This is a side of me I don’t usually share publicly: my investment thesis based on my vision of the future. Because investing is exactly that: a bet that we’ll be able to guess the future.
Go grab a coffee, ‘cause this one’s gonna be long. It’s been a while since I put this much effort into a thread:
1. 🔮 My predictions.
• AI and everything that supports it (GPUs, datacenters, etc) will keep growing exponentially and steadily over the coming years, impacting every field of human knowledge.
• In the near future, every work process that happens in front of a computer will be affected by AI (if not completely swept away). And soon after that, every process that happens away from a computer too, thanks to robotics. And when AI and robotics converge, we’re in for some very interesting times (hopefully not terrifying).
• Pay close attention to what I’m about to say, it might blow your mind: I believe software (and a big chunk of audiovisual entertainment) will become a commodity, like electricity. Which means all the digital tech value will be concentrated in just a few companies: those who win today’s multimodal LLM race and those who provide the infrastructure they run on. You might understand this better if you imagine a world where you can just say: “I want a SaaS like this site” or “make me a movie in this style with my dog as the main character” and an LLM creates it on the spot, with a quality far beyond today’s best productions. Basically, I believe all logic and visual layers will be run on advanced LLMs we can barely imagine today. So, building apps/webs/entertainment the way we do now will stop making sense, and the ability to do so will be concentrated in companies with the best LLMs and the compute power to run them at scale. We’ll choose between “AI providers” based purely on price, and not so much on features/capabilities (just like we do today with electricity companies; or like PS vs Xbox if they get some exclusive IPs that make a difference).
2. 💰 My general investment thesis.
• There will be investment opportunities in everything that drives this paradigm shift (AI itself), but also in things that will still exist with or without AI (like food, real estate, or tourism (though I won’t cover these here, even if they’re still interesting and I might invest in them outside the stock market).
• As for AI, I’ll invest in both the “gold hunters” 🥇 (the companies in the race to build the foundation models) and the ones selling picks and shovels ⛏️ (the companies building the hardware and infrastructure that make AI possible).
• Trying to “time the market” to find the perfect entry point is impossible. But there are some strong signs that the market is currently overvalued (see attached screenshot, data from CurrentMarketValuation).
• Concentrating your investment increases potential return, but also the risk. And vice versa.
3. 💸 My specific investment thesis.
• I want very high concentration in AI companies and everything that supports it, both in pre-IPO and in public markets.
• I think not only the US, but also China, will play a huge role in AI’s future. I have less faith in my dear Europe, because of its obsessive regulatory spiral and its ink-stained bureaucrats. Yes, I believe the US and China will devour the AI pie. But with China I sadly assume regulatory risks, so I won’t go above 10%-20% exposure in my portfolio.
• I don’t want to go all in at once in case the market is, in fact, overvalued: so I’ll be investing through monthly/quarterly contributions (TBD) over the next 5-6 years. In other words, I’ll avoid Lump Sum and follow a DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) strategy. This also lets me easily tweak the strategy later through future contributions if my portfolio drifts off course. Detail: historically, Lump Sum performs better... except when you hit the market at its peak. And since all signs point to us being maybe too high right now, I don’t want to risk it.
• But I don’t do trading. I actually DON’T believe in trading. Over 90% of active traders underperform the market in the long run. Even professional fund managers can’t consistently beat a simple index like the S&P 500 or MSCI World. So my plan is to build the portfolio over time, according to the weights in the screenshot, and never sell (unless I ever really need the cash). If anything, if I see the market drop hard, I’ll “buy the dip” and invest 2x or 3x the regular amount to take advantage of the discounts.
• Related to the above: author funds and picking individual stocks usually perform worse on average than simply indexing. So I want at least 70% of my portfolio to be indexed. But I’ll trust my own judgment and pick a few individual ones (30% of the portfolio). Again, I’m not planning to buy and sell often, just enter regularly over time.
• TER (fees) of funds and ETFs are super important and should be studied carefully. If not, they’ll eat you alive long-term. I’ve looked for the best products that match my thesis, but also the cheapest ones.
