Market Overview: Analyzing the Last 30 Days through Index Breakdown, Relative Strength Segments, Sectors, Industry Groups, and Liquid Mega Caps

1. Segment

All segments across small, mid, large, and mega caps in value, core, and growth remain negative in 1-month % performance, but growth $IJK, $IJT, $IVW are outperforming their value and core counterparts within each market cap category.

1-month % comparison to index, $IVW is -5.47% vs $QQQ & $QQQE -6.33% and -6.84% respectively. 2. Sector RS % Sorted, Equal Weight vs Cap Weight

I strongly recommend reviewing the technical charts of $XLP, $XLU, $RSPS, and $RSPU amid this month-long selloff

Consumer Staples $XLP & $RSPS are the only sectors to eke out gains among the 11 sectors in both equal-weighted and cap-weighted formats. At RS % level, Utilities, Consumer Staples, Industrials, and Real Estate is outperforming the market index at both $SPY, $RSP and $QQQE level.

$KC - A Breakdown of My Trade on $KC's +180% Move in a Month (Scans, Watchlist Management, Entry Day Insights, and Systematic Risk Management for Holding)

Rather than replying to individual DMs about my $KC position (ironically, my earlier post was about $FBTC), I decided it’s better to share this as part of the free educational content for everyone to benefit from.

Here are a few key points about the share structure of $KC before the breakout, so you can adjust your screening parameters if needed. This is the type of stock profile that typically shows up in the 'Top 100 Performance% Stocks' annually. It's also why I tend to focus on small to mid-cap stocks most of the time.

Share Structure Before Breakout at $3
i) Market Cap: $700M USD (Current: $2B USD)
ii) ADR%: 5.7% (Current: 10.8%)
iii) IPO Timer: 4.5 Years ago
iv) Outstanding Share Float: 250M
v) Avg (50) $ Vol: $35M USD/day
vi) Avg (50) Share Volume: 4M/day

1. 1st move back above 200-MA after 1 year, +80% with RS during the 2 weeks.

$KC will initially show up on your '1-Month Strongest Move' screener. I move the entire list (which includes $KC) to my watchlist, awaiting a higher low swing to confirm a character change.

2. Higher Low may be in place at this point with price contraction within a symmetrical triangle. I abolutely pay more attention to stocks when price contract along with ALL moving averages contracts together. (10, 20, 50, 100, 150, 200 DMA)

$KC remains in watchlist, but will begin to keep appearing in my 'Screener within Watchlist' based on technical price compression.

3. Entry day on 5/11; here are some qualification

i) it broke out of a 2 week technical triangle pattern and consolidated range
ii) it broke out with high RVOL (RVOL was 40% in 10mins of open)
iii) LoD was only 40% (i skip trade beyond 60%. I want high possibility of position ending the day with unrealized profit, not near entry price)

Entry day is T. 3 stop set based on 33% stop level from entry to LoD. I do not consolidate and adjust my stops to breakeven (avg price) until T+3 days

T+3 = 33% size down (immediate partial profit taking or shaving risk down on trade that did not follow through but still hovering above avg entry as I have tight stops (since I only do execution when price action presents entry to LoD below 60%). All stops are consolidated to breakeven level on 1 full singular size.

Read more here on my detailed approach to risk management within a singular trade: x.com/jfsrevg/status…

4. Day 4 onwards is all mental stop on 10-MA. I do not mess with the trade if it doesn't close below 10-MA.

5. This trade did not close below 10-MA at all even at 13 x ATR% from 50-MA currently (highest ever). No reason to sell everything, but you have every reason to sell some pieces into strength at extension beyond 10 x ATR% beyond 50-MA.

