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Joe Kelly Profile picture
Joe Kelly
@joekelly100
at play • heretic, probably • inexpert pathfinder • bitcoin critic/supervillain • may contain sarcasm
p rehmer Profile picture Michael Green Profile picture 2 subscribed
Sep 15, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Substantive? Ok your book is full of nonsense. The BS does a good job of ELI5'ing basic concepts like hard money, time preference, etc. but then it's also full of some spectacularly dumb claims & complete gibberish about how Bitcoin's security works. 1/

And when I say complete gibberish, I mean complete gibberish. This is so far from being correct it's ridiculous:

2/
Aug 30, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Bitcoin's transaction fees are not fine. Outside of short-lived speculative frenzies, blocks aren't full and total miner revenue from fees is in the $100s-of-thousands per day. 1/ In other words, at current usage levels, the BTC system is on a predictable path to eventual security failure (incentive incompatibility / economic instability) given the exponentially decaying block subsidy. Number go sideways from here = no bueno. 2/
Jun 26, 2021 • 21 tweets • 7 min read
I'd say @nntaleb's bitcoin paper is directionally correct, even if it's not 100% mechanically accurate. 1/n

Source: fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF.pdf

In other words, despite some errors and not getting all the way to the bottom of things, if you continue in the direction of inquiry which he's laying out, you will find the black swans. 2/
May 28, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Seems like the Bitcoin "energy debate" is being made complicated on purpose. 1/ You can explain it in 4 tweets if you're not trying to purposefully shape the information to win friends and influence people. 2/

May 20, 2021 • 4 tweets • 7 min read
@Nakadai_mon @profplum99 @bitcoin_lisa @jordanbpeterson @Breedlove22 @dergigi @aantonop - Climate is an absurd comparison
- It doesn't require G20 coordination (tho it's likely)
- Lightning doesn't work if you can't settle to the base layer
- Algo change doesn't work: the network is now more vulnerable. All you've done is restart exactly the same game at lower cost @Nakadai_mon @profplum99 @bitcoin_lisa @jordanbpeterson @Breedlove22 @dergigi @aantonop I.e. The state will now out-produce you on the new algo instead, even faster. Not to mention you just fucked over all honest miners who were invested in SHA256. So why would anyone invest in new gear to mine the new algo if it's just going to predictably end up in the same place?
May 20, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
If Bitcoin falls below $10k it starts to be in trouble technically - vulnerable to double-spends. (I.e. For profit, not even govt). 1/

This might even partly explain what happened last year. After the March crash, $5-6k going into the halving put the system in dangerous territory.

But then at just the right time it began a miraculous run as 'institutions entered the market via Tether'. 2/
Mar 11, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
“Putting energy into batteries is good. Therefore I declare that Bitcoin is a battery.”

Aside from not making sense, the economics of this don’t really work. Chips cost money. Bitcoin mining = wafer-thin margins. You can’t just keep adding hashrate... 1/ If everyone does this “battery” thing everywhere, it becomes unprofitable — for everyone. I.e. Profits are competed away and you spend $100k on chips with a lifetime expectation of earning <$100k worth of BTC. 2/
Mar 9, 2021 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
You don’t need a blockchain to use cryptographic signatures to provide high assurances on things. 1/ You don’t need a blockchain to have programmable money and contracts which execute automatically based on some external condition being fed into them. 2/
Dec 12, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Formal science has entered the chat.

“BDoS: Blockchain Denial of Service”
arxiv.org/abs/1912.07497

Now we’re getting somewhere. You kill blockchains by breaking the incentives. Not sure the attack in this paper would be effective, but it’s where the vulnerability is.

1/ Image The goal of a sabotage attack is to upset the game theory, system-wide (not just miners), so that the whole thing falls apart of its own accord, in a decentralised way, via the spontaneous action of the individuals involved.

2/
Aug 14, 2020 • 15 tweets • 6 min read
@balajis 4) Bitcoin can be attacked and shut down at any time by world governments, near-instantly, if they decide to. Gold can’t.

5) The difficulty and cost of mining gold on asteroids is far higher than shutting down Bitcoin. @balajis The attack vector is game theoretic.

1. Ban Bitcoin commercially and describe in detail how and why it’s the tool of choice for violent criminal organisations, wealthy tax avoiders, child pornographers, scammers, ransomware operators, and other socially destructive actors.