🧵Next week, you will see people using something called Benford's Law to try to prove election fraud.
⛔️These people are wrong⛔️
I am a scientist who has published on Benford's Law. Let me tell you what it is and why what they are doing is mathematically incorrect. 1/ Consider the 1st digit of a number (e.g. the 3 in 386). In lots of systems, the frequency of 1st digits follows a specific pattern. 1s are way more common than 9s. There's a formula that predicts it. For a first digit N, the frequency is log (N+1)-log(N). This is Benford's Law

Today I read the NYT article about their latest poll, and was left totally astonished by this paragraph that says Trump is polling well because "he occupies the center". I wrote about this in today's MAGAReport here's a 🧵 tinyurl.com/the-maga-repor…
First, in the MIDDLE OF THIS PAGE is a link to an article about how Trump is going to prosecute his political enemies if he is elected to punish them. The irony of that being the filling of a sandwich about him being a centrist is blowing my mind

In today's MAGAReport, I talk about Bullshit Receptivity, an actual psychological term that measures exactly what you'd guess - how receptive people are to bullshit. It's a key factor in susceptibility to misinformation and conspiracy theory belief 🧵
tinyurl.com/the-maga-report A classic study looks at pseudo-profound bullshit. The authors randomly generated text with the New Age Bullshit Generator and asked subjects how profound those statements were. Higher ratings = higher Bullshit Receptivity

sebpearce.com/bullshit/
cambridge.org/core/journals/…

I monitor threats of violence on far-right / MAGA platforms. Here's my report from yesterday (you can get daily reports of what goes on there in my MAGAReport newsletter )

tl;dr: they are mad, have a lot of violent language, but no plans to do anythng 🧵ter.ps/z37 These communities love the idea of retribution against their perceived enemies, and in that fantasy, it is usually carried out by the (Trump-controlled) state with public executions, sometimes also torture. Here are some examples from last night calling for hangings

In today's MAGAReport (link in bio), I talk about the thing that occupies a lot of my thinking. There are whiffs of resignation that Trump may not be re-elected, but the community is primed for another violent conspiracy theory to harness their simmering rage 🧵 That feeling of resignation isn't because they think Trump will legitimately lose the election. They just think the corruption is so powerful that it may be stolen again. Still, if this holds, it makes it much less likely that we see any real violence in November, but...

Alex Jones released a new video game and I reviewed the trailer so you don't have to. 🧵
In the old skool video game-style game, YOU are AJ trying to "defeat the big tech cucks and more" There is a level where you have to kill gay frogs (this is a reference to an infamous AJ rant about "turning the frogs gay")

Why is software engineering male dominated?
There's a lot stopping women from getting into the field and tweets like this are scientifically proven to be one of those things.
A 🧵 1/

https://twitter.com/anthonyessaye/status/1593918223057145858

It's common to hear "women just don't like coding!" and that is, of course, bullshit.
Pro-tip: any time you say "The reason <traditionally marginalized group> is underrepresented in <high pay/prestige field> is because they just aren't interested in it!", you're wrong and biased

As the Twitter/Elon Musk trial progresses, let’s take a look at how to estimate the % of bots on Twitter with proper statistics! Is Twitter doing it right? Are they lying? (Note: I don’t have any special insight, so we’re going to operate on what’s been reported)
1/13-ish What % of active twitter accounts are bots? First, definitions:
Elon seem focused on spam bots, so we’ll go with that for "bot".
Twitter defines an account as active if they can show it an ad. No need to post/interact. Just scroll a bit. This seems reasonable 2/

Digital tracking and lack of US privacy protections puts all people at risk of bounty hunting anti-abortion zealots - even if you're not seeking an abortion (e.g. this thread

https://twitter.com/questauthority/status/1521497601316728837

)

A thread on how to protect yourself as much as possible. 1/ Your location is being tracked. Even if you turn off location services, your location can be tracked through wifi signals, the cell towers it connects to, and more. This isn't a "technically possible" thing - it's in practice right now. Your location is NEVER private. 2/

I've been putting off this thread on far-right / conspiracy theory updates because I'm so tired of it, but here we go!

