Alexey Navalny ist beerdigt. Ich habe hier diesen Tag einen Con(test) sowohl für den Kreml als auch für das, was an politischer Opposition in Russland übrig geblieben ist, genannt. War er das? Ein kurzer Thread: Mehrere Tausend Menschen kamen zu der Trauerfeier in einer Kirche in Moskau und marschierten dann die 2,5 km bis zum Friedhof. Spontane, selbstorganisierte Trauerfeiern gab es auch in andern Städten.

Auf Facebook erklärt @maximkireev, was der gegenwärtige hohe Rubelkurs (geht in Richtung Vorkrimkurs) bedeutet. In Kommentaren wird gefragt, ob das heiße, die Sanktionen seien nutzlos. Hier ein paar Anmerkungen dazu: /2

facebook.com/maxim.kireev/p… Die Geldpolitik ist nur ein Teil der Sanktionen und wohl nicht der Wichtigste. Die eingebrochenen Importe werden (auch) dazu führen, dass die Lager bald leer sein werden. Das wird teilweise durch graue (und damit teurere) Importe ausgeglichen werden können. /3

There are a lot of claims that Russians are "deporting" Ukrainians from occupied territory to Russia and that they are held there against their will, at least partly in camps or even "concentration camps". This claims inevitable revoke the memory of Ukrainians (and others) .../2 ... being deported under Stalin to Siberia and Central Asia. There are not many informations available that can be really checked. From all I understand, almost all Ukrainians in occupied territory are being registered by Russian (or DNR/LNR) authorities in .../3

Da dieser Beitrag von @CordSchmelzle hier schon oft und lobend geteilt wurde, muss ich nun, zugegebenermaßen ein wenig kleinlich, ein wenig kritisieren. Gleich zu Beginn kritisiert er, Russland/Putin sei nicht richtig verstanden worden ... /2
zeitung.faz.net/faz/geisteswis… ...und versteht dann selbst sofort Russland falsch. Bei der Kritik der "70 Jahre ohne Krieg" schreibt er Russland Syrien als Kriegserfahrung zu. Das wäre als würde Grenada zur Hauptkriegserfahrung der USA nach WWII erklärt. /3

There seems to developing a competition between two narratives about the role of chancellor Scholz regarding Germany's Russia limbo. In one he is part of the solution. while in the other he is part of the problem. /2 In the first narrative he trying to draw his party SPD, deep in the Russia shit, with him. He's trying to solve the problem in a sustainable way once and forever. That's why he's looking so undecided, rocking forth and back. /3

Almost since the Russian war against Ukraine began the two countries are in more or less constant negotiations how to end it. From the beginning on it was questionable, whether the Russian side really is interested in something other than a Ukrainian surrender. My guess is.../2 ...that not. At least not any more. The negotiations seem to be not more than a tactical instrument. In my view the Ukrainians have acknowledged this and, while gaining ground on the battle fields, have been switching to a predominant tactical approach as well. /3

Wie überlebt die russische Zivilgesellschaft in der Autokratie? Dieser Frage gehen @sabfis3 und ich in der @Osteuropa 8-9/2021 nach. Wichtigste Erkenntnis: Selbst unter autokratischen Bedingungen.../2
zeitschrift-osteuropa.de/hefte/2021/8-9… ...bestehen viele Menschen in Russland weiter auf ihrem Recht zur politischen Partizipation. Aber sie brauchen Mut und einen langen Atem.
Das politische Regime in Russland hat 2020/21 eine Schwelle überschritten. /3

A short story about Covid in Russian, the people and the state. A friend of mine was invited to a 50th birthday party of her cousin. About 30 family members + friends came to a separate hall in a restaurant. The birthday girl had invited a singer for entertainment./2 After her performance the singer confessed: Actually she's got a fever the evening before, but suppressed it with medicine, so that she could perform. Silence in the room. All guests tested the next days of Covid. Result: All with the exception of 3 tested positive./3

Apparently @novaya_gazeta made German former journalist, now one of the leading activists of the anti-vaxxer and, in general, anti-government movement, its Berlin based correspondent. I can only guess why. Reitschuster was once a correspondent for German media in Moscow. /2

https://twitter.com/FakeSchuster/status/1485719649077673985

Back then he claimed to be a "victim of the Putin regime" and that he had been attacked on the street, because of his close connections to oppositional politicians, especially to former chess world champion Garri #Kasparov. The Novaya Gazeta has a tradition pf hosting .../3