To be fair, nobody will know the outcome on the day their trade execution; but what I strongly advise is to adhere to the principle of law of large number and you need to have this few things right;

i) make sure your screener gets u the setup before they MOVE, not after (i do not believe in high volume scan, you have already missed the most optimal entry day and the risk/reward is skewed after it. Try volume based high RVOL 'at time' scan instead during live market at minimum. High volume scan works best only as post continuation base setup, and the perfect entry spot often is a few weeks after that result appear)

ii) have a entry rule that stack the odds of position ending the day with unrealized profit. LoD 60% rule, high RVOL etc are my 'secret'

iii) ensure you have non-discretionary profit taking/stop loss rule. you cannot second guess the market, and u need to keep your emotion in check. you won't be able to hold a big runner if you like to second guess 'top' and 'bottom' in the market. the trades that can move needle in your annual performance % are trades that you never expect to do what they are doing. they make moves against basic human instinct.

iv) you need to know when to go 'heavy' vs 'light' in terms of trade frequency and activity. $KC trade was taken right on the day market bounce off it's rising 50-MA, before subsequent market gap up to reclaim 10 & 20-MA. Market index chart eg. $SPY $RSP $QQQ are great to cushion you when to layer your risk or release the pedal. I will never take on risk when $SPY is 4 x ATR% from 50-MA when it historically pullback from 5 x ATR% from 50-MA. I am pretty certain $KC sort of move will never happen in any stock at this juncture of the market. You need to stack every single possible odds to let the trade work in your favor, and the current market extension now is a headwind more than a tailwind.

v) repetition & refine; do this 100 times, go through your trade data and refine. do it another 100 times again, go through your trade data and refine. in a year, you will be able to refine up to 4 times at least. you only can get better if you refine your trading based on your trade journal. you can't escape this part of the work, please.

I hope this is helpful, it's just some basic principle, math and plenty of repetition in trading for me.

If you find this type of content valuable, do retweet ♾ so I know what sort of things to share in this space during my free time. @stonkypits this will be helpful for you

This is my priority list from end of week screening.

Top 41 growth stock ideas, sorted by industry group
$ONON $ZS $APLD $AMSC $COHR $BROS $RIOT $NET $ACVA $SE $GLBE $COIN $HOOD $TPG $BTBT $RELY $DKNG $AESI $CCJ $TTD $S $GTLB $APP $PLTR $SNOW $TOST $LYFT $CLBT $DDOG $CDE $IAG $NGD $SILV $EQX $FLYW $CAVA $OUST $RMBS $EVGO $CVNA $AIOT

Filters:
- Market Cap: > $150M USD
- Latest Quarterly Sales Growth: > 25% YoY
- 60-Day Average Volume: > 800K
- ADR: > 3%
- Recent Trend: 10-EMA above 20-SMA
- Compression: 1-week change between -5% and +5% - 200-MA Below Price

PS: I did not add outstanding shares float filter as requested by some last week. A 150M cut off will give condense to 17 result (recommended) Strongest Segments - If you notice the development of 1-month RS on histogram basis, @dryan310 is certainly spot on with his call for mid cap level strength on 21/11 (that's 6 bar from last candle)👍

Top 100 Performing Stocks YTD (ADR%)

97% have ADR% >2%
89% have ADR% > 3%
70% have ADR% >4%
47% have ADR% >5%
30% have ADR% >6%

https://twitter.com/jfsrevg/status/1852536177523581439

45 out of 100 Exceeds 1 Mil Average Share Vol (60 Days)

96% have ADR% >2%
89% have ADR% >3%
60% have ADR% >4%
36% have ADR% >5%
20% have ADR% >6%

Systemizing profit taking for me, with some nuances highlighted;

1. Entry Day = Day 0, 3 stops at 33% level to final stop (usually LoD). 33% net size at each level.

2. If profit to risk exceeds 2x in day 0-2, i will shave 33% off. all 3 stops level will be maintained, have size adjusted to the net balance qty. I have highlighted several post on managing risk with 3 segregate stops to reduce your 1R loss even 0.6 to 0.8R. 1R loss is not 1R, more often than not it is 1.03 to 1.3R with slippage, spread, borrwing etc depending on liquidity of the securities on average period, and at time of explosive move u saw it is already making.

3. Day 3 = 33% size down (immediate partial profit taking or shaving risk down on trade that did not follow through but still hovering above avg entry as I have tight stops (since I only do execution when price action presents entry to LoD below 60%). All stops are consolidated to breakeven level on 1 full singular size.

