Jennifer Cabrera Profile picture
Editor of The Alachua Chronicle @AlachuaChronic1, contributor to @Rational_Ground Parler: @jenniferhcabrera
Phil Hershkowitz Profile picture ⚔️ Old Potato of Reason ⚔️ Profile picture Earl Belcher Jr Profile picture Charlie Ward Profile picture Potato Of Reason Profile picture 8 added to My Authors
27 Nov
The CDC held a press briefing on 11/19, and it's fairly stunning to see the misinformation they're propagating. Remember this when someone wants to hold the CDC up as a reliable source:

1/6
cdc.gov/media/releases…
"THERE IS SIMPLY NO MORE IMPORTANT TIME THAN NOW FOR EACH AND EVERY AMERICAN TO RE-DOUBLE OUR EFFORTS TO WATCH OUR DISTANCE, WASH OUR HANDS AND MOST IMPORTANTLY WEAR A MASK. MORE AND MORE SCIENTIFIC DATA IS SHOWING THAT MASKS CAN PROVIDE SOME PROTECTION TO THE WEARER."

2/6
Just look at the over-the-top language... "no more important time," "re-double our efforts," "more and more scientific data." There is nothing precise here until they say masks CAN provide protection. "More and more" data that they CAN?

3/6
Read 6 tweets
27 Nov
Cochrane has published an intervention review of physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses

Politicians are telling us that "we know masks work" and that we could "defeat" COVID if we only complied - but this shows NO EVIDENCE OF THAT.

1/7 Image
"Moderate certainty evidence that wearing a mask probably makes little or no difference to the outcome of [flu] compared to not wearing a mask... Harms were rarely measured and poorly reported."

2/7 Image
Quarantine led to fewer infections at work but more infections in households.

No RCTs on eye protection, gowns and gloves, or screening at entry ports.

3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
26 Nov
Some things to point out in this story, which is intended to get people to "behave" and wear masks:

gainesville.com/story/news/202…

1/5
"They are residents at UF Health Shands Hospital — where they say the ICU is filling with COVID-19 patients"

You can see here that there are 40 beds (15.38% of capacity) available right now:
bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/…

2/5
"About 70 percent of Shands’ overall patients are from outside the county."

How does that square with the idea that irresponsible students will lead to the ICU filling up?

3/5
Read 5 tweets
25 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/25/20

Florida reported a net of 97 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 39 different days, going back to July 3.

Changes by month: July (-1), August (+4), September (+15), October (+8), November (+71)

#RationalGround

1/8 Image
The "net" is the difference between today's total deaths and yesterday's total deaths, but each day's total is also the sum of additions and removals on that date.

For example, if 2 new deaths are reported on a date, that could be because 3 were added and 1 was removed

2/8
Peaks are 7/30-31 (234) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (226).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

3/8 Image
Read 8 tweets
24 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/24/20

Florida reported a net of 72 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 30 different days, going back to April 27.

Changes by month: April (+1), May (+1), July (+2), August (+1), September (+2), October (+6-1), November (+61-1)

#RationalGround
1/7 Image
The "net" is the difference between today's total deaths and yesterday's total deaths, but each day's total is also the sum of additions and removals on that date.

For example, if 2 new deaths are reported on a date, that could be because 3 were added and 1 was removed

2/7
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (226).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
23 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/23/20

Florida reported 94 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 46 different days, going back to July 13.

Changes by month: July (+2), August (+5), September (+14), October (+9), November (+64)

#RationalGround

1/7
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (226).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

2/7
Yesterday's deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 82
Minimum age: 29
Maximum age: 102
84% are 65 or older

3/7
Read 7 tweets
23 Nov
Here's the essay from @stacey_rudin that is read in the video: aier.org/article/who-de…

1/5
'In the COVID debate, there is a mainstream, “popular” narrative, and a competing, “unpopular” narrative — a “fringe.” The former exploits the common, mediocre desire to be “popular.” Joining the movement is easy...

2/5
'It results in back-pats, validation, and requires no uncomfortable confrontations.'

3/5
Read 5 tweets
22 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/22/20

Florida reported 61 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 44 different days, going back to July 28.

Changes by month: July (+1), August (+10), September (+18), October (+8), November (+24)

#RationalGround

1/7
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

2/7
Yesterday's deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 78
Minimum age: 41
Maximum age: 100
83% are 65 or older

3/7
Read 7 tweets
21 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/21/20

Florida reported a net of 41 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 33 different days, going back to July 28.

Changes by month: July (+2), August (+1), September (+3-2), October (+7-3), November (+34-1)

#RationalGround

1/7
The "net" is the difference between today's total deaths and yesterday's total deaths, but each day's total is also the sum of additions and removals on that date.

For example, if 2 new deaths are reported on a date, that could be because 3 were added and 1 was removed

2/7
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

3/7
Read 7 tweets
20 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/20/20

Florida reported 79 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 23 different days, going back to August 14.

