How did inflation blindside us this year? Here comes a thread. Our heat map showed how virtually no alarms were flashing 12 months ago, and how quickly and swiftly inflationary pressure broadened from there. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… via @bopinion At first, it wasn't stupid to think it might be transitory - which possibly led to a crucial mistake. Key was the gap between trimmed mean (excluding outliers in both directions) and core (excluding fuel and food). In May, the gap hit a record - suggesting all driven by outliers.

1) As the miserable year of 2020 reaches its end, it's time to return to the offices of Hindsight Capital LLC.

For those unfamiliar, this great, albeit imaginary, hedge fund invests with the benefit of a style guaranteed to beat all others: hindsight bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… 2) As such perfect vision would allow infinite returns, certain limits are imposed on Hindsight Capital’s managers:

🚫It can't trade during the year
🚫It can't use leverage
🚫It can't invest in individual stocks
✅It must make broader or sectoral bets
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…