• I prefer accumulation over distribution for tax efficiency (I want at least 75% of my portfolio in accumulation stocks/ETFs). Long live compound interest!
• In Spain, moving between funds doesn’t trigger taxes (until you sell). The only downside is that fees are several points higher. But I want to keep at least a portion in funds so I can move things around easily and tax-free if needed.
• I think some of the best opportunities aren’t in public markets, but in pre-IPOs. I’ve managed to get into OpenAI, xAI, SpaceX, Freepik and Canva. I’d love to get into Anthropic, Inflection AI, Cohere, Hugging Face, Cerebras and Midjourney if I ever get the chance. If the stock market is already risky, the barrier to entry and risk for pre-IPOs or startups is way higher.
4. 🤯 Key risks to keep in mind.
• If you run this investment thesis through Gemini, Grok or ChatGPT’s deep research mode, their heads will explode 😂 (yep, I’ve tried them all, of course, I actually built this AI-focused portfolio partly using AI). Any LLM will lose its mind over the extreme AI concentration in this portfolio. If you concentrate, you increase risk but also potential return. If you diversify, you reduce risk but also reduce returns. I chose the former and I’m okay with the risks.
• “IE00BLRPRL42 (similar to TQQQ but accumulation)”: not for the faint of heart. It’s leveraged 3x, can go up fast... but also vanish at the speed of light.
• Cathie Wood’s ARKs are risky by nature. “Author ETFs” tend to underperform index funds, so they’re a risky bet on extreme concentration.
• KSTR is a Chinese AI companies ETF. Many are opaque, government-dependent, and vulnerable to sanctions or bans.
• The fact that I chose to enter gradually (DCA) means I’ll need to stay alert and rebalance in the future, sell duds before they crash and keep an eye especially on author ETFs and individual stocks. No one wants a 3dfx or a BlackBerry in their future portfolio... but it’s sooo easy to end up with one!
5. 🦄 Disclaimer: this is *definitely* not investment advice.
These are just my personal predictions about the future (which I might totally get wrong, because predicting the future is nearly impossible) and my investment thesis based on those predictions, which I decided to share. You’d be nuts to take this as investment advice. Everyone should make their own decisions.
So... how’s your brain doing after all that? Can’t wait to hear your thoughts!
Link to my portfolio:
Just reply with your own image of the next frame you imagine.
I’ll be selecting the images and adding them to the thread so you’ll know what’s “canonical story”.
Finally, I’ll interpolate all the frames into a full video. Let’s see where this goes!
Style: "Retro tech-noir anime, like Akira, Ghost in the Shell, or Cyber City Oedo 808: cool tones and neon lights, strong shadows, intense expressions, and a futuristic, dark, and dramatic atmosphere."
Feb 27 • 24 tweets • 12 min read
IT'S FINALLY HERE!
🔥 Mystic Structure Reference! 🔥
Generate any image controlling structural integrity ✨ Infinite use cases! Films, 3D, video games, art, interiors, architecture... From cartoon to real, the opposite, or ANYTHING in between!
Details & 12 tutorials 🧵👇
Available NOW at Magnific 🪄 for all users! 👇
The VFX team of Here (directed by Robert Zemeckis and starring Robin Wright & Tom Hanks) used Magnific for their FX 🤯
To break it all down (+more), I interviewed VFX supervisor Kevin Baillie! 🧵👇
An incredibly exciting conversation where @kbvfx shares how he got started in the world of VFX, his career journey, what it’s been like working with directors like George Lucas and Robert Zemeckis, and the impact of generative AI in Hollywood plus much more!
Feb 14 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
🪄 Magnific.
From $0 to $10M ARR in just one year with only two people.
This was supposed to be a secret, but I think even my grandma knows by now.
Yep, small teams are the future.
