With the introduction of Crafting, I think Top Shot has now set up the runway for almost every moment to be categorized into one of 5 buckets.
I’ll attempt to do my best at explaining what these are, and how each one has its own distinct value
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1. Moments that are valuable as a Collectible, even w/o additional utility
This is the smallest bucket of the five, and I would assume that over a longterm lens these are the moments that most closely mirror the cardboard market. As such, almost all of these moments have badges
Again a HUGE shoutout to @matteise for his amazingly comprehensive Tournament Binder. Every stat in the history of mankind
22-15 Round of 64 8-8 Round of 32
Total 57%
ML bets up +0.5un
1 Gonzaga -10 vs. 4 Arkansas
O/U 154.5
When favored by > 8pts, the #1 is 11-7 ATS compared to 5-6-1 ATS when < 5pts
When #1 faces team with KenPom better than 20th they are 18-12-2 ATS
When #1 scores > 70 (imp. total is 82.5), they are 23-10-1 ATS
The Pick: Gonzaga -10
Mar 15, 2022 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
NCAA #MarchMadness Bracket Trends thread…based on tournament data since 2010
Here’s a ton of trends that have held steady over the last 10+ years of madness. I typically use this as a tool to backcheck against once my bracket is filled out.
Here we go…
There has been an average of 9 upsets in the Round of 64 each year
2015 had the least with 5, and 2016 had the most with 13. There has been 4 years since 2010 that had 10 first round upsets
This one’s a no-brainer, make sure you aren’t just picking the lower seeds every game!
Nov 1, 2021 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Week 8 Cash Lineup review!
Late news regarding Ridley/JWilliams shook things up before lock
Was pretty locked into the following lineup since Fri (which is rare for me):
Hurts, Swift, Hendo, Ridley, Godwin, Higgins, Hubbard, Arnold, WAS
Ended up here and didn’t feel great tbh
Once Williams was ruled out Swift joined Henderson as the only real must plays on the slate for me. Both guys were projecting so high from a usage standpoint and their pricing was more than manageable. Made it easy to set RB spots and move on.
Mar 18, 2021 • 18 tweets • 5 min read
EVERY SINGLE FIRST ROUND MATCHUP
(Friday Edition)
🚨🔥HERE WE GO🚨🔥
Huge shoutout to @matteise for the amazing work on the Tournament Guide! I have a lot of hours logged in that thing this week.
Trends, Analytics, Bets for all 16 matchups...
#showmethedata (THREAD)
7 Florida (PK) vs. 10 Va. Tech (135)
When 7sd has 2PT% & 3PT% ranked 100th or better they are 13-5 SU 12-6 ATS.
When 10sd has KenPom worse than 50 the 7sd is 13-3 SU 10-6 ATS.
When 7sd has Adj Def Eff ranked 40 or better they are 22-9 SU 18-12-1 ATS
