reformed hedge-fund manager + ex-@yale hockey | cfa + @cornell fintech | #btc | 🧠The Informationist Newsletter, 14K+ subs: https://t.co/GzW9VkXlgk
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Mar 21 • 41 tweets • 8 min read
Another Fed Meeting, another decision based on flawed metrics. One of them is the new CPI. Or shall I say the *New New CPI*?
Because the calculation has been sneakily adjusted again recently, and yes, it matters. Why and how?
Time for an inflation 🧵👇
🧐 Current CPI
First, for those who are new to the whole Fed Shell Game, or if you need a little refresher, a quick review of CPI:
The Consumer Price Index, also known as CPI, is the benchmark for U.S. inflation as calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the BLS).
Mar 15 • 41 tweets • 9 min read
With the 'sudden' onset of bank insolvency and credit risk, it seems a good time to peek at the US Treasury’s *own* financial position.
Take its debt temperature, so to speak. This is a long but really important one, so saddle up and settle in.
It's time for debt 🧵👇
🥸 What’s the CBO report?
First off, CBO stands for Congressional Budget Office, the federal agency that semi-regularly provides budget information and economic forecasts to Congress
And the CBO recently published its federal budget projections for the next 10 years.
Mar 7 • 35 tweets • 7 min read
As you may have heard recently, Credit Suisse is in trouble. Deep Trouble.
Question is, can they—*will they*—seize customer deposits to pay off creditors in a bankruptcy restructuring?
Time for a Bankruptcy 🧵👇
🤑 Bail-outs
If you’re in your 20’s or older, you likely remember the Great Financial Crisis
You know, that event in 2008 to 2010 that pushed major banks to the edge of catastrophic-level collapse because of poor—or non-existent—risk management policies?
Feb 21 • 40 tweets • 8 min read
US CDS spreads have rocketed higher recently, suggesting an accelerating probability of default.
But why is this happening, and what exactly is the CDS market telling us?
Time for a Credit 🧵👇
🧐 What’s a CDS?
First things first, what exactly is a CDS, or Credit Default Swap?
If you subscribe to 🧠The Informationist, you’ve heard me discuss CDSs before
Wall Street loves leveraged buyouts. So much so, that a mountain of 'hung' LBO debt now threatens to blow up right in their face.
But what is an LBO and how are they hung?
Time for a debt 🧵👇
You may remember the term leveraged buyout or LBO from the good ol' Gordon Gecko days of 1980’s Wall Street
If not, or if you’re wondering how those go-go days matter today, let’s take a few minutes to walk through it all nice and easy.
Jan 16 • 41 tweets • 10 min read
The endless scrolling Debt Clock.
What is it, and what exactly do all the numbers tell us?
Time for a Debt 🧵👇
⏰ What is the Debt Clock?
Some of you are old enough to remember back in 1989, when real estate investor Seymour Durst had this version of the debt clock installed on 42nd Street and Sixth Avenue in New York City
Dec 23, 2022 • 27 tweets • 6 min read
US Treasury yield curves are inverted--really inverted--right now.
But what exactly does that mean, and more importantly, does it truly signal an incoming recession?
Time for a Treasury 🧵👇
👐 What is an inverted yield curve?
We’ve talked about yield curves on 🧠The Informationist before
If so, how will Fed monetary tightening affect prices in the near future?
Time for a money 🧵👇
🤏 What is Narrow Money?
To understand money and supply, we first need to understand the different types of money and their definitions
We'll focus on US definitions and USD money supply for today.
Nov 28, 2022 • 33 tweets • 7 min read
Can Merkle Trees prove that your #Bitcoin is safe on an exchange?
Are they fool (or crook, in recent cases) proof as a method to verify your balances?
Excellent questions that need answers ASAP.
Time for a collateral 🧵👇
#️⃣ What is a Hash?
I’m no coder, and I don’t expect you are either
So, let’s walk through this nice and easy today
Get you a bit smarter on the collateral side of the decentralized world, shall we?
Nov 14, 2022 • 31 tweets • 6 min read
The latest FASB ruling will be a pretty big deal for #Bitcoin.
But what’s FASB, and why should you care?
Time for a Corporate Treasury 🧵👇
Accounting is boring. FASB bleh. 🤮
Normally, yes. But not this time. The latest FASB vote opens the door for companies to buy and hold Bitcoin in corporate treasuries without balance sheet penalties
OK, how?
Let's walk through it nice and easy, shall we?
Oct 31, 2022 • 34 tweets • 8 min read
With interest rates rising globally, many companies and countries are at risk of becoming zombies, and even the G7 is starting to look pretty spooky.
👻 Happy Halloween, everyone, you may want to peek through your fingers while reading this one.
It's time for a scary debt 🧵👇
💀 What’s a Financial Zombie?
First, a little slang explanation
Zombie companies are ones earning enough money to make interest payments and keep operating, but not enough to pay off their debt
So, they must keep borrowing more and more to cover expenses and continue operating
Oct 27, 2022 • 34 tweets • 6 min read
Liability Driven Investments or LDIs for short.
What are they, and how did they almost take down the entire UK pension fund system?
Time for a debt 🧵👇
🤑 Pension funds
First, a pension fund or scheme, as known in the UK, is an investment vehicle that pays income to members upon retirement
The total amount to be paid is set up as a long series of future payments
Put simply, these future payments are liabilities to the fund
Oct 20, 2022 • 29 tweets • 7 min read
Is the US Treasury market getting disorderly?
And what can the Fed or Treasury do to prevent a total bond meltdown?
Time for a Treasury 🧵👇
🤒 Treasury Market Temperature
First, let’s have a peek at how the US Treasury market is acting recently, you know, take its temperature
There’re a few things we look at when determining the health of the Treasury market, one of them being the overall demand of USTs globally.
Oct 14, 2022 • 25 tweets • 6 min read
As the USD continues to dominate global currencies and cause pain abroad, there’s increasing speculation of a Plaza Accord 2.0.
But what was the first Plaza Accord, and is this time different?
Time for an FX thread👇
🤝 The original Plaza Accord
The Plaza Accord was an agreement in September, 1985 between the UK, West Germany, France, Japan, and US to depreciate the USD versus all those currencies
It was named the Plaza Accord, as the agreement was signed in the famous Plaza Hotel in NYC.
Oct 4, 2022 • 38 tweets • 8 min read
Treasury auctions can give us clues to the health or problems of the entire US financial system.
But what are those clues and how can you tell?
Time for a Treasury 🧵👇
👋 Auction Terminology
First, this is about auctions by the US Treasury, selling bonds to finance US public debt
They have various maturities and names
Let's walk through them...
Sep 29, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I repeat. Ignore the talking heads and look at CDS spreads instead.
Getting lots of questions about Credit Default Swaps, and so here's an early article from 🧠The Informationist Newsletter I wrote about CDS spreads.