IEN Senior Fellow in American Foreign Policy and International Security @IBEI, Visiting Fellow @warstudies and @OxfordCCW
Aug 21, 2022 • 25 tweets • 7 min read
As we approach the 6-month mark since the start of Russia's large-scale aggression against Ukraine, and with recent @washingtonpost revelations about the pre-war period, I offer some thoughts about Putin's decision to go to war and the concepts behind it 1/
As I will try to show, this war could have looked very different, w/ alternative start dates, end states, etc. all predicated on the concept of war at the heart of Putin's decision (perhaps shared by others in his circle) 2/
Jul 10, 2022 • 25 tweets • 6 min read
Russia/Ukraine: A Thread on "Victory"
"Nothing stands between us and our victory, except defeat!"
So says Roderick Spode (Oswald Mosley caricatured by P.G. Wodehouse) - the 'amateur dictator' and designer of the collapsible Channel bridge intended to bring down all the invading foreign hoards 1/
Jun 8, 2022 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
On the question of whether NATO should increase its troop levels on the Eastern Flank I offer some thoughts below ...
For a long time I was opposed, essentially for 2 reasons. First, I dislike the trip-wire concept in principle as it effectively means there is no confidence in Article 5 - the only way to trigger an Alliance response to aggression is by maintaining weak forward deployed forces
May 1, 2022 • 25 tweets • 8 min read
As a US intel analyst in the mid-2000s responsible for drafting and editing morning briefings, and more recently as an official sitting in on NATO morning briefings, I’d like to offer a few observations on the UK DI Ukraine updates 1/
On a personal note, despite wanting to follow in 007’s footsteps, my intel career was limited to sitting behind a desk assigned to a dead-end shift-work job in the Pentagon basement editing the morning intel brief. Luckily escaped this hell to do a War Studies PhD instead 2/
Mar 5, 2022 • 10 tweets • 1 min read
Thread: Nine Images of the War in Ukraine
Russian Conscript
Shit Chinese tires
RPG attack. Flames. Smoke.
Bullets flying. Duck!
