and the Tories continue to poll (in Westminster voting intention) c.25%. Because there are few genuine 3-way marginals due to demographics, Labour benefits - winning elections on low vote shares. I think this is still the most likely outcome.

NEW @JLPartnersPolls of the Red Wall for @Channel4News.

On current numbers, the Conservatives would lose all of their seats in the Red Wall.

BUT – Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings are surging. What's going on? Deep dive thread… (1/18) First on voting intention. It’s a dire picture for the Tories.

Labour are on 53% and the Conservatives are on 28%, a 25-point lead for Labour compared to a 9 point lead for the Tories in 2019.

Labour lead with every age group apart from those over 66. (2/18)

New @IpsosUK figures (fieldwork post-immigration announcement):

Who do you trust most to make it harder to enter the country illegally?
Conservatives: 40% (+10)
Labour: 31% (-)

Amongst 2019 Conservatives:
Conservatives: 56% (+19)
Labour: 40% (-19)

(1/4) Who do you trust most to have the right immigration policies?
Conservatives: 36% (+8)
Labour: 35% (-1)

Amongst 2019 Conservatives:
Conservatives: 61% (+24)
Labour: 34% (-24)

(2/4)

NEW: @JLPartnersPolls survey of the general public, conducted yesterday and this morning.

Asked to choose between potential Tory candidates and Keir Starmer, Starmer leads all of them apart from Rishi Sunak. (1/4) Full figures here. People will tune in more now the contest gets underway and minds may change, but this is the starting position.

Note that the levels of Don't Knows do not vary as much as one might expect, all within the range of 25%-34%. (2/4)

NEW @JLPartnersPolls in today’s @thesun

We asked a nationally representative sample of 2,000 people what they think about Keir Starmer.

Of all responses, 50% were negative, 24% neutral, 26% positive. The words most commonly used are below. More analysis in the piece by @kateferguson4

Voters don’t feel Starmer has a vision for the future - but they are so bored by him in focus groups that they struggle to get animated by negative stories about the Labour leader (like beergate) either.

thesun.co.uk/news/18865184/…

NEW: @timesradio focus group with people who voted Conservative for the first time in 2019 in Wakefield - with @kekstcnc.

Ahead of the by-election, disaffection, discontent and distrust are the words that sum their views up.

Quick thread (warning: it's not a cheery one) (1/12) Firstly in the immediate wake of the confidence vote in Boris Johnson, "disappointed" was the word every voter used.

All but one thought Johnson should now resign, with anger still there on partygate. Here are the words of Mandy (voted Conservative 2019) 2

NEW @JLPartnersPolls in @thesundaytimes with @ShippersUnbound

Labour have a 20-point lead over the Conservatives in the Red Wall seat of Wakefield, ahead of the by-election later this month

The main reason given for voting Labour is Boris Johnson

Thread on the details. (1/10) First, here’s the state of play.

Labour are on 48%, up 8 points on 2019. The Conservatives are on 28%, down 19 points. (2/10)

New: What’s happening in Tory heartlands in the South? We ran a @kekstcnc @timesradio focus group of swing voters in Tiverton & Honiton who voted Conservative in 2019.

None would vote Tory in the upcoming by-election, and all bar one said they will vote for the Lib Dems. (1/12) These voters – pro-Brexit Conservatives – feel extremely disappointed in the government with their frustrations led by Boris Johnson, lies over partygate, and a feeling that things promised have not been delivered.
Here is what they said about the Conservative leader. (2/12)

NEW @JLPartnersPolls in today’s @thetimes

We asked a nationally representative sample of the British public what they think about Boris Johnson.

Of all 2,000 responses, 72% were negative, with 16% positive. The words most commonly used are in the image below. (1/13) Some of the negatives (72% of total):

“He was the right person to get Brexit done but now he needs to go, He is a liar and has broken the law we need a change.”

“I used to think he was ok but now he should resign after the breach of lockdown.”

“Liar and untrustworthy”

(2)

We (@JLPartnersPolls) asked 2,000 British people how they felt about Putin, in a representative poll this week.

It's like nothing we've seen before:

"Evil beyond belief"
"A child murdering war criminal"
"Absolute disgrace, he needs to be taken down"
"Sub-human scum"

1/5 "The reincarnation of Hitler"
"Gross little man"
"Murderer, must be taken out"
"A nasty **** who should be compared to Adolf Hitler"
"Unstable, misguided, dangerous"
"An extreme case of small man syndrome"
"Nutty as a fruitcake"
"He's a bell end"

2/5

J.L. Partners (@JLPartnersPolls) have a new poll and MrP model out in this week's @thesundaytimes.

It shows wipe-out for the Conservatives, with Labour projected to win a majority of 14 & the Tories falling to levels of support last seen in 2005.

thetimes.co.uk/article/half-t… (1/16) Important point: this is based on a 4,500 sample poll during partygate at the end of last month. For Labour, it is at the upper end of what was being shown in polls at the time. Some polls have tightened since then.