A complaint! Yesterday the Russian Supreme Court ordered the liquidation of @MemorialMoscow, the umbrella organisation of the Memorial Network. The interest here in Twitter and elsewhere was huge. /2
(link to a statement of Memorial in English)
memo.ru/en-us/memorial… Most of the headlines stated: Memorial has been liquidated. Most readers apparently understood: That's it! But that's not true. Today the Moscow City Court is deciding on the fate of the @hrc_memorial. But even, if the outcome will be the same as yesterday, that won't mean .../3

Erklärung von Memorial
Zur Auflösung von Memorial International
Am 28. Dezember 2021 hat der Oberste Gerichtshof der Russischen Föderation die Auflösung von Memorial International beschlossen./2

memo.ru/ru-ru/memorial… Der formale Vorwand für die Auflösung ist laut Auflösungsantrag der Generalstaatsanwaltschaft das Fehlen der Kennzeichnung einiger Veröffentlichungen als von einem „ausländischen Agenten“ stammend. Im Laufe des Prozesses haben wir überzeugend zeigen können, .../3

The Supreme Court has decided to "liquidate" @MemorialMoscow. What will now happen?
1. Memorial has now 30 days to appeal. The next (and only) appeal court is the executive committee of the Supreme Court.
2. In a few days Memorial will get the reasons for the judgement. /2 Then we will get to know how the "liquidation" will take place, what will be with the Memorial office in Moskau, the archive, library, museum etc. For the time being Memorial has still the keys.
3. The decision effects Memorial International (MI) only (at least so far). /3

Quick first take on the newest attack on @MemorialMoscow.
1. The letter today from the Russian Supreme Court about a hearing on 25 Nov. about the liquidation of Memorial implies that the case has been in the making for quite sole time. /2 2. That sheds new light on the physical attack on Memorial's office four weeks ago. Then a group of 30 young men stormed the scene of a film screening, followed by a 6 hour long interrogation of Memorial and its guest by the police and different security agencies. /3

Public statement by International Memorial
On 11 November 2021 we were informed by the Supreme Court that the General Prosecutor’s Office has requested the liquidation of International Memorial because of “systematic violations of the law on foreign agents”memo.ru/ru-ru/memorial… The law obliges so-called foreign agents to signify their status in public statements. The court hearing is scheduled for 25 November 2021.

Erklärung von Memorial International
 
Am 11. November 2021 sind wir vom Obersten Gericht darüber informiert worden, dass die Generalstaatsanwaltschaft die Liquidation von Memorial International mit der Begründung  beantragt hat, …/2 …Memorial  habe „systematisch das Gesetz über „ausländische Agenten“ verletzt“. Dabei geht es um die verpflichtende Kennzeichnung öffentlicher Äußerungen. Die Gerichtsverhandlung ist für den 25. November angesetzt.
Wir haben wiederholt erklärt,…/3

The raid of Memorial’s office in Moscow on Thursday evening has left a new, in my opinion soon iconic picture illustrating the state of freedom in Putin’s Russia: The office doors of the country’s best-known rights defenders locked with handcuffs. Now, two days ahead we, Memorial and many others, are still trying to make sense of this. This is, what I think so far.
1. The raid was planned and administered by state agencies, may be by the Kremlin.

Navalny’s return, his arrest and the protest. A first quick thread
1. Navalny in Germany had rot make a difficult choice: to stay in exile and become insignificant or to return to stay significant (and may be even rise more), but under risk for his freedom and life. /2 2. I can’t imaging that Navalny and his team thought that his return and even his arrest might provoke a „revolutionary situation“ in Russia like we’ve seen in Ukraine earlier or Belarus now. he’s a too experienced politician for such a misjudgment. He’s playing the long game./3

It’s done. I’m a Sputnik now! I’ve just got my first shot of the Russin vaccine at a mobile vaccination station in Central Moscow. In there weeks I will get the second one. Now feeling a bit lightheaded, but that may be a psychological reaction. How was it and why I did it? /2 The station is located on the second floor of a big food court in a former trolleybus depot on Lesnaya Street near the Belorussian Railway Station. The for court itself was packed with people. Almost none wearing a mask. A paradise for each virus. The vaccination was very.../3

Weiter hohe Ansteckungsraten in Moskau (und ganz RUS), trotzdem überstürzte Aufhebung des Lockdowns ab morgen. Was steckt dahinter?
Kurz und allgemein: Putin ist in der nächsten Legitimationskrise. Wie kam es? Zustimmung geht seit 2018 runter. /2 Die Wirkung der Krimannexion, die Putin in schwindelnde Höhen von 80% gehoben hatte, ist vorbei. Seit 2013 ist RUS in der Wirtschaftskrise. Seit Wiederwahl im März 2018 denken alle (Politiker/innen) zudem vorwiegend über das "Problem 2024" nach. /3