Joel Cawley Profile picture
Retired VP of Corporate Strategy at IBM. Now writing and consulting on the topics of business strategy, economics, and politics
Jul 13, 2023 23 tweets 4 min read
Chip wars: How ‘chiplets’ are emerging as a core part of China’s tech strategy | Reuters

1/ I’ve posted on this many times. I suspect it will be the decisive front deciding the future of the semi industry. US and China start on even footing.
reuters.com/technology/chi… 2/ Here’s a thread explaining why this is such a big deal.

Everyone has heard of Moores law and knows it’s been the technical underpinning of the amazing success of the semiconductor industry. Each node - 90nm, 28nm, 14nm etc - is faster, denser and cheaper for everything.
Mar 27, 2022 20 tweets 7 min read
1/ Long thread on Biden’s closing comment. I have a lot of experience negotiating complex deals in a business context. This is very different, but I do feel I’ve got some insights to offer. To be clear, I thought it was intentional, genuine, and could prove useful. 2/ It’s very important to note that Biden is not negotiating with Putin, Zelensky is. Biden’s role is in support of Zelensky and that context matters.
Aug 18, 2021 5 tweets 3 min read
1/ There’s a lot of disinformation floating around on what exactly was agreed in Doha. I’ve included a link to the full text, below. The more you read this, the more you realize how amazingly out of touch our current commentary has become.

state.gov/wp-content/upl… 2/ This document specifically spells out a mutual understanding that the Taliban will negotiate a settlement with the Afghan government, just as they did. Less, clear, but 100% tacitly implied throughout, is that the Taliban will be the new rulers.
Jul 13, 2020 7 tweets 6 min read
@PaulGambles2 @MartinSoong @cnbcSri 1/ I agree with the points in your thread and share the expressed intuitions. In this reply I want to set aside the fed/asset questions and just focus on the real economy.

Events like this tend to accelerate trends that already existed, so let’s highlight 3 of those: @PaulGambles2 @MartinSoong @cnbcSri 2/ a) Manufacturing employment both in absolute # as well as % of total workforce have been declining for decades. This trend may bounce a bit, but will accelerate. Even when sector output eventually goes up, jobs will decline.