4. Day 4 onwards is all mental stop on 10-MA. I do not mess with the trade if it doesn't close below 10-MA.

eg. If close below 10-MA on Day 8, stop remains at breakeven level on Day 9 and I will let market trade for a opening range of 5 minutes and adjust my breakeven stop to the low of the opening range (ORL) and let it the market take it out.

If stop not taken out by EOD of Day 9, during pre-market routine i will adjust back to breakeven, and reset new ORL for Day 10. I repeat this process until it get taken out. The rationale is to hold onto your winning trade as long as possible with minimal sacrifice or unrealize profit. Study my $XLU entry on 9th July. I'm still holding, and even added along the way up today (86 calendar days and running).

5. Some nuances to consider;

i) if I were to take a catalyst gap trade eg. 1/10 (Day 0) $UNFI +100% surprise beat in EPS and intraday hit 10 x ATR% extension to 50-MA. When $UNFI hit 2x profit-risk in full size within 25 mins of the trade, I take 33% size off. It continue to follow through and hit 10 x ATR% extension from 50-MA. It is extremely unlikely for me to even be aware of this because I usually shut off after 3 hours from open and let my stops take care of my open heat risk. I will let Day 1 open and size down further 33% of net size as partial profit taking. When a trade ran up exceeding 4x profit to risk before my Day 4 breakeven, i will definitely consolidate all risk to a singular stop at breakeven. I am taking the risk of losing the remaining unrealized profit but it definitely don't make sense to visit losing range (below entry) by maintaining stop at 33%/66% and LoD stop at this parabolic point.

ii) if i were to hold a swing trade beyond day 4 (all stops already consolidated at breakeven with partial profit taking already taken place), and trade continue to trend much faster than 50-MA to give me a 8-10x ATR% extension from 50-MA, this is a partial profit taking alert for me to sell on strength. eg. size down 33% of net size and readjust breakeven stop quantity accordingly. stop is always at breakeven with mental stop at 10-MA.

iii) if Day 0 entry executed, and hit my first 33% level stop or even slice through to 66% level stop (2 stops trigger) before Day 4, i will always adjust a horizontal price alert to previous day high (the stop day), and if it trigger, i will add size inverse pyramid method (eg. 10,000 shares in, 6,666 shares stopped out and nett 3,334 shares. I will add 50% of 3,334 size (1,667 size) bringing me back to 50% net size instead of 33% net size). By doing so, if trade turn south to LoD stop on the singular day, u will not be hit risk exceeding 1R even with attempt to re-scale back up.

iv) In holding a trade beyond Day 4 (with consolidated stop at breakeven at nett size), if there were to be a sideway price consolidation setup below 4x ATR% from 50-MA, i will inverse pyramid add 50% size of my nett size. @Qullamaggie treat it as a separate new setup but i prefer managing the same ticker as a single trade. By adding smaller size up this way, your avg price to the trade will not be severely disrupted and will bound to be below your 10-MA mental stop. You can continue to trail the trade like it was but with more potential profit trajectory to the trade.

v) gap down open occasion below 10-MA, the routine i take is the same as 4. on ORL.

The way I manage profit sizing and adjust stops in a sequential manner is aimed at reducing monthly drawdown % and achieving a smoother equity curve on a MoM basis.

As your equity grows (especially when it surpasses your absolute dollar risk tolerance relative to your monthly expenses), seeing unrealized profit drop from, say, +$500,000 to +$280,000 in a single session can be hard to handle, even if you're following textbook rules. I believe not many can emotionally withstand holding 8-10 full-sized trades with 80% portfolio utilization, especially when trading with a bankroll that significantly impacts their quality of life and that of their dependents. example

https://x.com/jfsrevg/status/1803444884059332897?t=wfMqKuhspHd-ioqBaNAVxg&s=19

My Pre-Open Routine (30 Minutes Before Market Opens) Using Free Tools

In addition to the usual position management (stop adjustment), post-market screening, reviewing the daily biggest movers list (their catalysts) and, ETFs price action development, there are specific activities I adhere to 30 minutes before the market opens. These include identifying substantial premarket movers as potential ideas and quickly scanning economic or stock news that could act as catalysts.