So in terms of the September 18th rally planned at the Capitol to protest the arrest of 1/6 insurrectionists: this doesn't look like a big movement
1/ As has been the case with every proposed event since 1/6, there is major paranoia that it's a false flag run by the FBI / government to get people arrested and that ANTIFA will show up and make them look bad. From my sources, this isn't going to be a massive event
2/

Hello! I am a full professor at the Univ. of Maryland and chair of our college's committee on Appointments, Promotion, and Tenure. Let me give you a primer on how one receives tenure. There are some *very* bad takes out there right now 1/ These processes are very similar across almost all US universities, but you may find a small variation here or there. I'm sharing the way this works in the vast majority of cases 2/

Everyone is really struggling a year into COVID, but I wanted to share some thoughts on the specific struggles of being a professor right now 1/ My students are having such a hard time. Last week, I polled them about how they are holding up. Here are the results from my 2 classes. Scale is 1 (I am utterly drained and exhausted) to 5 (All things considered, I'm doing well)
2/

A few people have asked what's up this week with the pro-Trump and QAnon crowd, so I'm going to consolidate my answers here. The main things we're watching is (1) how worried we should be about March 4th and (1) what happens with the impeachment trial 1/

https://twitter.com/beckster305/status/1359111612490264578

March 4 was the original Inauguration Day in the constitution. Some QAnon types now believe that will be when Trump resumes the Presidency. They think the US became a corporation in 1871, owned by the City of London, & that the military is working to bring the Corporation down 2/

Good morning, everyone! There are still no big organized plans for action among the pro-Trump social medias today, 1/20/21. I'll keep monitoring for small threats. But mostly, I'm going to be live tweeting the meltdown of the QAnon conspiracy theory crowd. Join me! 1/ As a reminder, today is the last day that The Plan can be executed/The Storm can come. If you haven't been keeping up, that means it's the day the military steps in and arrests the Satan-worshiping cannibalistic pedovore int'l child sex-trafficking cabal in Congress & the media

Evening pro-Trump Social media update (1/19/21):
-Still no organized violence plans (good!)
-Much disappointment/anger for Trump after speech
-Plenty still holding out hope for QAnon Storm/Plan
-Shocking amount of talk about myPillow. Like A LOT

I don't know what's next, but… If I had to speculate tonight, I see 2 paths:
-Trump gets back on socials, holds rallies, over next few months, inspires them into violent frenzy. Expect attacks on media, prosecutors/states coming for him, "enemies"
OR
-Trump stays mostly quiet, base crumbles into disgruntlement

You guys...the MA GAs are maaaaaaaddddd about Trump's speech today 1/ I don't want to harp on it, but maybe you're interested in some of their feelings right now? 2/

Tuesday 1/19/21 check-in on Pro-Trump social media: tl;dr -still no plans for big organized violence leading up to Inauguration
-Today is National Popcorn Day which is the day QAnon supporters think The Storm (massive arrests) will happen
-I'm worried about what comes next
1/ Ok so the good news is that the paranoia continues to strengthen and there seems to be no plan for any organized action, protests, riots, demonstrations, or anything today or tomorrow. The consensus is to stay home. Horay good news! 2/

If you will indulge me a little more, I'd like to share another element of the conspiracy theories surrounding inauguration, because we're hearing a LOT about Trump becoming the *19th* president of the United States

(no threats of violence here)
1/ OK SO - this truly bizarre story says that in 1871, the US ceased to be a nation and instead became a corporation that belongs to the city of London (attn @SadiqKhan)
AND if you see an American flag with gold fringe, well that represents the corporation NOT the country 2/

Monday morning check-in on pro-Trump social media.
For those worried: the overall tone is increasingly one of resignation OR hope that some external forces will keep Trump in office. There is no organization of protests, rallies, or violence. This is good.

BUT… 1/ …the situation is very precarious. As I said on Friday, they are looking to Trump for guidance. He's been largely silent, which is good, but there is civil war-level anger among many supporters. If Trump were to call for it, I think many would take up arms 2/

Let's do a Friday afternoon check-in on what's going on in pro-Trump social media

One of the most dominant themes is paranoia. Anyone who talks about a rally, protest, march, or other action gets accused quickly of being part of the FBI/antifa/deep state 1/ That said, this is not quite right because… 2/

I am naturally an optimist! But I am primarily a scientist and I study how things spread through social networks. I am profoundly worried. I'll let epidemiologists can give you a good scientific warning, but I want to share how I am preparing for what's coming 1/ There were ~171,000 new cases / day this week. That alone is astonishing. And in 2 days, a lot of people are going to gather in big groups, maskless, indoors. This will be catastrophic. 2/