EVP for policy, @amprog. Previously: deputy director of National Econ Council in Obama WH, policy @hillaryclinton, @centeronbudget. All views my own.
Sep 21, 2020 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
President Trump’s move to push through a Supreme Court nominee is rightfully drawing attention to the Trump admin’s ongoing attempt to overturn the Affordable Care Act through the courts.
I thought I’d share a few resources on what it would mean for Trump to get his way 1/
If successful, the lawsuit Trump supports would cause 20 million to lose coverage and put 135 million with pre-existing conditions at risk (those are pre-COVID estimates)
Quick thread: the Trump admin has been pretty unclear about what it means by an "EO on unemployment insurance," but the main idea I've seen floated is notable in both how insufficient and counter-productive it would be 1/
Per Politico, the Trump admin is considering allowing states to use money from a $150 bn CARES Act fund to top off benefits, in lieu of the Federal $600 bump that expired almost two weeks ago politico.com/news/2020/08/0… 2/
Jul 13, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
This story does a great job illustrating a point I tried to make in this piece -- the economy isn't set up for an "in-between" space between open and closed, and a failed government response is forcing devastating choices that could be avoided 1/ washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/0…
The failed public health response has created uncertainty over how long before we get to "normal." And a lack of policy clarity means small businesses, state/local governments, workers and households all make decisions that hurt public health and the recovery in the meantime 2/
Jun 11, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
NEW: @olinsky and I have a new brief out about how the Trump admin’s approach to COVID-19 forces workers into a devastating choice between health and economic security americanprogress.org/issues/economy…
A failure to put in place effective public health measures or workplace safety standards - plus efforts to undermine UI and other protections - risks both increasing spread of the virus and slowing economic recovery
Jun 5, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
A2 p. 1: The Black-white unemployment rate is a persistent feature in our labor market, when the economy is growing or when it is in recession -- and Jobs Day discussions often wrongly accept it as a fact of life, rather than an outrage and a policy failure #beyondthenumbers
A2 p. 2: Labor market discrimination, mass incarceration, enormous racial wealth gaps, residential segregation -- simultaneously legacies of history and ongoing features of our economy and society -- all contribute #beyondthenumbers
May 21, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
By allowing unemployment insurance to compensate workers for reduced hours while they stay on payroll, the work-sharing program could be ideal for many biz + employees. Yet only 143,000 ppl are using it, and that poor take-up highlights bigger problems w/ US crisis response 1/
First, it reflects chronic, often-intentional disinvestment in government infrastructure – making it hard to scale up a program that runs through the understaffed, overtaxed Unemployment Insurance system 2/
Apr 24, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I share many of @Neil_Irwin's fears (and agree w/ many of his post-'09 lessons) -- but I want to quibble with the framing that this is a mistake that the "United States" is making, when Democrats (elected and experts) are overwhelmingly pushing for much, much more
The debate over PPP extension this week was between one side that wanted to use the political urgency of a must-pass legislative moment to get more fiscal relief and one that wanted to use it to delay or prevent that relief
Apr 22, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
This point has gotten too little attention. PPP set up a purportedly universal program that had to be rationed not just because of limited money available, but because of limited admin capacity to get it out. But then it let banks be the sole arbiter of who got money first!
Under typical SBA guarantee programs, lenders are on the hook for some portion of the loan -- which requires them to make a determination of whether a small biz is creditworthy. So there's intentionally a role for banks to have discretion as to who gets an SBA loan or not.
Oct 19, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This is the problem: GOP claims on on health care are inaccurately framed as a pivot/reversal, rather than as lies about what the agenda they still hold would do.
There is some sort of collective forgetting about the ACA debate last year as though Republicans acknowledged repeal would undo pre-ex protections and have now changed course. They just lied about it last year, and they are repeating the lie now — just with slicker campaign ads.