But others haven't. And the focus groups... (2)

The big winner from today is, once again, Keir Starmer. Unless MPs seek a resolution, he will face Boris’ Tories in May: racked by constant division, investigated by the police, with a leader who the public now despise and have already decided broke the rules. 1/4 Every % of Tory recovery in the polls will be jumped on as proof of people ‘moving on’. But the damage to how voters view Boris - on trust, competence, delivery - is done. Mention him in focus groups now and it prompts anger but also laughter and derision. The latter will stay. 2

NEW @JLPartnersPolls for @Channel4News: the Conservatives face wipe-out in the Red Wall.

Labour now lead by 11 points, with 48% to the Tories’ 37%.

If repeated at an Election, the Tories would lose all but 3 of their 45 Red Wall seats. (1/17) We polled a representative sample on gender, age, education, social grade, 2019 vote and 2016 vote, in 45 seats in the North/Midlands that the Tories won from Labour at the Election.

It is the worst Conservative poll rating in the Red Wall since this polling began. (2)

In some of our focus groups this week, I asked voters about Boris Johnson.

First, people who voted Conservative for the first time in 2019, in the 'Red Wall' seat of Bolton North East:

“He’s a coward.” (1/18) “I quite liked him at the beginning. I felt confidence during the pandemic, and that he was doing the best for all of us. Now, it’s like, we’ve been made a fool of.”

“He seemed like a bit of a character. I thought give him a chance. But it’s definitely changed my opinion.” (2)

New Covid polling by @kekstcnc in @thesundaytimes - all fieldwork after the PM’s press conference.

Despite the spread of omicron, the public remain opposed to pub/restaurant closures, any ban on Christmas mixing - and are split on rule of six. thetimes.co.uk/article/how-ba… (1/6) People have become slightly more likely to want the government to prioritise curbing Covid over protecting the economy since November, but the gap remains much smaller than during the rest of the pandemic. (2/6)

On @LBC in 10 mins talking about one of the biggest by-election moments ever with @NickFerrariLBC. Could be a busy day this… On @TimesRadio at 11 with @MattChorley

Until there is a credible alternative to the Conservatives, people will not abandon Boris Johnson in droves.

New @JLPartnersPolls in today’s @DailyMailUK:

- Tories lead by 6 points on competence, no change since July

- Labour ahead by only 2 points on ‘shares your values’

(1) - Labour seen as more divided by 32 points, up 6 since July

- Who is doing better job overall at the moment? Boris 41%, Keir 27%

- Tories seen as more out of touch than Labour by 15 points, but no change since July

- Awareness of scandal much lower than Barnard Castle

(2/3)

NEW @KekstCNC Covid polling in @thesundaytimes

Covid attitudes have shifted.

The number of people who want the government to limit the spread of the virus at all costs has fallen, while protecting the economy (even if it means more virus) has become more prominent. (1/5) In April 2020, protecting the economy - even if it meant more hospitalisations and deaths - was a very niche, near-heretical opinion.

Now, with the vaccine rollout and the cost of living biting, the gap between the two priorities has fallen from 61 points to just 8. (2/5)

*NEW: @JLPartnersPolls on why people voted the way they did, for @Channel4News*

The top reason given for not voting Labour on Thursday was Keir Starmer’s leadership. This was followed by not agreeing with Labour’s policies, or worrying that they did not have any at all. (1/9) A representative sample of 1,741 adults in England were asked just before & on Polling Day the main reason they voted.

Asked why they did not vote Labour, the top words written were “policies”, “Starmer”, “leader” and people saying they “don’t trust” the party. (2/9)

NEW @JLPartnersPolls for @Channel4News: Red Wall tracker

The Conservatives have re-taken the lead in the Red Wall, now just 1 point off their 2019 vote.

The main reason given for not voting Labour is “It is unclear what Keir Starmer stands for”. (1/15) As before, we polled a representative sample of voters on gender, age, education, social grade, 2019 and 2016 vote in 45 seats in the North/Midlands that the Tories won from Labour in 2019.

The 6-point advantage Labour had in November has changed into a 4-point Tory lead. (2/15)

NEW @JLPartnersPolls for @Channel4News: the 1st poll of the Red Wall since the Election

In 2019 the Tories led by 48% to 39%. Now Labour leads by 47% to 41%

On a uniform swing, that means the Conservatives would lose 36 of the 45 seats we polled (1/11)

channel4.com/news/exclusive… We polled a representative sample-on gender, age, education, social grade, 2019 vote and 2016 vote-in 45 seats in the North/Midlands that the Tories won from Labour at the Election.

It shows that, a year on, there are signs the Red Wall is going cold on the Conservatives. (2/11)