Projecting Win-Loss Records for Every NFL Team

This post contains (in order)

1. Projected NFL Standings
2. Team Tiers and Quick Write-Ups for all 32 Teams
3. Strength of Schedule Analysis
4. Win Probabilities for each Team in all 272 Games

📌 Tip: Bookmark this post for when you have the time to dive in. I reveal my entire process in this thread (seriously). 1. Projected NFL Standings

For those that want the quick and dirty answer, this is for you.

However, I believe it's much more important to understand *how* I arrived at these win-loss numbers (keep reading)

You should be drafting WRs early in fantasy football IF they have top-12 upside

There are 3 (!!!) WRs going in the first 5 rounds of fantasy drafts who do NOT have top-12 upside

⬇️ Let's quickly dive into the research I did, and which 3 WRs you should be fading ⬇️ The past 10 years of top-12 fantasy WRs (120 WRs total, min. 12 games played)

119 of the 120 had this in common...

They were on teams that were above average (top-16) in the NFL in AT LEAST 1 of these 3 categories

1. Pass Attempts
2. Passing Yards
3. Passing TDs

⬇️ cont. ⬇️

🚨 NFL Draft Primer (Thread) 🚨

Want to get caught up on the most fantasy relevant players in the 2022 NFL Draft in UNDER 5 minutes??

Order will be QB, RB, WR, then TE

Here. We. Go. ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Malik Willis (QB) - Fast/elusive (cross between Lamar/Hurts as a rusher) + huge arm. Lots of INTs + sacks taken at Liberty. Project QB that's an upside play. Most likely QB1 off the board

⬇️⬇️

Did you know @PrizePicks has NFL Futures ??!!

THREAD TIME 🧵🔥

I'll go through every parlay that I put $50 onto and WHY

If you want, you can make the EXACT same parlays right NOW

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Let's dive in ⬇️⬇️ Simple, fade aging RBs

Dalvin Cook has played 5 seasons and only has 1 (!) season above 1159 rushing yards (the line is 1300.5 yards)

Derrick Henry will be over 28.5 years old when the 2022 season starts and has a metal plate in his foot

Pre-Draft Dynasty Ranks (THREAD)

You're welcome, this should be paywalled and contains highly proprietary info

QB:

1. Malik Willis
2. Desmond Ridder
3. Matt Corral
4. Kenny Pickett
5. Sam Howell

WR is next... WR:

1. Garrett Wilson
2. Drake London
3. Jameson Williams
4. Treylon Burks
5. Chris Olave
6. Skyy Moore
7. George Pickens
8. Jahan Dotson
9. Christian Watson
10. John Metchie
11. Jalen Tolbert
12. cont. ⬇️⬇️

A big WILD CARD WEEKEND thread

Going over all 6 matchups

A few key notes for each team to help you in DFS

Thread is in order of games played
LV at CIN
NE at BUF
PHI at TB
SF at DAL
PIT at KC
ARI at LAR

Let's get started 🔥🔥

⬇️⬇️⬇️ LV at CIN, 48.5 over/under, -5.5
Implied points: LV 21.5, CIN 27

My favorite way to play this game is Burrow double stacks with a mix of Mixon/Chase/Higgins as the preferred stacking options

Boyd's target depth isn't conducive to DFS. If Boyd has a good game and posts 8-80-1,

The BIG Week 16 thread is HERE

1-2 observations for EVERY team

Advanced stats and actionable info

A few players' usage even surprised me 🤫

All advice geared toward winning your fantasy championship in Week 17 🔥

Let's begin with the Cardinals ⬇️⬇️⬇️ James Conner OUT Week 16, already a game-time decision Week 17

Even if Conner plays, start Edmonds in your FF championship

Week 16
Edmonds - 59 snaps, 16-56-1 rushing, 19 routes, 9 tgt, 8-71 receiving, 26.7 PPR
Jonathan Ward - 9 snaps, 1 carry, 3 routes, 0 tgt

Bell. Cow.

Also

The BIG Week 14 Recap thread is HERE

1-2 observations for every team from Week 14

Actionable info for Week 15 onward

Let's begin as always with the Cardinals, and the news that Hopkins is most likely OUT for the rest of the season

How does this affect the other ARI WRs? ⬇️⬇️ Week 14 vs LAR

AJ Green - 37 routes, 10 tgt, 7-102-0 (159 air)
Kirk - 33 routes, 6 tgt, 3-86-0 (136 air)
Ertz - 36 routes, 7 tgt, 5-42-0 (33 air)
Rondale - 25 routes, 4 tgt, 3-5-0 (18 air)

Green/Kirk/Ertz all strong starts without Hopkins, Rondale someone to monitor for ⬇️⬇️

The BIG Week 11 recap thread

1-2 observations for EVERY team from Week 11

Advanced stats, actionable info, etc.

Let's start with ARI:

Rondale Moore's role is basically that of a pass-catching RB

In Week 11, he played 33 snaps, ran 21 routes, and was targeted on OVER half of them (!) 11 tgt, 11-51-0 on those 21 routes

Totaled 18 air yards, for an aDOT of 1.64 🥶

Very unique usage, and assuming Hopkins comes back after their Week 12 bye, unlikely he sees this volume again. Bench stash, maybe

Conversely, Zach Ertz is having a surprisingly great ⬇️⬇️

First Mover (DFS and Player Props with Josh Larky) twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1… WOOOOO!!!! That was a FUN show

Who knew getting up at 5am to prep for the 6am live stream could end well?!

BIG WEEK 9 RECAP THREAD

Below, find 1-2 observations for each team from Week 9 as I work on Week 10 projections

Let's start with Arizona

Chase Edmonds went down early, and James Conner was an absolute BELL COW

Conner- 52 snaps, 21 carries, 15 routes, 5 targets (cont.)

⬇️⬇️⬇️ for a 19% tgt share, and 5 RZ opportunities

Eno Benjamin played 17 snaps, had 9 carries, and ran 2 routes with no targets

Eno is a priority pickup due to his all-purpose skillset and Conner's lengthy injury history

Edmonds out most, if not all, of the FF season

On to ATL ⬇️⬇️