Changes by month: August (+1), September (+2), October (+3), November (+73)

#RationalGround

1/6 Image
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

2/6 Image
Yesterday's deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 80
Minimum age: 44
Maximum age: 99
95% are 65 or older

3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
19 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/19/20

Florida reported a net of 79 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 34 different days, going back to July 12.

Changes by month: July (+2), August (+4), September (+9), October (+9-2), November (+58-1)

#RationalGround

1/7
The "net" is the difference between today's total deaths and yesterday's total deaths, but each day's total is also the sum of additions and removals on that date.

For example, if 2 new deaths are reported on a date, that could be because 3 were added and 1 was removed

2/7
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

3/7
Read 7 tweets
18 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/18/20

Florida reported a net of 87 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 45 different days, going back to July 25.

Changes by month: July (+2), August (+11-1), September (+6), October (+16), November (+53)

#RationalGround

1/8
The "net" is the difference between today's total deaths and yesterday's total deaths, but each day's total is also the sum of additions and removals on that date.

For example, if 2 new deaths are reported on a date, that could be because 3 were added and 1 was removed

2/8
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

3/8
Read 8 tweets
17 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/17/20

Florida reported 85 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 24 different days, going back to July 20.

Changes by month: July (+1), October (+10), November (+74)

#RationalGround

1/8
This chart shows more detail for recent weeks:

2/8
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

3/8
Read 8 tweets
16 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/16/20

Florida reported 41 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 19 different days, going back to October 16.

Changes by month: October (+24), November (+17)

#RationalGround

1/8
This chart shows more detail for recent weeks:

2/8
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

3/8
Read 8 tweets
15 Nov
I don't expect Florida's COVID deaths to trend toward zero any time soon; we will probably see at least 40-50/day (similar to a normal FL flu season).

When every person in LTC is tested every 2 weeks, the probability of getting a false positive increases with time.

1/4
As the months go on and the number of tests increases, that probability gets VERY high, and it only takes one positive.

It's clear from reviewing death certificates that any previous positive test goes on the cert, and those are counted as COVID deaths.

2/4
Examples from Florida:

- 57M, PART 1: a. Coronary artery disease, PART 2: asymptomatic COVID-19 positive swab

- 92F, PART 1: a. Sequelae of femoral neck fracture b. Blunt impact to extremity, PART 2: Asymptomatic COVID-19 infection, hypertensive heart disease

3/4
Read 4 tweets
15 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/15/20

Florida reported a net of 29 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 22 different days, going back to August 15.

Changes by month: August (-1), September (-1), October (+17-1), November (+15)

#RationalGround

1/8
The "net" is the difference between today's total deaths and yesterday's total deaths, but each day's total is also the sum of additions and removals on that date.

For example, if 2 new deaths are reported on a date, that could be because 3 were added and 1 was removed

2/8
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

3/8
Read 8 tweets
14 Nov
The Gainesville Sun is running a disparaging piece on me in tomorrow's print edition. This thread summarizes my response, or you can read the whole thing with links to references here 👇

1/13

alachuachronicle.com/legacy-media-o…
Nathan Crabbe, Opinions Editor at the Gainesville Sun, emailed me: “I’ve been following the coverage of your analysis of COVID-19 death certificates. I was planning to write my Sunday column about that and Gov. DeSantis’ other steps to raise questions about COVID reporting.”
2/13
Note that he wasn’t at all interested in my article about COVID-19 death certificates; he was interested in the COVERAGE of it. That “coverage” was mainly a hit piece in the Miami Herald

3/13

alachuachronicle.com/death-certific…
Read 13 tweets
14 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/14/20

Florida reported a net of 44 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 27 different days, going back to July 25.

Changes by month: July (+1-1), August (+1-1), October (+14), November (+32-2)

#RationalGround

1/7
The "net" is the difference between today's total deaths and yesterday's total deaths, but each day's total is also the sum of additions and removals on that date.

For example, if 2 new deaths are reported on a date, that could be because 3 were added and 1 was removed

2/7
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

3/7
Read 7 tweets
13 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/13/20

Florida reported 73 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 24 different days, going back to October 15.

Changes by month: October (+26), November (+47)

#RationalGround

1/7
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

2/7
Yesterday's deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 79
Minimum age: 35
Maximum age: 98
88% are 65 or older

3/7
Read 7 tweets
12 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/12/20

Florida reported a net of 72 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 25 different days, going back to October 12.

Changes by month: October (+43), November (+29)

#RationalGround

1/6 Image
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

2/6 Image
Yesterday's deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 78
Minimum age: 28
Maximum age: 105
87% are 65 or older

3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
11 Nov
Big Media is going after me and Kyle Lamb, presumably to push a false narrative that any further reopenings in Florida are based on twisting or suppressing data.

1/4
Florida's COVID data reporting is probably the best in the country, which is why we know that nothing catastrophic happened after reopening 6.5 weeks ago.

2/4
Hospitalizations for respiratory viruses are ticking up everywhere, as they do in flu season every year. This year there's no flu, just COVID.

The same thing is happening in states that are locked down with mask mandates.

Masks have not prevented these increases anywhere.

3/4
Read 4 tweets