Oct 2, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Worth remembering that in addition to Trump’s fraud, this story reflects a series of policy choices by conservatives in power — both by keeping loopholes open and by starving IRS resources that could stop criminal activity
Important to remember this story is both about Trump’s unique status as a grifter and all the ways in which mainstream GOP governance has permitted the ultra-rich to pass on their wealth untaxed and undertaxed as a matter of principle
Jul 2, 2018 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
man, @xwaldie and I really picked the wrong day to comically screw up our flight booking and accidentally end up in Brussels
I stand corrected, it is now very fun to be in my new favorite Belgian bar
Feb 12, 2018 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
So as explained in this post, the Trump White House tried to sneak in a $122 billion cut to the main Federal transportation program in its budget -- among other infrastructure cuts -- and hope no one noticed 1/ cbpp.org/blog/trump-15-…
The basics: if Congress doesn't do anything after 2020, spending from the Highway Trust Fund -- supports highways as well as transit -- drops sharply. Past Congresses have fixed this problem. The Trump budget wouldn't -- leading to cuts of $20 billion a year by end of decade 2/
Feb 9, 2018 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I get this instinct, but I think it really misses the mark, esp. when it comes to mandatory health, food assistance and low-income programs -- where the GOP willingness to make deep cuts hasn't been taken seriously enough over past 8 yrs, in my opinion 1/
Since first Ryan budgets, I think press has often been quite dismissive of idea that GOP would ACTUALLY pursue deep cuts to health care (esp. Medicaid) alongside unpaid for tax cuts -- before it became the actual '17 legislative agenda 2/
Jan 25, 2018 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Totally 100% on the level to:
- Propose $200 billion in infrastructure
- Claim states/cities/etc. will magically pony up another $800 billion+
- Say the $200 billion will be paid for by cutting other infrastructure programs
And then call it a $1 trillion plan
(Snippet from @fischlerCQ's story that is paywalled)
Dec 21, 2017 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I may be a lonely voice here, but I think fact that Congress is jamming through a $750 million cut to public health and disease prevention so that they can go home for Christmas tonight is bad -- and should get more attention
The background: the bill that Congress is passing to keep the government open also includes $750 million in cuts to a prevention fund created by the ACA that pays for immunizing kids, infectious disease control, etc. apha.org/topics-and-iss…
Dec 20, 2017 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Trump and GOP leaders made big promises about their tax plan -- and then passed a bill that did something different. Here's a thread of seven broken promises: cbpp.org/blog/republica…
Broken promise #1: Mitch McConnell: "[N]obody in the middle class is going to get a tax increase.” Here's what actually happens over time:
Dec 6, 2017 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This situation is so bonkers. The folks writing this bill likely made a several hundred-billion dollar mistake in their rush to pass something on Friday.
What you don't get when things are dropped onto the floor:
- JCT analysis of distributional impacts
- Outside analysis of distribution/cost/econ impact
- Expert take on how provisions can be gamed
- Ability of members to make further changes
- Any chance for public input
Nov 22, 2017 • 13 tweets • 17 min read
The GOP tax plan is the kind of bill that will make many people unhappy, but they'll all be unhappy in their own way.
Ahead of this holiday weekend, here's a thread of some of the best quick reads (from @CenterOnBudget and others) depending on what you care about most:
@CenterOnBudget Are you worried about passing a bill that is skewed towards the wealthy? Here are the basics on how the Senate bill gives the biggest benefits to high-income people cbpp.org/research/feder…
Nov 16, 2017 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
We're seeing a lot of Republicans try to make the case that any coverage losses from mandate repeal are "voluntary" - and so the impact isn't harmful. That's just not true. 1/
To start, some people lose coverage do so because premiums spike as a result of the worsened risk pool. These people lose health care because they simply can't afford it any more. 2/
Nov 15, 2017 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Listening to GOP legislators, it's clear many are using misleading numbers to delude themselves into imagining this bill isn't politically toxic
"Every income group is a winner on average" --ignoring that (a) tens of millions of people pay more and (b) those averages include corporate tax cuts no one sees on their returns