I hope you find some of these tools useful. 1. 5 Things to Know (CNBC)

Bookmark this website. It’s a quick 3-minute read to keep you ahead of the most important news for the trading day. The latest '5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens' is available 2 hours before the market opens on any trading day.

cnbc.com/5-things-to-kn…

By Popular Demand: Spreadsheet Tutorial for Creating Your Own FREE Relative Strength Histogram (Both Stock and ETF), that Updates Daily After Close.

As requested by many of you, I will do my best to break down the steps and details so you can build your own RS tracking list of stocks, along with sector and industry group ETFs.

For reference to my ETF listings (my preference is Equal Weight listings, which take precedence over cap-weighted ETFs, eg. XSD over. SMH), please refer to the post below.

x.com/jfsrevg/status…
1. List down the tickers. I highly recommend you structured them in a efficient way to access them (eg. Main Component Index -> Sector -> Industry Groups -> Stocks). Put 'SPY' as the first, it will be the main reference point.

2. Convert them to 'Stock' data

3. The converted result as displayed in screenshot

Grateful for the years of independence, I'll be closing out this brokerage account. I'm thrilled to be embarking on my journey in the realm of fund management with acceptance of a direct closed ended investment from a global macro strategic fund into my one-person LLC. As the main PM with a minority stake going forward, I'll continue to share my weekly diary if time and jurisdiction permits.

For those keen on making their mark in the professional space, show your passion, be thoughtful and honest with your struggle. Leverage your Twitter presence to enhance visibility on LinkedIn as well, and consider joining USIC if you are confident of your skills. You never know whose attention you might catch.

Below are some Twitter posts and threads from the past which I hope could aid you on your trading journey. Ultimately, passion is the main ingredient to grow your proficiency in trading. 1. My @tradingview chart setup and the valuable free indicators I use.

https://x.com/jfsrevg/status/1649333754215948290

As the clock struck midnight in the Asia Pacific time zone, I celebrated not only my 35th birthday but also my 13th year of learning within the FinTwit community.

Within the realm of solitary trading, there are often instances when the sole source of joy, particularly during a… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 1. Date (Why it is 1-Day after the Market Close)

As most of you are aware, I am a Singaporean trader who primarily operates within the Asia Pacific time zone, even when I frequently travel on short-haul flights.

It's worth noting that, like many others, I have regular sleeping… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Over the years, I have received numerous DMs expressing interest in my @tradingview indicators and setup. I would like to take this opportunity to delve deeper into the subject and share 4 indicators that I believe can provide extreme value, especially for free users.… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 1. ESV Dashboard by @JohnMuchow, also provided by @DumbleDax

View quarterly earnings per share (EPS) and sales data. Optional visual icons can be shown comparing data on a Year-over-Year (YoY) and/or Quarter-on-Quarter (QoQ) basis.

Note: This indicator uses basic EPS data to… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

The Right Mindset

the right attitude and mental discipline doesn’t necessarily guarantee that u will be a profitable & successful trader but the wrong mindset almost guarantees certain failure.

here is what I have adjusted in 12 yrs 1. u have to be able to filter the information infront of u & focus on creating yr own system that fits yr own risk tolerance and return goals that are realistic.

unrealistic goals only create pressure to the grind & u are bound to lose focus and stray to undesirable outcome

came across a discussion & there's a misconception between 'Trading For A Living' and being a 'Full-Time Trader'

TFAL is the ultimate grail. it is extremely difficult to achieve even being profitable to a 7-fig trading a/c for 8yrs (I'm in #fintwit for 12 yrs 😅)

let me explain This thread is certainly not to dash your trading dream. Trading can certainly become a full-time career option.
Opportunities and accessibility in this era to trade execution, even sophisticated data that aids your edge, is dwindling it to a low barrier-to-entry profession
1/

Profitable trading is not about opinions, not about a prediction, great stock tips/picks, or more screen time.

Profitable trading is all about math, making more money on profitable trades than you lose on unprofitable trades.

How you do this is the details; read below Trading without understanding the math creates randomness and luck in your process. Trading is a numbers game, all great traders look at their own numbers as priority, over what the market is doing.