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Jonathan Harrier, CMT Profile picture
Jonathan Harrier, CMT
@jonathanharrier
I post charts, backtests, trade strategies, and journal thoughts on abnormal market events. Nothing is advice, just information.
Feb 28, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Today:
1) $VIX crossed below its 50-ma but is still > 20
2) $VIX 50-ma is < 200-ma
3) $SPX is > 200-ma

First time in a year.

$SPX 3 months later, past 20 years (N=16)
100% were higher
+8.1% avg gain
-1.9% avg drawdown
+9.6% avg max gain over the 3 months

Event details 👇 Full study details can be seen via the backtest I ran using @MarketCharts
marketcharts.com/page/57f01dc4
Aug 14, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Rare breadth thrust on $SPX: Only 6 prior times (since 1985) when...

Fewer than 10% of $SPX stocks were under their 50-MA, then jumped to 90% above within 2 months

Avg returns of 23% a year later, but the very low interim drawdowns of -2.8% are the thing to see. 👇
1/3
 $SPY Items of note:
1) Not a statistically significant sample size, but all were higher after 3 months
2) R:R out a year is 8.2x
3) The low after 4/29/09 was Day 1
4) The low after 5/26/20 was Day 12 (not a typo)
See event specifics in table I ran via @MarketCharts below.
2/3
Jul 23, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
#Capitulation is not well understood. It means massive selling, where the bulk of likely sellers give up, en masse.
It does not usually mean "the bottom".
It does not require a $VIX jump or spiking put/call ratio.
Mid-June has many examples. Here are some...
(Thread 👇) Capitulation example #1:
Spike in 52-wk lows
$SPX new lows hit 42% on June 16, closed at 39%. Only 16 lower readings since 1985.
Jul 1, 2022 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
I’m reading through Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (Edwards & Magee) 7th Ed, 1998. The first edition came out in 1948. This thread contains book notes, excerpts, interesting bits. “The stock market goes right on repeating the same old movements and much the same routine.” Image
Dec 11, 2021 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
It's unfortunate how many on Twitter (even from notable names) only use Advance/Decline metrics as the only measure of breadth. Don't be so short-sighted that you miss opportunities. Study, learn, and apply for yourself. There are so many other breadth measures... $SPX $SPY 1/ Very strong breadth when considering that the % of $SPX stocks above their 10-day moving average just went from below 10% to 90% in less than 10 days. 2/ marketcharts.com/page/e5d862dd