I wasn’t sure whether to post it or not, but since X’s algorithm has me in the shadows, no one’s gonna see it anyway. 😆
Feb 3 • 29 tweets • 13 min read
🔴 A CONSCIOUS AI
Today, I’m going to talk about something we might be able to achieve, though maybe humanity should never even try:
A method for an AI to gain consciousness and reach the status of a superintelligence (ASI).
A theory I’ve been working on for months 🧵
Index – In case you want to jump straight to a section:
0️⃣ Introduction
1️⃣ The foundation of current AI models
2️⃣ What is consciousness?
3️⃣ How to create a self-aware AI?
4️⃣ Singularity / ASI
5️⃣ Moral implications
6️⃣ Risks
Dec 28, 2024 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
🍔💀 I'm NEVER eating a Whopper again.
This is just one of the many findings from Nat Friedman and his team during their testing of 100 everyday foods for the presence of plastic chemicals.
The study is brutal in every aspect, and the way it’s presented is masterful. 🧵👇
Here you have the full report and the story behind it:
I asked an AI to show me how Egyptian pyramids were built, and now I'm pretty sure I'll have nightmares for life 🤯
Breathtaking.
Oct 11, 2024 • 73 tweets • 22 min read
⚡ How create hyper realistic food photography with Generative AI in 4k resolution ready to print (4,736 x 3,520 px)
Remark: this is a very LONG thread with lot of prompts and details. Bookmark for later if you don't have time right now.
Step-by-step tutorial 🧵👇
This is tutorial 1/20 of the #mystic exploration series I'm planning to do in which I will cover the main categories of image generation that any professional might need. Follow me at @javilopen so you don’t miss them!
Sep 7, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
⚡ The best AI production I have ever seen. Insane level of quality achieved.
💡 TESLA by Alexandra Axell
And this is how I build my skills little by little.
I come up with a story, create photoshoot, animating it, then comes sound design and creating voice over, editing together, and upscaling.
7 different programs (thank you Midjourney, Magnific AI, Runway) that I didn't even know they can exist a few years ago. 🤯 couple days of work, and the automotive test is out.
I really hope @elonmusk will see this. Because it's amazing.
Sep 1, 2024 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
PART 2: Handed my vacation videos to an AI for auto editing, and now I'm pretty sure I'll have nightmares for life 🤯
Starred by @anacoding, Akira and myself! 💕
Jul 18, 2024 • 31 tweets • 10 min read
AI is transforming everyday life, but most don't know how to start using it.
I've spent months researching the best AI tools so you don't have to.
28 AI applications to make your life MUCH easier 🧵👇
To make your life easier, I have separated the tools into categories:
💬 AI Chatbots
🔧 Utils
🔊 Music / Sound
🖼️ Image / Photography
🎬 Video
🧊 3D
👨🏾💻 Programming
Jul 8, 2024 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
WE HAVE LISTENED TO YOU.
🔥 Magnific 🪄 plugin for Photoshop 🔥
We are launching one of the most requested features by professionals: the ability to use Magnific from within Photoshop!
LET'S GO! Step by step tutorial 🧵👇
1. Install the Magnific Plugin for Photoshop with just one click from the Adobe Store:
Runway released its new text-to-video AI Generator 48 hours ago.
I've spent hours testing the most advanced and craziest prompts to get the ultimate results so you don’t have to.
Here are ALL of them (+45 prompts) 🧵👇
a cinematic shot of an strange tree monster in small village of Spain with white houses
Jun 29, 2024 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
One of the most surprising and lesser-known aspects of World War II is how, with the collapse of supply lines, soldiers were forced to use unusual mounts for their movements.
Thread of unusual photographs 🧵
Jun 24, 2024 • 25 tweets • 11 min read
IT'S FINALLY HERE!
🔥 Magnific Relight 🔥
In the beginning, there was darkness, and then it was said, "let there be Relight"... And there was light ✨ Transform the lighting of a any scene using a prompt, a reference img or a lightmap!
Info + tutorials + a HUGE surprise 🧵👇
If you can't wait, here's the link to Magnific Relight (don't forget to come came back later to play with the mini tutorials and examples).